August 9 - 11: Arlington Million Weekend
I truly couldn't have asked for a more successful Arlington Million weekend from my handicapping selections. I always look forward to Million weekend as it holds a special spot in my memories AND I seem to always have very good success with my selections.
It was in the spring of 2011 as I approached my first year of retirement that I made plans to visit Arlington for the second time. I'd been there in 2007 on a whirlwind trip when Kim had a workshop to attend, so I flew up early in the morning, picked a car and drove to Arlington. I'd emailed the staff and it was arranged for me to meet my favorite analyst and announcer, Lauren Massarella and John G. Dooley. After the final race I drove back to the airport, dropped off the car and flew home, getting back around midnight! Then came the 2011 Millions Day visit. My original plan had been to be at Saratoga on the first day of school on the first official day of my retirement. And that expanded into a visit to Arlington on Saturday; flew to Saratoga on Sunday; spent the day there and met Hall of Fame announcer Tom Durkin (above left), and flew home on Tuesday. And the most recent visit came in 2014 when I met my buddy Keith at Arlington for a Million weekend track adventure. I had a much better handicapping day on Friday than Saturday, but loved the experience. I am tentatively planning to be there next summer!
Here's how the 2019 Millions Weekend unfolded......
Friday August 9
The kind of day I was about to have to kick off Million Weekend was foreshadowed when I was distracted and missed the first race of the day, but my top choice ran second :) I then won the second (which was my "Best" of the day), and immediately thereafter the third. Passed on the fourth, but my top choice was the winner, and then won the fifth. A perfect three-for-three day was "interrupted" when my buddy Keith called and while I can't prove it, the pick I had in the 7th didn't even hit the board while I was talking with him. Hung up and in the eighth I won again. Coincidence that the ONLY loss for the day came when Keith was "with me?" Hmmmm, I think not. Still, I was pretty happy to kick off the big weekend with a 4-for-5 day at Monmouth!
Saturday August 10: Arlington Million Day
I debated about how to play the day and even considered going to Gulfstream to play live. But after looking at the entries for Gulfstream I could tell I'd have limited bets and probably would lose at least one or two because of the anticipated afternoon rains. So in the end I handicapped both Monmouth and Arlington "seriously," and then gave a look at Saratoga, Gulfstream, and Del Mar trying to only pick runners I had a LOT of confidence in. The result was a selections sheet with twenty-five selections that started at 12:45 and didn't end until 8:30 that night. The first play of the day came in the Gulfstream opener, scheduled for the turf. Sure enough, the rains from Friday had soaked the course enough that even before the Saturday storms we were off the turf. I knew it was wise to avoid driving out there today :) I ran second in the Monmouth opener after getting clear in the lane, only to be inhaled by my second choice. Ran fourth in the second on the Shore and then ran fourth in the 2nd at Saratoga. The third at Monmouth was my BEST of the Day in New Jersey. Jingo was an older maiden making just the second start of his career. He'd finished second in his debut behind a right-back winner. Trainer Patrick McBurney was winning 50% with second time maidens; 40% with hot riding jockey Paco Lopez and the debut Beyer figure Jingo had earned was best on the page. Scored as MUCH the best and I cashed for $30....whoooo hoooo!
