Haskell Week

Thursday July 18 - Sunday July 20

It was a really, REALLY interesting weekend of racing - from the first winner of the week through the last.  Here's how it all unfolded......

Thursday July 18
Keith and I had arrived back in Fort Lauderdale on Sunday night at midnight.  I worked Monday and Tuesday on the web page and journal for our Track Trip and my daughter Julie arrived Wednesday for a short visit before heading out for a trip to Portugal.  As we were all together in the living room and Keith turned on the TVG horse racing network.  As we were chatting I thought I heard the announcers talk about the talented runner Hofburg.  I'd seen him break his maiden for Bill Mott last winter at Gulfstream and then in an unusual move, especially for him he entered him right back in the Grade 1 Florida Derby where he ran 2nd and in the Kentucky Derby where he ran 7th.  I had him last summer at Saratoga where he'd won the Curlin Stakes.  I said to Keith, did they say Hofburg is running this week?  He didn't catch it so I looked it up in the future entries.  Sure enough, entered in a non-conditioned allowance event going nine furlongs on Thursday.  I invested for a double bet.  He sat in fourth to the far turn behind Flowers For Lisa - who has a history with me....the short version, missed his maiden win when he'd lost for me in like his sixth try and he'd beaten me on the front end another time.  I knew if Hofburg was right he'd run him down especially at this extended nine furlong trip.  Eased into the clear on the turn, moved to challenge a furlong out and eased by without being asked for a full-out drive.  Had my first win of the day.

Later that afternoon I saw that Saratoga was announcing they would NOT run on Saturday, Haskell Day because they anticipated the weather and heat index to be too hot.  That made me wonder about the Saturday card at Monmouth.  Certainly they wouldn't cancel the card on their biggest day of the year.  I then saw a couple video interviews with Monmouth officials and they assured the camera that they had done all the proper research and had multiple "protocols" in place to deal with possible heat issues.

Friday July 19
I had five selections on the day, where the weather was as hot as it had been throughout the week and was about the temperature/heat index that was anticipated for both Saturday and Sunday on the Jersey Shore.  So as I watched the races, and won two of them, I was confident that the races would be run as scheduled tomorrow, Haskell Day.  I saw online that Sunday at Saratoga they were running the Grade 2 Shuvee Handicap, and THAT race had not been listed for Saturday, but they'd already announced ALL of Saturday's races would be run Sunday.  Since I'd already handicapped the Saturday Saratoga card I went to the entries to see what the deal was.  Sure enough they were there, but NYRA had added a hurdles race as the opener, then the Saturday card was intact - but each race was a race later in the card - and they had added the Shuvee as the finale.  As I handicapped the Sunday card for Monmouth I added in my Saratoga selections and decided to pass on the Shuvee since I didn't see the sense in re-purchasing the Sunday card since the only race I didn't already have was that one.

Saturday July 20:  Haskell Invitational Day
My plan had originally been to drive out to Gulfstream today, especially since Kim was in Pennsylvania and both Keith and Julie had left.  But after looking over the card locally I didn't see anything of interest and then Saratoga was cancelled.  So I didn't see the purpose of driving out there to watch on TV screens without sound when I could stay here at the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" - the house - and watch on a big screen TV with sound.  To get the whole picture of what ensued next you need to know that Kim and I had booked a Holland America Pacific Coast Cruise for September 30 through October 6 and recently her Mom had indicated an interest in joining us.  So as I was awaiting the opener at Monmouth Park I called my travel agent Nancy Nelson.  I muted the sound and was watching the live video feed on TVG as we chatted.  It got to be close to post time, but I was surprised that the horses were not on the track and I kept seeing interviews taking place at Monmouth.  Nancy and I finished our conversation and I rewound the video to discover that NOW Monmouth was concerned about the heat index and had announced they would run the first two races and then make a decision.  My immediate thought was that the crowd, the HUGE crowd on this their signature day would be there on track and what....they were going to send them home and tell them to come back tomorrow or on another day?  The horses went on the track and my pick ran second as the 3/5 choice.  I didn't have a pick in the second and then the announcement came.....

