Arlington Million Weekend

August 9 - 11:  Arlington Million Weekend

I truly couldn't have asked for a more successful Arlington Million weekend from my handicapping selections.  I always look forward to Million weekend as it holds a special spot in my memories AND I seem to always have very good success with my selections.  

It was in the spring of 2011 as I approached my first year of retirement that I made plans to visit Arlington for the second time.  I'd been there in 2007 on a whirlwind trip when Kim had a workshop to attend, so I flew up early in the morning, picked a car and drove to Arlington.  I'd emailed the staff and it was arranged for me to meet my favorite analyst and announcer, Lauren Massarella and John G. Dooley.  After the final race I drove back to the airport, dropped off the car and flew home, getting back around midnight!  Then came the 2011 Millions Day visit.  My original plan had been to be at Saratoga on the first day of school on the first official day of my retirement.  And that expanded into a visit to Arlington on Saturday; flew to Saratoga on Sunday; spent the day there and met Hall of Fame announcer Tom Durkin (above left), and flew home on Tuesday.  And the most recent visit came in 2014 when I met my buddy Keith at Arlington for a Million weekend track adventure.  I had a much better handicapping day on Friday than Saturday, but loved the experience.  I am tentatively planning to be there next summer!

Here's how the 2019 Millions Weekend unfolded......

Friday August 9
The kind of day I was about to have to kick off Million Weekend was foreshadowed when I was distracted and missed the first race of the day, but my top choice ran second :)  I then won the second (which was my "Best" of the day), and immediately thereafter the third.  Passed on the fourth, but my top choice was the winner, and then won the fifth.  A perfect three-for-three day was "interrupted" when my buddy Keith called and while I can't prove it, the pick I had in the 7th didn't even hit the board while I was talking with him.  Hung up and in the eighth I won again.  Coincidence that the ONLY loss for the day came when Keith was "with me?"  Hmmmm, I think not.  Still, I was pretty happy to kick off the big weekend with a 4-for-5 day at Monmouth!

Saturday August 10:  Arlington Million Day

I debated about how to play the day and even considered going to Gulfstream to play live.  But after looking at the entries for Gulfstream I could tell I'd have limited bets and probably would lose at least one or two because of the anticipated afternoon rains.  So in the end I handicapped both Monmouth and Arlington "seriously," and then gave a look at Saratoga, Gulfstream, and Del Mar trying to only pick runners I had a LOT of confidence in.  The result was a selections sheet with twenty-five selections that started at 12:45 and didn't end until 8:30 that night.  The first play of the day came in the Gulfstream opener, scheduled for the turf.  Sure enough, the rains from Friday had soaked the course enough that even before the Saturday storms we were off the turf.  I knew it was wise to avoid driving out there today :)  I ran second in the Monmouth opener after getting clear in the lane, only to be inhaled by my second choice.  Ran fourth in the second on the Shore and then ran fourth in the 2nd at Saratoga.  The third at Monmouth was my BEST of the Day in New Jersey.  Jingo was an older maiden making just the second start of his career.  He'd finished second in his debut behind a right-back winner.  Trainer Patrick McBurney was winning 50% with second time maidens; 40% with hot riding jockey Paco Lopez and the debut Beyer figure Jingo had earned was best on the page.  Scored as MUCH the best and I cashed for $30....whoooo hoooo!

Missed in the fourth at Monmouth and then the racing began at Arlington for me.  The third was a maiden special event on the inner turf going a two-turn mile.  And while I admitted in the analysis that a maiden event for older runners on the turf could produce a "go figure" kind of outcome, it seemed most likely that after the race jockey Florent Geroux and trainer Eddie Kenneally would be posing with the logical favorite Our Bay B Ruth.  She went right to the front and stole the race under a masterful ride, the first of three winning mounts of the day for Geroux.  I had tripled the bet so I cashed for more than $20 on the favorite.  I was disappointed in the loss by 3/2 favorite Kittansett in the Saratoga 6th.  A first time 2yo for Chad Brown, she'd brought $1.4 Million in the sales ring (so I guess I was NOT the most disappointed person in the outcome!).  But it was a great story as her momma was Bsharpsonnata who'd been one of the first "Wall of Fame" photos I'd hung on my den wall and her daddy was Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup champion American Pharoah.  Just never seemed to be ready to run today, and that would be more disappointing to me than the outcome were I the connections.  After the win by 'Baby Ruth I ran my losing skid to six before it was time for the feature at Monmouth, the Incredible Revenge Stakes going five furlongs on the turf.  The logical favorite figured to be Goldwood and she was looking to become the first three-time winner of the meet, all in turf sprints.  For me the key was jockey Jose Ferrer who has just dominated all 5 and 5 1/2 furlong races on both the turf and dirt.  Goldwood had a career resume of six-for-twelve in turf sprints and just looked too good.  It was a battle, but she edged clear late and won.  My triple bet on what I thought was a generous 7/5 price netted me more than $35 into my xpressbet account :)

At Del Mar in the opener Bob Baffert was unveiling the highly regarded first time 2yo Garth who'd been blazing away in the morning works.  Sent off at 1/5 she took the lead into the lane, but was caught inside the final sixteenth and was second.  But not to worry, as I was watching the TVG telecast I saw that in the 7th at Saratoga, another 2yo maiden special, Gozilla was getting pounded.  I paid attention to what the analysts were saying and looked at not only the pp's but the way all the betting was going and this Steve Asmussen colt looked like the real deal.  Just really impressive as he ran them off their feet in a wire-to-wire score!