Missed in the fourth at Monmouth and then the racing began at Arlington for me. The third was a maiden special event on the inner turf going a two-turn mile. And while I admitted in the analysis that a maiden event for older runners on the turf could produce a "go figure" kind of outcome, it seemed most likely that after the race jockey Florent Geroux and trainer Eddie Kenneally would be posing with the logical favorite Our Bay B Ruth. She went right to the front and stole the race under a masterful ride, the first of three winning mounts of the day for Geroux. I had tripled the bet so I cashed for more than $20 on the favorite. I was disappointed in the loss by 3/2 favorite Kittansett in the Saratoga 6th. A first time 2yo for Chad Brown, she'd brought $1.4 Million in the sales ring (so I guess I was NOT the most disappointed person in the outcome!). But it was a great story as her momma was Bsharpsonnata who'd been one of the first "Wall of Fame" photos I'd hung on my den wall and her daddy was Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup champion American Pharoah. Just never seemed to be ready to run today, and that would be more disappointing to me than the outcome were I the connections. After the win by 'Baby Ruth I ran my losing skid to six before it was time for the feature at Monmouth, the Incredible Revenge Stakes going five furlongs on the turf. The logical favorite figured to be Goldwood and she was looking to become the first three-time winner of the meet, all in turf sprints. For me the key was jockey Jose Ferrer who has just dominated all 5 and 5 1/2 furlong races on both the turf and dirt. Goldwood had a career resume of six-for-twelve in turf sprints and just looked too good. It was a battle, but she edged clear late and won. My triple bet on what I thought was a generous 7/5 price netted me more than $35 into my xpressbet account :)
At Del Mar in the opener Bob Baffert was unveiling the highly regarded first time 2yo Garth who'd been blazing away in the morning works. Sent off at 1/5 she took the lead into the lane, but was caught inside the final sixteenth and was second. But not to worry, as I was watching the TVG telecast I saw that in the 7th at Saratoga, another 2yo maiden special, Gozilla was getting pounded. I paid attention to what the analysts were saying and looked at not only the pp's but the way all the betting was going and this Steve Asmussen colt looked like the real deal. Just really impressive as he ran them off their feet in a wire-to-wire score!
Now the parade of stakes events was about to begin. The first of the five added money events was the Bruce D. Memorial for three-year-olds going a one-turn mile on the all-weather synthetic track. There were oh-so-many angles to why Dabo should win, and as I wrote I thought he'd be at least 7/5 or lower by post time. Looking down his pp's he'd run into the talented stakes winner Tracksmith, Global Access, Somelikeithotbrown, and A Thread of Blue. Three of the other four starts were wins and ALL came here at Arlington! Well worth noting as well that Dabo is the ONLY 3yo in the field with a win at a one-turn mile, a favorite angle of mine. Trainer Dale Romans had only started three horses here in Chicago to date....and WON WITH THEM ALL, uh oh. And finally, looking at his workouts, he'd blistered a best-of-77 bullet work in a wicked :47.2. And the last piece of the puzzle, top Arlington trainer Larry Rivelli had two entered in here to try Dabo, but top Arlington jockey Jose Valdivia - Rivelli's go-to rider - was sticking with Dabo. He was well back mid-way on the turn then swooped by the run away as much, MUCH the best.
But best of all, somehow the crowd had let Dabo slip away at better than 2/1 on the board. My triple investment returned nearly FIFTY dollars, how is that possible. Oh I love Arlington :) With the scratch of the pick in the opener at Gulfstream I was left with just two bets in Hallandale (again, very thankful that I didn't drive out there to watch two live races). In the tenth - yes, that would have been a L-O-N-G wait for the first live bet - I thought Passionate Hachi was pretty obvious. The conditions of this race were, "....for 3yo or 3yo and up which have never won two races....." I love to find multiple winning sophomores in spots like this. 'Hachi had just beaten $12.5K "beaten" runners under these same conditions and he had the hot riding apprentice Cristian Torres in the irons. My only concern was that low-level claimers aren't often the most consistent of performers, but he looked too good to pass up. It was close, but he was the winner and I had my sixth win of the day, and more importantly fourth in the last five bets.
Ran third at Monmouth and then I was very surprised when Chad Brown's filly, Uni - who was working on a five-race winning streak - was off the board in Saratoga's featured Grade 1 Fourstardave while facing the boys. Even more surprising was that the winner was another filly who just won a stakes at Saratoga, LAST WEEKEND. Just Stormy set a course record in the win, pretty impressive even if I didn't have her. The ninth at Arlington was next, and it was my BET of the Weekend. Chad Brown's Sistercharlie had won the Grade 1 Beverly D last summer (named for the tracks founder's wife) and gone on to win the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Churchill Downs. She had made her 2019 debut in the Grade 1 Diana on the Saturday when Keith and I were at Delaware Park on our track trip and it wasn't so much that she won, or by how much, but the visual appearance of the win. She had been under wraps it appeared to me while blowing by a very good field, in a Grade 1, at Saratoga, off an eight month layoff. If she was "just getting started" that day, how good would she be today? Brown had three in the field and one of them, Thais, is a confirmed front runner. While you could envision that one stealing it at a big price, it was much more likely she would set the table for Sistercharlie. The fractions were just wicked for a mile and three sixteenths: :22.2, :46.3, and 1:09 and change to the pace call. Thais was EIGHT in front as they hit the turn, but was starting to tire as they hit the top of the stretch. Jockey John Velazquez moved Sistercharlie into the clear and she blew by to win with authority.