I have to admit I was really surprised at this decision.  And then I watched the TV hosts interview a couple of horsemen, including top North American trainer Todd Pletcher who remarked that in his opinion the weather wasn't any hotter than many days that they'd run during past summers.  This all goes back to being "politically correct" since the number of horses dying out west at Santa Anita so now everyone is all overlly concerned that something happen on their big day of racing.  The next thought I had was how MY day was now going to be a SLOW one without a full day of racing as I'd originally thought; that I was SOOO glad I had not driven to Gulfstream; and then I thought about how I was originally supposed to be at Monmouth today with Jim - man what an experience that would have been; AND Keith and I were so fortunate to have made our trip LAST weekend and not this weekend.  What if we'd planned to either go to the Haskell or Saratoga?  So funny how things work out.  Well, when I'd found out that Saratoga was not running I added picks from Del Mar for today so I still could have multiple selections to play.  I revised my selection sheet to reflect the new post times for Monmouth and awaited the second from Del Mar.  The second at Del Mar was an allowance race for sprinters going 6 1/2 furlongs, which was being used as a bridge to next month's Grade 2 Pat O'Brien.  Bob Baffert entered American Anthem who is already a three-time graded stakes winning sprinter.  After an uncharacteristically poor effort in July 2018 in the Gr 1 Bing Crosby here at Del Mar he'd not resurfaced until Derby Day at Churchill Downs and he was a just miss second as the 6/5 favorite in an allowance.  Then he was 4th as the favorite in the Grade 2 Triple Bend at the end of May at Santa Anita.  Neither of those Beyers reflected his best races so I figured if he ran to his best today - and his sharp works seemed to indicate he was sitting on a big effort - he'd beat these.  It was, as the TVG hosts remarked, a stakes quality field without a stakes purse or name.  Jockey Flavian Prat sat in fourth to the turn then followed the second choice into the lane.  That one seemed to be getting away with a furlong to go and then American Anthem found another gear and blew by to give me my first winner on the day.

Finally the action got underway at Monmouth where the plan was to run the five stakes with less than thirty minutes between races.  Divisidero has always been a favorite of mine but since winning three straight graded events (at big prices) on Derby Day at Churchill Downs he'd consistently run big, without winning (often at big prices).  Today he looked like the legitimate favorite in the Grade 3 Oceanport - or would he come up just short again?  I seriously considered cancelling the bet because what had been a fairly full field that would have a lively pace was now a reduced field of four due to late scratches.  I later learned that the two big defections came because the horses had received their Lasix, anti-bleeding medication, as per usual in the morning but with the postponing of the post time to later and now the connections were concerned their horses would bleed.  This could hamper his chances, but I've seen him race in a pace pressing position so I just hoped he wouldn't run an "oh so close" race without winning again.  But that's what happened as he was about half a head behind the second choice on the wire.  Sigh.....  Less than a half an hour later it was time for my BET of the Weekend in the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher.  Midnight Bissou and Monomoy Girl were the two top 3yo fillies of 2018 with Monomoy Girl eventually wining the Breeders' Cup Distaff as my top pick last November when we were at Churchill Downs.  But she has yet to return to the races while Midnight Bissou began her season in late January by taking the Gr 3 Houston Ladies Classic as the prohibitive choice but was JUST up in time.  She's since followed that with four consecutive graded wins including decisive scores in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and last time out in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont.  She just looked much, MUCH the best here.  Heading into the far turn Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith was saving ground on the rail behind a wall of four fillies turning for home.  This could get dicey I thought, but the rail opened and he asked for her kick.  In a flash she blew by Coach Rocks (the GP Oaks winner from last year) and edged clear without being asked for her very best.  The payoff was minuscule, but as I've often said and written, in cases like this the thrill for me is picking the winner and putting my money down to reflect my confidence.