Now the parade of stakes events was about to begin.  The first of the five added money events was the Bruce D. Memorial for three-year-olds going a one-turn mile on the all-weather synthetic track.  There were oh-so-many angles to why Dabo should win, and as I wrote I thought he'd be at least 7/5 or lower by post time.  Looking down his pp's he'd run into the talented stakes winner Tracksmith, Global Access, Somelikeithotbrown, and A Thread of Blue.  Three of the other four starts were wins and ALL came here at Arlington!  Well worth noting as well that Dabo is the ONLY 3yo in the field with a win at a one-turn mile, a favorite angle of mine.  Trainer Dale Romans had only started three horses here in Chicago to date....and WON WITH THEM ALL, uh oh.  And finally, looking at his workouts, he'd blistered a best-of-77 bullet work in a wicked :47.2.  And the last piece of the puzzle, top Arlington trainer Larry Rivelli had two entered in here to try Dabo, but top Arlington jockey Jose Valdivia - Rivelli's go-to rider - was sticking with Dabo.  He was well back mid-way on the turn then swooped by the run away as much, MUCH the best.

But best of all, somehow the crowd had let Dabo slip away at better than 2/1 on the board.  My triple investment returned nearly FIFTY dollars, how is that possible.  Oh I love Arlington :)  With the scratch of the pick in the opener at Gulfstream I was left with just two bets in Hallandale (again, very thankful that I didn't drive out there to watch two live races).  In the tenth - yes, that would have been a L-O-N-G wait for the first live bet - I thought Passionate Hachi was pretty obvious.  The conditions of this race were, "....for 3yo or 3yo and up which have never won two races....."  I love to find multiple winning sophomores in spots like this.  'Hachi had just beaten $12.5K "beaten" runners under these same conditions and he had the hot riding apprentice Cristian Torres in the irons.  My only concern was that low-level claimers aren't often the most consistent of performers, but he looked too good to pass up.  It was close, but he was the winner and I had my sixth win of the day, and more importantly fourth in the last five bets.

Ran third at Monmouth and then I was very surprised when Chad Brown's filly, Uni - who was working on a five-race winning streak - was off the board in Saratoga's featured Grade 1 Fourstardave while facing the boys.  Even more surprising was that the winner was another filly who just won a stakes at Saratoga, LAST WEEKEND.  Just Stormy set a course record in the win, pretty impressive even if I didn't have her.  The ninth at Arlington was next, and it was my BET of the Weekend.  Chad Brown's Sistercharlie had won the Grade 1 Beverly D last summer (named for the tracks founder's wife) and gone on to win the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Churchill Downs.  She had made her 2019 debut in the Grade 1 Diana on the Saturday when Keith and I were at Delaware Park on our track trip and it wasn't so much that she won, or by how much, but the visual appearance of the win.  She had been under wraps it appeared to me while blowing by a very good field, in a Grade 1, at Saratoga, off an eight month layoff.  If she was "just getting started" that day, how good would she be today?  Brown had three in the field and one of them, Thais, is a confirmed front runner.  While you could envision that one stealing it at a big price, it was much more likely she would set the table for Sistercharlie.  The fractions were just wicked for a mile and three sixteenths:  :22.2, :46.3, and 1:09 and change to the pace call.  Thais was EIGHT in front as they hit the turn, but was starting to tire as they hit the top of the stretch.  Jockey John Velazquez moved Sistercharlie into the clear and she blew by to win with authority.

Not only was she the bet of the day and weekend for me, but it gave Brown an unheard of fifth consecutive win in the Beverly D AND Sistercharlie became the first filly/mare E-V-E-R to win two Beverly D's.  Just amazing.

Missed in the twelfth at Monmouth at 3/5 when third but came right back for my third win of the day on the Jersey Shore in the thirteenth when It's A Lovely Day ran away from the field.  Minutes later it was post time for the twelfth at Gulfstream and my second, and final bet of the day at the local venue.  When I'd watched the pre-race day handicapping program I was taken by the fact that BOTH GP analyst Ron Nicoletti and track announcer Pete Aiello made Finalst their "SINGLE" in the Rainbow Pick Six.  Because not only was this a maiden race, but a maiden race for two-year-olds.  That's a lot of confidence in a second time starter.  But their rationale matched what I'd written.  He'd debuted in a good second against a colt that is highly regarded.  Also, that race had been run at today's extended seven furlong distance.  Noting Finalist was over EIGHT lengths clear of the rest of the field made me believe the race was a strong one.  And it was an even more impressive feat considering he'd broken from the rail, which often compromises young first-time starters.  I thought about it several times during the day and as post time approached I checked the multi-race payoffs and made the move.....I doubled my original double investment to make Finalst a "prime time," "Best of the Day" play at Gulfstream.  He had to duel all the way to the top of the lane and his pace rival would not go away even as Finalst edged in front.  Then here came another challenge on the outside.  They dueled through the lane and at the sixteenth pole Finalst fell a head back, but he found something extra and courageously accelerated back to the front in the shadow of the wire.  Oh yeah baby!