Not only was she the bet of the day and weekend for me, but it gave Brown an unheard of fifth consecutive win in the Beverly D AND Sistercharlie became the first filly/mare E-V-E-R to win two Beverly D's. Just amazing.
Missed in the twelfth at Monmouth at 3/5 when third but came right back for my third win of the day on the Jersey Shore in the thirteenth when It's A Lovely Day ran away from the field. Minutes later it was post time for the twelfth at Gulfstream and my second, and final bet of the day at the local venue. When I'd watched the pre-race day handicapping program I was taken by the fact that BOTH GP analyst Ron Nicoletti and track announcer Pete Aiello made Finalst their "SINGLE" in the Rainbow Pick Six. Because not only was this a maiden race, but a maiden race for two-year-olds. That's a lot of confidence in a second time starter. But their rationale matched what I'd written. He'd debuted in a good second against a colt that is highly regarded. Also, that race had been run at today's extended seven furlong distance. Noting Finalist was over EIGHT lengths clear of the rest of the field made me believe the race was a strong one. And it was an even more impressive feat considering he'd broken from the rail, which often compromises young first-time starters. I thought about it several times during the day and as post time approached I checked the multi-race payoffs and made the move.....I doubled my original double investment to make Finalst a "prime time," "Best of the Day" play at Gulfstream. He had to duel all the way to the top of the lane and his pace rival would not go away even as Finalst edged in front. Then here came another challenge on the outside. They dueled through the lane and at the sixteenth pole Finalst fell a head back, but he found something extra and courageously accelerated back to the front in the shadow of the wire. Oh yeah baby!
Cashed for over $40 on the even money favorite :) I ran fifth in the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington when I went with a Euro shipper, and then it was time for the featured Grade 1 Arlington Million. Back in late January on Pegasus World Cup Day I had picked Bricks and Mortar to win, and he did. Since then he'd rattled off three straight graded events and was widely considered the best turf horse in the world, and now was getting a lot of talk as a strong candidate for "Horse of the Year." I'd been so impressed with him in his last two how very easily he'd blown by the field. I wasn't quite as certain of him winning as Sistercharlie but I was pretty confident. As I watched the TVG telecast I was just a bit "taken" when in an interview trainer Chad Brown mentioned he'd already had a "long year" and that his other entrant, Robert Bruce - who'd WON the Million last summer - had never been training so well. Hmmmm. But TVG analyst Caton Bradar, who I've often thought a lot of as a handicapper, continued to make Bricks and Mortar her "single" in the All-Stakes Pick Five. I briefly considered cutting back on the bet, but left it the same. Just like his previous races, Bricks and Mortar sat patiently to the top of the lane, angled out, made a quick burst to the front and then just as easily was motored down as he crossed the wire. What a remarkable horse!