Next on my list was the co-featured Grade 2 San Diego Handicap from Del Mar.  Heading into last year's Breeders' Cup trainer John Sadler sent out a sensationally talented colt in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile named Catalina Cruiser.  This colt had rattled off four straight wins, the last two in graded company and his Beyers stamped him as a legitimate superstar.  But Sadler was winless from over 30 BC starters and I just wasn't convinced.  I didn't have the winner, but 'Cruiser didn't win either, suffering his first defeat.  One of his wins had come in THIS race last year so we knew he liked Del Mar.  He'd made his 2019 return with a super effort winning the Grade 2 True North on the Belmont Stakes undercard and looked primed for a big effort today.  It was a short field and he should have dominated as the prohibitive favorite.  He won, but he was FAR from his best this afternoon, still, had the winning ticket on my second big bet of the day.

I ran second in three consecutive races before it was time for the featured Grade 1 $1 Million TVG Haskell Invitational.  I'd had Jason Servis' Maximum Security in two straight Optional Claiming wins at Gulfstream this past winter when he was sprinting.  I really didn't think he could carry his speed when based on his big Beyer figures they tried the Grade 1 Florida Derby, but he won.  I again didn't think he was that good and watched as he crossed the wire first in the Kentucky Derby, only to have his number taken down in a controversial disqualification.  He came back a month ago in the TVG Pegasus but he hopped at the break and was nailed on the wire by Todd Pletcher's King For A Day, who was back to challenge today.  Maximum Security drew the widest post, #7 today and I didn't think he'd get an uncontested lead so he'd have to rate off the front runners.  I thought that he would not disappoint today.  But in the lead-up to the race I began to wonder about Bob Baffert's Mucho Gusto who had been really impressive in winning the Grade 3 Affirmed.  And then there's the fact that Baffert is an EIGHT-time winner of the Haskell over the last thirteen years.  In fact I remember him winning it a couple of years ago and my remarking, "How hard is it to win the Haskell when Baffert is in it?"  And IF there was a contested pace and/or Maximum Security got early pressure, then Mucho Gusto would set the ideal trip.  I was unsettled until about ten minutes before post time I re-opened the past performances.......

I'm a big believer in Beyer speed figures and as you can see, the numbers CLEARLY pointed out the "Derby winner."  I felt even more confident when hottie Gabby Gaudet interviewed trainer Jason Servis in the paddock and he said he never liked to say he felt confident, but that he felt "very good" about Maximum Security today.  I decided to up the investment a click.  Jockey Luis Saez sat patiently three-wide as King For A Day dueled on the lead with a longshot runner, then made his move on the turn.  He surged to the front and as the camera switched angles King for a Day checked sharply but I didn't really think anything of it.  Mucho Gusto came to Maximum Security and they dueled until Maximum Security refused to yield and edged clear late.  But within minutes the announcement, "Ladies and Gentlemen the stewards have posted the INQUIRY sign and it involves the unoffical winner, please hold all tickets."  You HAVE to be kidding me.  The investigation was brief and while I'm sure neither Todd Pletcher or John Velazquez was happy with the result the video did NOT show decisively that anyone interfered with or caused the problem and King for a Day was already backing up.  It was the right call and Maximum Security got the big Gr 1 win.

After missing with the last pick at Del Mar I closed the day with a good 4-for-9 record.

Sunday July 21:  Coaching Club of America Day
The first "concern" I had about today's races was when I handicapped the Monmouth card I came up with seven selections from the eleven race card, and I wondered if I had been too "open minded" about my picks.  I really believe one of the reasons I score at such a high percentage at Monmouth over the summer is that I am very picky about only betting when I an sure I have a solid play.  I added in the picks from yesterday's Saratoga card - moved to today - to those picks and my plan for the day was to watch the day-long racing from the two venues.  A little after 11 am I went to Xpressbet to get the scratches for today and Monmouth was listed as "CAN" - could that mean they are cancelled?  After running on Friday and Saturday, suddenly it's "too hot" on Sunday?