Cashed for over $40 on the even money favorite :)  I ran fifth in the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington when I went with a Euro shipper, and then it was time for the featured Grade 1 Arlington Million.  Back in late January on Pegasus World Cup Day I had picked Bricks and Mortar to win, and he did.  Since then he'd rattled off three straight graded events and was widely considered the best turf horse in the world, and now was getting a lot of talk as a strong candidate for "Horse of the Year."  I'd been so impressed with him in his last two how very easily he'd blown by the field.  I wasn't quite as certain of him winning as Sistercharlie but I was pretty confident.  As I watched the TVG telecast I was just a bit "taken" when in an interview trainer Chad Brown mentioned he'd already had a "long year" and that his other entrant, Robert Bruce - who'd WON the Million last summer - had never been training so well.  Hmmmm.  But TVG analyst Caton Bradar, who I've often thought a lot of as a handicapper, continued to make Bricks and Mortar her "single" in the All-Stakes Pick Five.  I briefly considered cutting back on the bet, but left it the same.  Just like his previous races, Bricks and Mortar sat patiently to the top of the lane, angled out, made a quick burst to the front and then just as easily was motored down as he crossed the wire.  What a remarkable horse!

Bricks and Mortar WINS the Gr 1 Pegasus Turf, Gr 2 Muniz, Gr 1 Turf Classic, and Gr 1 Manhattan

What was remarkable, besides the fact that now had trainer Chad Brown not only won the last five Beverly D's, but he'd won the last two Arlington Millions.  AND for this afternoon he'd swept ALL THREE Grade 1 events.  What a day for that guy.  For the day I'd only had three plays at Del Mar - the aforementioned opener with Garth, who disappointed and now in the sixth where it was a claiming event and I thought Square Peggy could wire the field at a price.  Stopped in mid-stretch.  The last bet was in the featured Grade 2 Best Pal but my pick, Brad Free's BEST of the day scratched.  Sigh.....  That left me with one more bet on the day, the finale at Arlington, the last of the stakes races - the Grade 3 Pucker Up for 3yo fillies on the turf.  I looked over the field and as I remarked,  I wouldn't blame anyone for shopping for a better price but it IS a graded turf event and there IS a Chad Brown runner.  Cafe Americano.  She'd won her first two starts then flattened out last time out in the Belmont Oaks.  I thought you could toss that race because either, (a) the distance was too far, (b) the jockey, who was new that day, didn't handle her right, and/or the winner (c) Concrete Rose was simply too good.  A lot of support for that as 'Rose had come back to win the Saratoga Oaks as TONS the best a week ago Friday as my "Best of the Weekend."  And today, 'Cafe was getting her rider back from her first two starts, Irad Ortiz - who'd won the Million on Bricks and Mortar.  She was near the back as the field hit the turn and then the visual acceleration was breath taking as Ortiz circled the field and blew by to win going away.

Just pause for a minute and consider what this win means......my ELEVENTH on the day from twenty-seven selections - a 40% win average for the day, and that after starting the day two-for-twelve (do the math, that's 9-for-15 to close the day - 60% wins); but also, the win by Cafe Americano gave me FOUR Stakes Wins from Five Stakes Races at Arlington!  Oh how I love Arlington Million Day!  And get this, Chad Brown won ALL FOUR graded stakes on the afternoon at Arlington.  What a day for THAT guy.

Sunday August 11
Well, who could expect to have a "Big Day" after going 4-for-5 on Friday and 11-for-27 on Saturday?  I started the day off with the kind of beginning that had me wondering if maybe, just maybe the amazing winning percentage would continue as I won the first and second race of the day.  My pick scratched in the third and I had passes in the 4th, 5th, 6th before running second in the seventh.  Passed, missed twice and then won with my "best" of the day" Richie's Sister who was everyone's top pick in a turf sprint.  Closed the day down with a third at a generous 5/1 price.

So for the week I was 10-for-22 at Monmouth, that's over 45% and I was 18-for-39 overall, an equally impressive 46%.  It's been a really, REALLY good summer at the races to date.

Million Weekend 2019 Highlights

Million Day Fashion

Whitney / Birthday Weekend

August 2 - 4

I truly could not have asked for a better weekend.  Just the birthday part of the weekend would have made the weekend an excellent weekend regardless of the racing results.  But the way the racing turned out it was just THE best of weekends.  The "festivities" kicked off on Tuesday when my Mom, sister, and niece all arrived from Ohio.  We decided to make Thursday, August 1st (my actual birthday) the annual visit to Jaxson's for an "ice cream lunch" because the portions are so huge.  Then on Friday our youngest son Brad made the drive from Orlando to So Fla with his wife Lauren and our grandson Oliver.  That's a LONG haul for even adults, much a little man that's just almost three.  But it was the best birthday present I received.  Here's how the weekend unfolded on the racing scene, followed by some birthday photos....