What was remarkable, besides the fact that now had trainer Chad Brown not only won the last five Beverly D's, but he'd won the last two Arlington Millions. AND for this afternoon he'd swept ALL THREE Grade 1 events. What a day for that guy. For the day I'd only had three plays at Del Mar - the aforementioned opener with Garth, who disappointed and now in the sixth where it was a claiming event and I thought Square Peggy could wire the field at a price. Stopped in mid-stretch. The last bet was in the featured Grade 2 Best Pal but my pick, Brad Free's BEST of the day scratched. Sigh..... That left me with one more bet on the day, the finale at Arlington, the last of the stakes races - the Grade 3 Pucker Up for 3yo fillies on the turf. I looked over the field and as I remarked, I wouldn't blame anyone for shopping for a better price but it IS a graded turf event and there IS a Chad Brown runner. Cafe Americano. She'd won her first two starts then flattened out last time out in the Belmont Oaks. I thought you could toss that race because either, (a) the distance was too far, (b) the jockey, who was new that day, didn't handle her right, and/or the winner (c) Concrete Rose was simply too good. A lot of support for that as 'Rose had come back to win the Saratoga Oaks as TONS the best a week ago Friday as my "Best of the Weekend." And today, 'Cafe was getting her rider back from her first two starts, Irad Ortiz - who'd won the Million on Bricks and Mortar. She was near the back as the field hit the turn and then the visual acceleration was breath taking as Ortiz circled the field and blew by to win going away.
Just pause for a minute and consider what this win means......my ELEVENTH on the day from twenty-seven selections - a 40% win average for the day, and that after starting the day two-for-twelve (do the math, that's 9-for-15 to close the day - 60% wins); but also, the win by Cafe Americano gave me FOUR Stakes Wins from Five Stakes Races at Arlington! Oh how I love Arlington Million Day! And get this, Chad Brown won ALL FOUR graded stakes on the afternoon at Arlington. What a day for THAT guy.
Sunday August 11
Well, who could expect to have a "Big Day" after going 4-for-5 on Friday and 11-for-27 on Saturday? I started the day off with the kind of beginning that had me wondering if maybe, just maybe the amazing winning percentage would continue as I won the first and second race of the day. My pick scratched in the third and I had passes in the 4th, 5th, 6th before running second in the seventh. Passed, missed twice and then won with my "best" of the day" Richie's Sister who was everyone's top pick in a turf sprint. Closed the day down with a third at a generous 5/1 price.
So for the week I was 10-for-22 at Monmouth, that's over 45% and I was 18-for-39 overall, an equally impressive 46%. It's been a really, REALLY good summer at the races to date.
Friday August 9
The kind of day I was about to have to kick off Million Weekend was foreshadowed when I was distracted and missed the first race of the day, but my top choice ran second :) I then won the second (which was my "Best" of the day), and immediately thereafter the third. Passed on the fourth, but my top choice was the winner, and then won the fifth. A perfect three-for-three day was "interrupted" when my buddy Keith called and while I can't prove it, the pick I had in the 7th didn't even hit the board while I was talking with him. Hung up and in the eighth I won again. Coincidence that the ONLY loss for the day came when Keith was "with me?" Hmmmm, I think not. Still, I was pretty happy to kick off the big weekend with a 4-for-5 day at Monmouth!
Saturday August 10: Arlington Million Day
I debated about how to play the day and even considered going to Gulfstream to play live. But after looking at the entries for Gulfstream I could tell I'd have limited bets and probably would lose at least one or two because of the anticipated afternoon rains. So in the end I handicapped both Monmouth and Arlington "seriously," and then gave a look at Saratoga, Gulfstream, and Del Mar trying to only pick runners I had a LOT of confidence in. The result was a selections sheet with twenty-five selections that started at 12:45 and didn't end until 8:30 that night. The first play of the day came in the Gulfstream opener, scheduled for the turf. Sure enough, the rains from Friday had soaked the course enough that even before the Saturday storms we were off the turf. I knew it was wise to avoid driving out there today :) I ran second in the Monmouth opener after getting clear in the lane, only to be inhaled by my second choice. Ran fourth in the second on the Shore and then ran fourth in the 2nd at Saratoga. The third at Monmouth was my BEST of the Day in New Jersey. Jingo was an older maiden making just the second start of his career. He'd finished second in his debut behind a right-back winner. Trainer Patrick McBurney was winning 50% with second time maidens; 40% with hot riding jockey Paco Lopez and the debut Beyer figure Jingo had earned was best on the page. Scored as MUCH the best and I cashed for $30....whoooo hoooo!