I checked on Twitter and found the above.  Really?  But it is NOT too hot to race in New York today?  Just wow......So I went from a full day of racing, again, to just four selections.  As I was waiting for Saratoga to begin I went through the Brisnet entries for several tracks to see if anything jumped out to me.  The only thing that caught my eye was in Gulfstream's tenth race.  I went to the Xpressbet "Daily Picks" and found that the favorite, #6 Ice Tea was coming off of a big effort with a big Beyer figure and if he could stretch out in distance he would dominate this group.  I decided to put him, tentatively, on my selection sheet and check out what the GP analysts had to say prior to the race.  My first pick of the day came in the 3rd at Saratoga, on the turf where I liked a Chad Brown runner.  Scratched.  It just keeps getting better and better, right?  In the 4th it was the Grade 1 Coaching Club of America Oaks with a short field of just four 3yo filles going nine furlongs.  Check out the favorite....

Two things immediately jumped out to me.  First, this must be ONE very talented filly to have run such huge Beyer figures, and jumped right into Gr 1 company at Belmont, AND won convincingly.  But, the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont is a one-turn mile and today not only were we running at Saratoga but we were going two turns and nine furlongs.  That seemed to be the only question but as a daughter of Breeders' Cup champion Ghostzapper the distance should NOT be a problem.  I stuck with my pick.  Right to the front and despite some pressure she opened up turning for home.  Then Javier Castellano had Point of Honor in full gear coming from just off the pace.  She was a 3-for-4 filly who'd won the Suncoast Stakes for me at Tampa and most recently the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes.  She got close but then Guarana opened up and drew off again.

One-for-one!  Post time for this graded stakes had been a little after 2 pm and my next pick wasn't until nearly 4:30 pm.  Several times I was tempted by the comments of the TVG hosts, but I stuck to my original picks.  And as Race 8 approached at the Spa I wondered if maybe I shouldn't back off.  The eighth was a maiden special for juvenile fillies going six furlongs.  I had picked Basin as my top choice from the Steve Asmussen barn.  She had debuted as the even money favorite in a Churchill Downs event.  Tracked the leader, rallied and just missed by a diminishing nose.  The 70 Beyer was strong compared to those with experience.  But what caught my eye was that the winner had come back to win convincingly here on opening weekend in the Grade 3 Sanford.  AND DRF analyst Mike Beer noted (even though he did NOT put Basin on top) that DRF Formulator stats (which allow you to run all kinds of filters) showed that trainer Steve Asmussen was a whopping 9-for-18 with two-year olds making their second start at Saratoga, in MSW dirt sprints.  How narrow is that for checking numbers!  To be fair, the sample size was small, but not so small that it didn't catch my eye.  As the full field hit the turn Basin surged to the front.  The other two top choices made a run, but could never get to him.  And the best part was that even though he'd been the favorite throughout the entire betting window, as they went to post he'd clicked up in value and was no longer the favorite.

The generous $6.00 payoff allowed me to cash for $30 and guarantee a winning day.  Later in the day the thoroughbred magazine, "Bloodhorse" did a feature story on Basin as the first winner from Laim's Map, who won the 2015 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland .... as my BET of the DAY on BC Friday when I was there with Keith.  The article is HERE.    Here's a link to my visit to Keeneland's Breeders' Cup in 2015....click HERE.  I missed on the last two picks from Saratoga, but I went ahead with the play at Gulfstream.  Ice Tea when right to the front and never looked in danger.  Considering how good he apparently looked in the Form somehow he went off at a very fair 3/5 price and I cashed for nearly $20 to close the eventful weekend.

So starting with the Hofburg win on Thursday through the Saratoga races (and GP)  I concluded the extended Haskell Weekend with a score of 21 / 10 - 5 - 0, a winning percentage of 47% - whoooo hooooo!