Friday August 2nd

I had six selections from Monmouth and I decided to play the Saratoga Oaks, the second of the Turf Tiara that NYRA had put together.  The last of the races, the featured Saratoga event was going off just as the kids arrived.  I missed in the opener at Monmouth but came back to score in the third when Potra Liza was a triple investment.  After passing the fourth I scored in both the fifth and sixth with Colorado Grandslam and Nay Lady Nay.  Missed in the final two Jersey Shore selections before the Saratoga Oaks.  On Breeders' Cup weekend, Chad Brown's Newspaperofrecord had been a scintilating winner of the BC Juvenile Filly Turf, beating Concrete Rose who it was said later had (a) come back too quickly and (b) was on the boggy inside part of the course.  When the two met again in the Grade 3 Edgewood on Ky Oaks Day it was Concrete Rose who upset the heavily favored 'Newspaper.  They met again in the Belmont Oaks and I gave 'Newspaper one more shot, but she was blown away by Concrete Rose again.  Ok, I get it, she's the "NOW" filly.  So today she was a prohibitive favorite to win the Saratoga Friday feature.  She didn't need any help but in looking at the race she appeared to also be the lone speed.  Seeing that I doubled my original $15 bet.  She strolled on the front end and walked with it handily to help me close the day out with a sharp 4-for-7 handicapping record.

Saturday August 3rd:  Whitney Saturday

It was an emotional day in Saratoga Springs because just recently the "Queen of Saratoga," Mary Lou Whitney had passed away in her 90s.  She'd still been very active at Saratoga and they left her seat empty with a program and some roses on the shelf.  For today I'd handicapped the entire Saratoga card and the Monmouth card.  Good thing, because for the entire day at Monmouth I had only four races selections.  I was fourth (behind my second choice) in the opener.  In the second Life on the Edge was easily best for me with a double investment; then was clear in deep stretch in the fourth before being run down late to be second.  Then the seventh came up and it was my BEST of the Day on the Jersey Shore.  Krakov was another example that you don't need to be playing a Grade 1 event to have your "best bet" as this was a mid-card maiden claimer for older sprinters going 5 1/2 furlongs.  But this lightly raced 5yo had debuted with a sharp second behind a horse named Powerfully Built who came right back to win two straight claimers and then gave my last Sunday finishing in a photo with my BET of the Day that day.  With expected second race improvement and with Paco Lopez up he figured tough.  He had to battle to the 16th pole, but edged clear late.

While I was watching the live TVG broadcast after the Krakov race I saw that at Gulfstream there was a prohibitive favorite.  The analysts began talking about the upcoming fifth from Hallandale and it was the first leg of the Florida Sire Stakes, the Dr. Fager.  The favorite, Chance It had run the second fastest Beyer figure of a 2yo in North America this year in his runaway maiden win and just looked really tough, even with some regression.  He made the winning move on the far turn and at the furlong marker began to gradually widen the margin of victory.

The race that WOULD have made the day was the Lure Stakes from Saratoga.  I had Sacred Life from the Chad Brown barn and he was FLYING late to just miss at 7/2 odds.  Would have cashed for $45 and had a huge day, sigh....  But the national feature was the Grade 1 Whitney and while the field appeared very evenly matched I thought Bob Baffert's McKenzie looked clearly best.  And that was without factoring in the horrible trip he'd had in the Grade 1 Met Mile last time.  As the field turned for home there were FIVE across the track with the chance to win.  But it was McKenzie, under a hand ride from Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith that strode out convincingly for the win.

Missed in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar when Vasilika had her four race winning streak snapped, and that led me to finish 4-for-12 on the day....and ok day.  But that night the highlight was the birthday cake celebration and my grandson helping blow out the candles!

Sunday August 4
We spent the morning with the family and Oliver who was having the time of his life going in and out of all the doors in the house.....kids, go figure!  But they had to leave shortly after lunch, sad.  I got online and watched the opener on replay from Monmouth.  I had Desperado who got hammered at the windows and won for fun.  The fourth was live shortly thereafter and I ran third at 3/1.  The feature at Woodbine today was the Shepperton Stakes featuring former Horse of the Year Pink Lloyd.  He rolled up on the turn and drew off for his career 20th win and 17th stakes victory.  That's impressive!

I missed in the fifth at Monmouth at even money when fourth.  Then in the sixth Noble Lion was a short priced favorite.  He led into the lane but could not put away his rival and it was the narrowest of photos, fortunately top rider Paco Lopez got his nose down in front for my third win of the day and second from Monmouth.  Then came "THE Race" of the day.  It was a claiming event going 5 1/2 furlongs and I liked Unruly Heir.  Check out my analysis.