At Del Mar in the opener Bob Baffert was unveiling the highly regarded first time 2yo Garth who'd been blazing away in the morning works. Sent off at 1/5 she took the lead into the lane, but was caught inside the final sixteenth and was second. But not to worry, as I was watching the TVG telecast I saw that in the 7th at Saratoga, another 2yo maiden special, Gozilla was getting pounded. I paid attention to what the analysts were saying and looked at not only the pp's but the way all the betting was going and this Steve Asmussen colt looked like the real deal. Just really impressive as he ran them off their feet in a wire-to-wire score!
Now the parade of stakes events was about to begin. The first of the five added money events was the Bruce D. Memorial for three-year-olds going a one-turn mile on the all-weather synthetic track. There were oh-so-many angles to why Dabo should win, and as I wrote I thought he'd be at least 7/5 or lower by post time. Looking down his pp's he'd run into the talented stakes winner Tracksmith, Global Access, Somelikeithotbrown, and A Thread of Blue. Three of the other four starts were wins and ALL came here at Arlington! Well worth noting as well that Dabo is the ONLY 3yo in the field with a win at a one-turn mile, a favorite angle of mine. Trainer Dale Romans had only started three horses here in Chicago to date....and WON WITH THEM ALL, uh oh. And finally, looking at his workouts, he'd blistered a best-of-77 bullet work in a wicked :47.2. And the last piece of the puzzle, top Arlington trainer Larry Rivelli had two entered in here to try Dabo, but top Arlington jockey Jose Valdivia - Rivelli's go-to rider - was sticking with Dabo. He was well back mid-way on the turn then swooped by the run away as much, MUCH the best.
But best of all, somehow the crowd had let Dabo slip away at better than 2/1 on the board. My triple investment returned nearly FIFTY dollars, how is that possible. Oh I love Arlington :) With the scratch of the pick in the opener at Gulfstream I was left with just two bets in Hallandale (again, very thankful that I didn't drive out there to watch two live races). In the tenth - yes, that would have been a L-O-N-G wait for the first live bet - I thought Passionate Hachi was pretty obvious. The conditions of this race were, "....for 3yo or 3yo and up which have never won two races....." I love to find multiple winning sophomores in spots like this. 'Hachi had just beaten $12.5K "beaten" runners under these same conditions and he had the hot riding apprentice Cristian Torres in the irons. My only concern was that low-level claimers aren't often the most consistent of performers, but he looked too good to pass up. It was close, but he was the winner and I had my sixth win of the day, and more importantly fourth in the last five bets.
Ran third at Monmouth and then I was very surprised when Chad Brown's filly, Uni - who was working on a five-race winning streak - was off the board in Saratoga's featured Grade 1 Fourstardave while facing the boys. Even more surprising was that the winner was another filly who just won a stakes at Saratoga, LAST WEEKEND. Just Stormy set a course record in the win, pretty impressive even if I didn't have her. The ninth at Arlington was next, and it was my BET of the Weekend. Chad Brown's Sistercharlie had won the Grade 1 Beverly D last summer (named for the tracks founder's wife) and gone on to win the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Churchill Downs. She had made her 2019 debut in the Grade 1 Diana on the Saturday when Keith and I were at Delaware Park on our track trip and it wasn't so much that she won, or by how much, but the visual appearance of the win. She had been under wraps it appeared to me while blowing by a very good field, in a Grade 1, at Saratoga, off an eight month layoff. If she was "just getting started" that day, how good would she be today? Brown had three in the field and one of them, Thais, is a confirmed front runner. While you could envision that one stealing it at a big price, it was much more likely she would set the table for Sistercharlie. The fractions were just wicked for a mile and three sixteenths: :22.2, :46.3, and 1:09 and change to the pace call. Thais was EIGHT in front as they hit the turn, but was starting to tire as they hit the top of the stretch. Jockey John Velazquez moved Sistercharlie into the clear and she blew by to win with authority.
Not only was she the bet of the day and weekend for me, but it gave Brown an unheard of fifth consecutive win in the Beverly D AND Sistercharlie became the first filly/mare E-V-E-R to win two Beverly D's. Just amazing.