Haskell Week Highlights

July 4 Extended Weekend

July 4:  Special Holiday Racing

Got an extended week of thoroughbred racing as Monmouth Park had a special holiday card on Thursday this week in honor of America's birthday.  I was a touch below my usual handicapping win percentage BUT I scored with both of my two added money investments.  The first of those two selections came in the featured Rumsom Stakes going a short five furlongs on the main track.  The way the past performances were laid out it didn't look like ANYONE was a typical front runner, so it seemed obvious to me that Paco Lopez would use his inside post to get to the front with Ray'swarrior who was trained by Jason Servis.  When those two partner together they score at an amazing 45% clip on the Jersey Shore.  Sure enough, right to the front and never looked back as the 1-2 favorite.

Right back in the sixth in a nw4L sprint where I wrote that picking Joopster was strictly a "pad your stats" pick because the DRF Best Bet of the day was THE speed from the rail with all the best Beyer figures and trained by the leading trainer on the grounds, Jorge Navarro.  Jose Ferrer was on board the prohibitive favorite who was plunging from an entry level allowance to this conditioned $8K spot.  Never took a deep breath in winning - he's the one pictured in the banner above :)

Saturday July 6:  Belmont Stars & Stripes Day

This Saturday was a great day for handicapping and racing.  Not quite as cool as BEING on track as last weekend was, but the winning came at a big clip.  The photo at left is from my birthday two years ago, but it fits very nicely with this week's racing stories!  The first bet of the day came from Great Britian and Sandown Race Course where the fabulous filly, Enable was making her 2019 debut.  Just to review her story.....in 2017 she won the prestigious Group 1 Arc de Triomphe, the most important race in Europe by beating older males going the classic mile and half distance.  Then last year she did not return to the races until September when she won a synthetic surface prep, then won the Arc for the second year in a row.  She then shipped to the US to run in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf, going a mile and a half, again - off just three weeks rest - also against males.  In the history of the BC no horse had EVER won both the Arc and the BC Turf.  There differing schools of thought on her last fall and one held that her narrow win in the Arc was a sign - as was the late start to the year - that all was not right with the filly; the other school of thought was that if she wasn't 100% (as reported) for the Arc and now in the BC she was making her third start of the year, she'd be tough to beat.  Well, I was in that camp and made her the bet of the weekend - and she scored with my $100 investment on board that sealed a winning weekend of handicapping.  Fast forward to today.  Off this long layoff, since the Breeders' Cup (eight months) she was being asked to go a mile and a quarter, in Group 1 company, again against males and her rival, Magical who she'd bested by about a length at Churchill Downs, but Magical had three races under her belt this season already.  Again, even with the Arc being the publicly stated goal for the year I found it hard to believe she wouldn't be primed for a sharp effort.  She was under a hand ride as she hit the front with about a furlong to go, and as Magical was all out to try and catch her jockey Franki Detorri gave her the "GO" button and she held that one safe to win and provide me with the first score of the day!

That was at 10:35 am and my next race wasn't until the 2nd at Monmouth.  As is typical for a Saturday where I'm playing at the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" - that would be our home - I had the TVG live broadcast going as well as my xpressbet video feeds.  The second on the Jersey Shore was a Maiden Special event going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.  It looked to me like a very talented field where I'll be surprised if at least three of these don't make some noise in stakes events through the summer and fall.  But I liked Todd Pletcher's Bellera who had been a good second going the demanding distance of 7f in her GP debut while earning a big 76 Beyer.  Pletcher has strong stats on the stretch-out and second time maidens.  She made her move on the turn and won for fun.  Belmont Park was hosting it's "Stars and Stripes" program on it's Closing Weekend before Saratoga opens this upcoming Thursday.  There were five graded stakes on the program so I was playing here, along with the Jersey Shore today.  The second at Belmont was a mile and a sixteenth MSW on the turf and I liked Southern Brigade.  The field was evenly matched and even as the favorite she went off at a generous 7/2 price. Jockey Luis Saez made his move on the turn and spurted clear then maintained the advantage to the wire for my second win of the day at a nice $9.40 payoff.