I was surprised with about five minutes to post that apparently I was in a strong minority with the selection because there was a 3/5 favorite and 'Heir was 9/2.  Still, as I'd written at even half the DRF odds (which have been 4/1 and I was getting 4 1/2-to-1) it was stealing.  First, Jose Ferrer just seems to win ALL these short sprints, and then there's the matter of the troubled trip AND the record at the distance.  I was just so surprised not more people saw this.  They left the gate and after the opening quarter mile the odds changed to reflect the late money.  The favorite was now a prohibitive 1/5 choice and my odds had nearly doubled, to EIGHT to one.  Oh my!  On the turn I could tell....I've got the winner at a B-I-G price, oh my!  But as they came into the lane the favorite made a left turn and slammed into my horse then kept drifting out.  Ferrer is a strong rider however and he got Unruly Heir on a straight path and accelerated clear to the wire.  Check out the payout.....

That's right my friends!  Who can handicap, come on....WHO can handicap!  I came right back to win the eighth and was set to wait for the eleventh which was my BET of the Day.  But the tenth was the featured Colleen Stakes for 2yo fillies.  I saw there was a short-priced favorite and so I looked at the field because I knew that trainer Wesley Ward had entered three yesterday in the featured juvenile stakes and all three were cross-entered today.  And one of them had won yesterday.  Well two of the entrants for today were scratched and that left Paco Lopez on the Ward favorite, Foolish Humor.  I decided to go in for double the investment.  She dueled through hot fractions between horses into the stretch and then the second choice slammed into her almost unseating Lopez.  I immediately thought, "just hold on for second because she's coming down" and down she came.  My sixth win of the day!

And the finale was a slam dunk.  Paco was going for his SIXTH winner on the day and he was on nearly everyone's "single" in the Pick 5 and Pick 6 and my BEST.  EASILY.  What a day as I finished with six wins at Monmouth and 7-for-9 on the day.

For the weekend I was 15-for-28, over 50% and at Monmouth I was over 60% with 11-for-18 winners.  Add in the family here for the birthday and it all added up to a GREAT weekend.

Birthday Photos

Oliver is fascinated with Santa so we bought him Santa pajamas

Khloe being, well Khloe....a hooded sweatshirt in Florida?

The boys join in the hoodie look

So adorable - slept every night with Gma & Gpa

It doesn't get any better than this

Playing with Gma - note the Santa Mickey (and Alaska t-shirt)

The fascination with the doors

The Jaxson's celebration













Birthday 2019

King George Week

July 26 - 28

What a weekend....what a month....and what a first half to the summer!  I had so been inclined to close the books on the month of July last weekend, but I knew that the full three days of the racing weekend still fell within the month of July so I didn't want to skew the stats.  I was very econxcited to read last week that the champion filly, Enable (who'd been my BET of the Weekend at the Breeders' Cup) was running this weekend.  And at first glance I thought she'd be a mortal lock, but the more I investigated who was running I came to realize there was a very real legitimate threat to end her ten race winning streak.  But before we could get to the races Saturday we had Day 27 of the Monmouth Handicapping Project on Friday.

Friday July 26

On Monmouth's eleven race card I originally had seven selections.  One interesting sidelight was I always look forward to Wednesday or Thursday morning to begin handicapping for the weekend.  But with the entire Sunday card wiped out / cancelled management simply moved it intact, without re-drawing to today.  So no handicapping, just play my selections.  As the morning scratches were announced I noted I'd lost my top pick in the opener.  So no bets until Race 3.  Ironically the runner who'd been my second choice in the opener won at generous 7/2 odds.  Then my top pick in the second won as the prohibitive favorite.  So 2-for-2 heading into my first investment of the weekend.  Paco Lopez was taking over on I'm A Cool Man who was claimed out of a winning effort at this level last time.  Toss in the fact that he had paired Beyers and the likely speed of the race was a last out maiden winner and I thought I had a good shot at victory.  Sure enough, 'Cool Man scored by daylight as the 4/5 favorite.  In the fourth right out of the gate Creedability was wiped out by Royally Cool who walked with the race by nearly a pole.  Paco was on board by horse and he made a courageous rally to nearly get into the money, but was fourth under the wire.  But the incident had not gone unnoticed by the stewards and they took him down.  That elevated me to third, which did my bet little good, but it was the principle of the matter.  The fifth was the featured Spruce Fir Handicap.  It looked to me like the top two program choices would decide the outcome and I noted I wouldn't be surprised with a result either way.  I went with 4-Liz's Cable Girl because it seemed nearly certain she'd get to the front and be the one to run down turning for home on the often speed favoring Jersey Shore strip.  Sure enough, as the field approached the turn for home 'Liz was in front with the challenger beginning to make up ground.  Then my top pick drifted a good four or five paths wide into the lane opening a window of opportunity for the second choice.  But Jose Ferrer on my horse never panicked and hand rode her to a "bigger than it looks" half length victory.  And I'm two-for-three to start the day!