Missed in the twelfth at Monmouth at 3/5 when third but came right back for my third win of the day on the Jersey Shore in the thirteenth when It's A Lovely Day ran away from the field. Minutes later it was post time for the twelfth at Gulfstream and my second, and final bet of the day at the local venue. When I'd watched the pre-race day handicapping program I was taken by the fact that BOTH GP analyst Ron Nicoletti and track announcer Pete Aiello made Finalst their "SINGLE" in the Rainbow Pick Six. Because not only was this a maiden race, but a maiden race for two-year-olds. That's a lot of confidence in a second time starter. But their rationale matched what I'd written. He'd debuted in a good second against a colt that is highly regarded. Also, that race had been run at today's extended seven furlong distance. Noting Finalist was over EIGHT lengths clear of the rest of the field made me believe the race was a strong one. And it was an even more impressive feat considering he'd broken from the rail, which often compromises young first-time starters. I thought about it several times during the day and as post time approached I checked the multi-race payoffs and made the move.....I doubled my original double investment to make Finalst a "prime time," "Best of the Day" play at Gulfstream. He had to duel all the way to the top of the lane and his pace rival would not go away even as Finalst edged in front. Then here came another challenge on the outside. They dueled through the lane and at the sixteenth pole Finalst fell a head back, but he found something extra and courageously accelerated back to the front in the shadow of the wire. Oh yeah baby!
Cashed for over $40 on the even money favorite :) I ran fifth in the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington when I went with a Euro shipper, and then it was time for the featured Grade 1 Arlington Million. Back in late January on Pegasus World Cup Day I had picked Bricks and Mortar to win, and he did. Since then he'd rattled off three straight graded events and was widely considered the best turf horse in the world, and now was getting a lot of talk as a strong candidate for "Horse of the Year." I'd been so impressed with him in his last two how very easily he'd blown by the field. I wasn't quite as certain of him winning as Sistercharlie but I was pretty confident. As I watched the TVG telecast I was just a bit "taken" when in an interview trainer Chad Brown mentioned he'd already had a "long year" and that his other entrant, Robert Bruce - who'd WON the Million last summer - had never been training so well. Hmmmm. But TVG analyst Caton Bradar, who I've often thought a lot of as a handicapper, continued to make Bricks and Mortar her "single" in the All-Stakes Pick Five. I briefly considered cutting back on the bet, but left it the same. Just like his previous races, Bricks and Mortar sat patiently to the top of the lane, angled out, made a quick burst to the front and then just as easily was motored down as he crossed the wire. What a remarkable horse!
Bricks and Mortar WINS the Gr 1 Pegasus Turf, Gr 2 Muniz, Gr 1 Turf Classic, and Gr 1 Manhattan
Just pause for a minute and consider what this win means......my ELEVENTH on the day from twenty-seven selections - a 40% win average for the day, and that after starting the day two-for-twelve (do the math, that's 9-for-15 to close the day - 60% wins); but also, the win by Cafe Americano gave me FOUR Stakes Wins from Five Stakes Races at Arlington! Oh how I love Arlington Million Day! And get this, Chad Brown won ALL FOUR graded stakes on the afternoon at Arlington. What a day for THAT guy.
Sunday August 11
Well, who could expect to have a "Big Day" after going 4-for-5 on Friday and 11-for-27 on Saturday? I started the day off with the kind of beginning that had me wondering if maybe, just maybe the amazing winning percentage would continue as I won the first and second race of the day. My pick scratched in the third and I had passes in the 4th, 5th, 6th before running second in the seventh. Passed, missed twice and then won with my "best" of the day" Richie's Sister who was everyone's top pick in a turf sprint. Closed the day down with a third at a generous 5/1 price.
So for the week I was 10-for-22 at Monmouth, that's over 45% and I was 18-for-39 overall, an equally impressive 46%. It's been a really, REALLY good summer at the races to date.
Million Weekend 2019 Highlights
Million Day Fashion
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