The third at Monmouth was my next pick and the announcers on TVG commented that Monmouth was moving up their post times because of an impending storm.  I didn't know why, but I could see the race unfolding on my video feed on my laptop.  The prohibitive favorite looked to be Golden Brown who'd won the Dan Horn just two weeks ago over some of today's rivals.  That might be a worry, but then you noted that of the 52 turf races run by his rivals ONE figure could beat his five career turf numbers.  Swept by on the turn under Paco Lopez and as it was called by announcer Frank Mirahmadi, Golden Brown was under a "stranglehold" and won easily.  FOUR in a row to start the day, WHOOO HOOOO.

By the time they went to the post for Monmouth's fourth it was raining pretty good.  But still, my pick, Luna Azteca won easily as the short priced favorite, and now I've won five in a row.  Next up was the first of the stakes races at Delaware, where I was playing because (a) they had multiple stakes events today and (b) I'll be there next Saturday for the Delaware Handicap Day.  The first stakes was the Cape Henlopen going a mile and a half on the turf.  Canessar was 5/1 in the program and was coming off of eight straight strong efforts (without a win) in graded company.  The last time he ran in a listed event, like this, was in this North American debut when arriving from France and he won the Laurel Turf Cup at this distance.  Turning for home he was near the back and behind horses, but jockey Fergal Lynch got him in the clear and in a sudden burst he went from the back to the front and was ridden out to victory....SIX IN A ROW for me!

Finally suffered a loss in a maiden event at Belmont before it was time for the next race at Delaware, the Carl Hanford Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.  Dr. Blarney showed a career record of NINETEEN wins from just twenty-seven starts and he was 9/6-1-0 at this distance and 6/4-1-0 locally.  His Beyers did not make him a standout but winners like to win.  Right to the front and never looked back at a more than fair price of 2/1 for my seventh win on the day.

I kept trying to make my bet on the fifth at Monmouth but the xpressbet page wouldn't open.  Then I saw the announcement, due to the heavy rain and lightning Monmouth had cancelled the remainder of the card.  WOW.  There goes four future selections/bets for the day.  The sixth at Belmont was the start of their graded stakes program, and it was the one-mile Grade 3 Dwyer for three-year-olds.  As I noted in my analysis, I wouldn't blame you for going against me because the time I'd bet on Code of Honor last winter at Gulfstream he was no where to be found.  Then he won the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth and was a solid third in the Gr 1 Kentucky Derby (moved up to 2nd after the controversial DQ of the unofficial winner Maximum Security).  But he just looked ready to roll to me for jockey John Velazquez and Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey.  While only five off the front turning for home he was in last, then Johnny V. made his move outside of the leaders and when the daylight showed, Honor Code quickly accelerated clear with track announcer Larry Colmus exclaiming, "Oh he's back in a big way!"

I couldn't give up on two-year-old phenom Newspaperofrecord as she ran in the Gr 1 Belmont Oaks, but she backed up badly as the 8/5 favorite.  Missed in the Gr 3 Delaware Oaks right after before we got to the 8th at Belmont, the Grade 2 John Nerud....formerly known as the Belmont Sprint Stakes.  DRF analyst Mike Beer commented that Promises Fulfilled "has not come back as sharp this year" and he was against him here.  I completely disagreed and made 'Promises my BET of the Day at Belmont.  Going back to last summer, he came off of a career best 107 Beyer when winning the Grade 3 Amsterdam at Saratoga, he'd earned figures of 99-101-98.  Two of those were graded stakes wins and the third (98) was a 4th in the Gr 1 BC Sprint when he dueled through absurd fractions before weakening to fourth.  His first start of 2019 came in the Group 1 Golden Shaheen in Dubai where after being away slowly he was 4th, beaten only three lengths and earned a TimeForm figure of 115, which would translate into about a 101 on the Beyer scale.  A 99 was his next when third in the 7f Grade 1 Churchill Downs, then he tried a one-turn mile in the Gr 1 Met Mile and earned a 101 when fourth.  So, ok, you could argue he hadn't won but the numbers this year.... 101, 99, 101 after last year he posted numbers of 99-101-98 - I don't see that as coming back "not as sharp."  On top of everything else, the cut back in distance worked in his favor AND he looked like the controlling speed.  Never in doubt, and especially after he was able to back down the opening fractions.  EASILY best and I cashed on my ninth win of the day for over thirty dollars.