In the 6th, a maiden claiming turf sprint Team Effort finished strongly but couldn't catch my second choice who wired the field.  Passed both the seventh and eighth (neither winner was in my analysis), and in the ninth Dial Operator looked clearly best.  Left the gate at 4/5 under Paco but when he didn't get the front immediately he seemed to be discouraged and faded through the lane.  Passed on the tenth before the final play of the day in a two-turn mile for cheap maiden claiming runners.  There were for sure a ton of issues with War Veteran.: he was plunging from MSW to this cheap level; was stretching out from a 6f sprint; and had been away since May 27.  But the drop in class and long layoff are big win angles for trainer Jason Servis.  The opposition was weak, WEAK on top of that.  He tracked the leader to the far turn, took over and when I say "opened up," I don't know if I've EVER had a horse "open up" like this.  The official final margin of victory was TWENTY-ONE lengths.  Just WOW.  And so I closed out the first day a solid 3-for-6.

Saturday July 27:  King George VI Stakes Day
Truly the highlight of the day, for me, would come in mid-morning when my "BEST BET" was running at Royal Ascot.  Champion 5yo filly/mare Enable was putting her winning streak on the line against the highly regarded Crystal Ocean.  For me, that Enable had won the Arc for the second year in a row, off a single prep and after the connections said she wasn't at her best; and then won the BC Turf becoming the first horse EVER to win both those prestigious events (and beat the best boys in the world) said a lot for her.  Today, unlike her initial start to the season a month ago, was also at her best distance, a mile and a half.  She was a little farther back than I thought she'd be, but as the rounded the turn into the home straight she and Crystal Ocean hooked up with the former on the rail and Enable just outside of him.  There have been few races that can rival this EPIC stretch duel, but Enable is just too talented and in the final fifty yards began to edge clear.  It was truly something to watch live on the big screen.  AND it was even more exciting knowing I'd won with my best of the day before the bulk of the day's racing had begun :)

The afternoon's racing did not start off as I expected.  Noonsight was clear into the lane in the Monmouth opener as the 4/5 favorite, but was nailed in deep stretch, second.  I ran second at a good 3/1 price in the Saratoga opener as well.  Then in the third at Monmouth I had the even money favorite Radiantrithym.  In a virtual replay of the 4th race Friday where my horse was wiped out at the start, I was cut off and forced to check sharply shortly after leaving the gate.  I was not watching the live feeds on xpressbet, though I had them open - without sound - because I was watching the live telecast on TVG.  The Monmouth race finished as I split horses and was a close second on the wire behind a longshot whom the TVG hosts were calling a nice priced winner as they went to commercial break.  The third at Saratoga came up right afterwards and I had Frisky Magician in a turf sprint.  Ran strongly at a fair 5/2 price, but was second best behind a runaway front runner.  But as the threw it back to the studio the one host remarked, "Oh and by the way we had an inquiry and steward's disqualification at Monmouth in their third race."  Wait....what?  I did run second right?  Went back to check the video feed and there I was walking into the winner's circle.  OH HORRAY!  I've got my second winner and instead of losing a double investment, I'm cashing for more than $20 :)  The fifth at Monmouth was a one mile turf race and it was their featured Frisk Me Now Stakes.  Trainer Joe Sharp had only started ONE horse at the New Jersey oval and he'd won, until today when he shipped in Tracksmith.  And I liked that not only did he make the trip from Saratoga, but jockey Adam Beschizza came along for the ride.  In his 2yo season he'd run very well even in graded company.  He'd won his 3yo debut about a month ago in allowance company with a strong rally which set up nicely for today because there looked to be several speed types.  Finally, a long time ago I read a handicapping book by NY analyst Dave Liftin and he'd pointed out that any time a 3yo came back with a Beyer figure in his first or second start of his sophomore year that tops his 2yo top number, he's ready to run big.  Tracksmith had earned a big 86 in that allowance win.  Uh oh.  He was in last in the small five horse field mid-way on the turn then took off.  In a blink of an eye he was in front and edged clear to win the feature, with my triple investment on board.  THREE wins on the day.

The fourth at Saratoga was a MSW for two-year olds and I thought EITHER of the coupled entry owned by Gradview Equine would have been a short-priced favorite today.  Shoplifted was my preference as an $800K purchase with a strong bullet work for Steve Asmussen.  But you couldn't dismiss Soviet who went for Todd Pletcher & John Velazquez and he'd been a $425K purchase.  In the wagering you got two for the price of one.  Good for winning chances, bad for odds.  A speed duel led to a perfect set-up for Shoplifted who blew by in mid-stretch and drew off impressively.

Second at 1/5 in Monmouth's sixth - wow (Jason Servis-Paco Lopez), but then I went on a five-for-six tear.  Monmouth's 8th featured an angle I especially like at this time of the year.

The conditions for this "beaten" claiming event read, "....for 3yo or 3yo and up which have never won two races..."  Here I always look for the multiple winning 3yo.  Nancysaidso was the one and only filly in the field with multiple wins.  The only reason I didn't go in for an added investment was because after being regarded highly enough to run in the FSS Series last summer at 2, she ran in an AOC nw1x, then plummeted to this same $7.5K "beaten" level last time and was second at 3/5.  Big rider upgrade to Paco made her the choice.  Right to the front as the 1/2 chalk, controlled the race into the stretch then appeared to be collared before Paco opened her up to draw off to win.  Right back in Monmouth's ninth when Spring Up was the choice in a claiming event on the turf.  He'd been denied as the 8/5 favorite two weeks ago, but the 9yo had tons of back class.  His three last Beyers would require something near a career effort by his rivals.  Ninth of ten after the opening quarter mile he roared past the field on the turn and drew off to the easiest of wins, nearly half a dozen on the wire under wraps at even money.  After a miss with a Todd Pletcher colt at Saratoga it was near time for the opener at Del Mar.  As I'd mentioned, I'd been watching the TVG broadcast live and for the past thirty minutes the announcers, based in the Del Mar paddock had been talking about the "exciting" 2yo prospect in the opener, Wrecking Crew.  This juvenile son of new freshman sire Sky Kingdom had drawn an $875K bid at the sales ring and I'd been close to putting him on my selection sheet.  But just too many questions about these lightly raced runners.  Then I kept hearing former trainer Simon Bray rave about this guy.  I checked the early double probables and he was a heavy favorite and was taking a ton of money in the WIN pool.   Bray then showed his Early Pick 5 ticket on the screen.  The single in the sequence.....the debuting two-year-old Wrecking Crew.  Because I'd considered him initially, and now all this info he became a LIVE bet.  He broke behind the field but was smoothly glided into contention by top So Cal rider Flavian Prat.  Circled the field and drew off in a visually impressive performance.  NICE.

The eleventh at Monmouth was an entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  Curluck appealed to me in spite of how wide open the race seemed.  The 4yo filly had moved into Jason Servis' barn at GP during the Championship Meet and had faltered in a turf sprint.  She was second off the shelf today (35% for Servis) and got Paco Lopez (47% for Servis).  Too good to ignore.  Sat mid-pack to the turn, launched a 4-wide rally and drew off under a hand ride for my eighth win of the day.  I'm having a very good day!  The second at Del Mar was a MSW for older going a mile and a sixteenth and I went with Moody Jim.  The obvious favorite was Parsimony who had run second twice in stakes and had big numbers.  But he was a 13x - yes thirteen time - maiden.  Not for me.  Moody Jim had run a sharp 4th at Churchill Downs and now found himself in new surroundings with a chance to score.  Came rallying late and up in time at a very generous $9.40.  I wish I'd doubled the bet instead of going for the minimum play.  Still, cashed for nearly $25.

The Grade 1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga saw a horse who'd not won in a year set a track record in 1:07.94, beating my top choice soundly as the 1/2 favorite.  Remember this time.....it's important to a story later!  Missed at 3/5 in the co-feature at Del Mar when Bob Baffert's 3/5 favored Cruel Intentions faded despite dropping out of open company into a state-bred stakes.  Scored for the final time on the day when TVG hostess Cristina Blacker's trainer/husband Dan Blacker sent out Hackberry in a MSW turf route.  As I noted in the analysis, I'm a big Beyer fan.  But I realize those numbers are least reliable in two circumstances:  either maiden races or with lightly raced horses.  This situation had BOTH scenarios.  Still, his 82 and 86 Beyers would require about a fifteen length turn around to be beaten.  Rallied strongly and scored at even money for my TENTH win, from nineteen selections, on the day.  Despite missing in both the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga and Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar it was an excellent day of racing!

Sunday July 28
Towards the end of June I had bet and won with a Jorge Navarro lightly raced 3yo named Shancelot.  He'd won at the Gulfstream Championship Meet in a KEY race (the runner-up came back to run second in the Gr 1 Florida Derby and two others exited to win).  On June 22nd Shancelot was odds on and he coasted home without being asked in a sizzling 1:08 and change.  I was visually impressed.  Shortly thereafter Navarro was quoted that Shancelot was "...the best horse I've ever trained...." and considering his trained multiple graded stakes winner, that's something about a two race 3yo.  So prior to this weekend I read he was running today in Saratoga's featured Grade 2 Amsterdam, a 6 1/2 furlong sprint for sophomores.  I knew no matter what, he would be a LIVE bet - if Navarro says he's the "best I've ever trained," then I don't need any other information!  So this morning, after I printed out the selections for Monmouth I went to the entries to see when was Shancelot's Gr 2 Amsterdam, and his post/odds.  When I did I decided I browse through the entries and see if there was anything else that caught my eye.  Three other non-Monmouth runners caught my eye and I added them to my selection sheet.  In the Monmouth opener Solar went off a 2/1 and stalked the leader into the lane as a first-off-the-claim runner for trainer Kelly Breen with Paco Lopez on board (31% / 41%).  Cleared in mid-stretch but was caught by my second choice.  Passed the second and third races.  Prior to the fourth at Monmouth was the first of the four "out of town" plays.  I'd seen at Gulfstream that Sleeping Giant was 3/5 on the morning line in a claiming turf sprint.  He was the BEST BET for EVERYONE who posts selections online.  He'd beaten three of the six in this field last time out and two that were NOT in the race had come back to win.  Got lots of pace pressure inside which led to a four-wide trip, but when Edgard Zayas asked him he spurted clear and won by daylight.

In Monmouth's fourth Flan was a nice 4/1 price but was fourth behind odds-on winner Sunflower Girl who was my second choice.  The fifth was my BET of the Day at Monmouth.  This was a claiming event going six furlongs and it looked like the top two favorites, which had two of the top riders, would decide it.  Powerfully Built had Jose Ferrer and was a 3x winner in this "beaten" field because he was a 3yo.  He was the likely pace setter and while he could win I didn't like that his three wins had come in a MC $20 then two $7.5K claiming events - today the tag was $20K.  Meanwhile Camgo was going second off the shelf for Jorge Navarro.  He'd been a weakening fourth vs. ALLOWANCE rivals at Parx last time out.  Drops for a first time tag and the 2nd off the layoff angle is a 31% angle for Navarro.  Add in Paco Lopez and it's a done deal - prime time.  The race just as I expected into the lane when Paco sent Camgo up the rail to catch Powerfully Built.  But that one would not go away and they dueled into the final fifty yards.....PHOTO FINISH!

PHOTO FINISH

I was happy to get a "decent" 3/5 price and cash for over $30 on my second win of the day.  Passed on races six and seven then ran 2nd with Border Town in a MSW mile race on the turf.  He was the 8/5 favorite as a first time starter for Chad Brown.  But when the gates opened he stood motionless and spotted the field about eight to ten lengths.  The pace was quick and he accelerated around the turn and looked like he might go right on by to win.  But the winner had the jump on him and more energy for the final 16th and he was second.  Tab him for next time!  I was very surprised to lose BOTH the 9th and tenth when Best Choice went down at even money and Ellyb ran a fading fourth as the 3/5 choice in the featured Just Jenda Stakes.  Before the twelfth Del Mar was about to begin their program.  When I had looked through the entries I opened Del Mar's card for today and in the opener Immediate Impact was the short 7/5 favorite in a MSW for two-year-olds.  I looked for info and found two articles about how this daughter of champion Arrogate had drawn a huge price tag at the auction and had been working lights out for today for Bob Baffert.  Wow does this sound familiar to Saturday's opener!  Then Simon Bray came on TVG with his early Pick 5 and AGAIN his single was in the opener with Immediate Impact.  She sat three deep into the far turn and then effortlessly glided up to take command and ran away with plenty in the tank.  Even more impressive than Wrecking Crew yesterday and immediately the TVG hosts began speculating we'd see her next in the Gr 2 Sorrento and then possibly in the BC Juvenile Fillies this fall because she was just going to get better as the distances get longer.

The next play was at Monmouth.  Muggasmatic was the third runner on the card to go first off the claim for Kelly Breen and have Paco Lopez up.  The first two had lost, but not this guy.  Stalked the leaders in fourth to the far turn, swung into the clear and just BLEW by to win going away under wraps.  Wish I'd had more confidence, but had I been watching all day (we'd gone to the movies) I doubt I would have upped the bet with the first three Breen-Lopez runners losing.  My fourth win today.  The finale was next and I had Exceed The Goal who was 9/5 in the program.  By now I was watching the races live and the TVG guys at Monmouth both said he'd be "tough to beat" and looked "really formidable" today.  He was being hammered in the WIN pool and all the multi-race wagers so I upped the bet.  Pressed the pace to mid-turn, took over without being asked.  Opened up by daylight and then Paco - winning his FIFTH of the day - wrapped him up for the final furlong....still won by multiple lengths.  Now it was time for the Grade 2 Amsterdam and all the talk was about Shancelot.  The common theme seemed to be IF he was as good as advertised and his works seemed to say, he was the winner.  But with only two starts under his belt; facing graded stakes runners; at a new track, and Saratoga at that; it was difficult to take a short price....especially from a wide draw in post twelve.  NONE of that bothered me, I tripled the bet.  Broke sharply and immediately cleared the field as they began their six and a half furlong journey.  The opening quarter was an unbelievable :21.3 - certainly he'll slow it down to save something for the stretch I thought.....as they passed the half mile pole at the top of the turn announcer Larry Colmus called out it was a wicked :43.4, oh my.  But here's the thing - NO ONE was making up ground and he'd yet to be asked.

He clicked off the six furlong time in 1:07.63 - recognize that number?  Yesterday when the six furlong track record was broken with the fastest time in over 150 years it was 1:07.94.  As Shancelot cruised under the finish line the final time was posted in 1:14.01, a NEW TRACK record!  So he technically broke TWO track records in one race.  But the best news is that the announcers were singing his praises saying he had every chance to run the table of the 3yo sprint stakes this summer and would probably be 1/9 at post time....but today I'd gotten 6/5, and you'll never see that again on this guy!

Missed in the final of the four non-Monmouth races when Paradise Woods was fourth as the 8/5 second choice in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar.  For the day I was 6-for-12 and that made my weekend record:

It was a great weekend of racing for sure!

King George Weekend Racing Highlights