Missed in three stakes to close out the afternoon and then waited until just after 8 pm for the feature at Los Alamitos, the Grade 2 Great Lady M.  Amusing side story - I started recording the TVG broadcast and then set the recorder for the 7pm "Trackside:  The Great Lady M" on TVG so I wouldn't have to watch the replay online.  When Kim and I took a break from our television viewing so I could see the race, I fast forwarded to post time.  But as the horses broke from the gate, the recording ended....apparently they'd fallen behind on their post time.  Sigh....so I went online and watched as Marley's Freedom blew by the field at the top of the stretch and easily won!  That made me a whopping 10-for-16 on the day, a gigantic 62% (thus the b'day photo at the top!)

Stars & Stripes Day Highlights

Sunday July 7
All of the rain at Monmouth yesterday had soaked the area so we were off the turf.  I ran through all the selections and past performances.  Five turf races originally had selections for me.  In the opener I opted to go with the "Main Track Only" Curious Cal who scored as the favorite.  In the third and fifth races I passed.  In the 9th, the featured Jersey Girl I stuck with Diamond Play who had the lead at 5/2 odds inside the final fifty yards but was nailed on the wire, second.  Then in the 11th I switched to Meade who went off as the second choice and won.  So a 2-for-5, 40% day to end the week.  :)

Summit of Speed Day

Saturday June 29th

Today was THE big day of the Spring/Summer Meet at Gulfstream, literally the only day between Florida Derby Day and Opening Day of the Championship Meet in December that you have real quality racing from top to bottom like we enjoy throughout the winter.  The original Summit of Speed Day was created by Calder Race Course as a way to drawn national attention to South Florida during the summer and the niche they found was for sprinters.  Over several years multiple champions shipped in with big name trainers and jockeys and it was always a day to look forward to at the Miami Gardens track.  But once Calder disappeared Gulfstream has picked up the baton and they have also done a wonderful job creating a "Super Saturday" experience which rivals most big days from January through March.  Today's program featured five stakes races, two of them graded and one of those a prestigious "Win and You're In" Breeders' Cup Challenge Race.  I knew I'd play both Gulfstream and Monmouth - because I handicap all Monmouth live cards, but the question for me was should I play any other tracks?  Last weekend, Ohio Derby Weekend, if I'd played just Monmouth and a couple of the big races I'd have had a stellar day, so I didn't want to "tarnish" a good day of racing at GP and the Jersey Shore by playing too many tracks.  In the end I decided to play Woodbine, where it was Queen's Plate Day - the start of their 3yo Triple Crown series and where there were multiple stakes, and Belmont which had two strong stakes events.  I also reached out to one of my now best friends, and formerly favorite student, Kimmy Westmoreland, who lives very close to Gulfstream Park and invited her to join me for some racing and/or dinner afterwards.  The day could not have worked at better!

The first "issue" came early in the week when the weather forecast called for a lot of rain through the end of the week, but clearing weather for the weekend.  But then the weather system slowed and by late Thursday all the weather forecasts were terming Saturday a "washout."  Great - the one big day and it's going to not only rain, but all the forecasts called for heavy rain and thunderstorms.  But I never really wavered in my commitment to go to the races, I go so infrequently I wasn't going to let the inclimate weather ruin MY day.  Early in the morning it did pour, but by the time I left the house around 10:30 am it was just raining.  Not enough to have the windshield wipers on regular, but definitely raining.  And as I approached Hallandale Beach I could see off to the east the skies looked "better," rather than dark and ominous.  The conditions were "sloppy" and all races were off the turf.  But from my handicapping I only lost one race play locally.  And fortunately and the other three tracks I was playing it was sunny, with fast & firm track conditions.  In the Gulfstream opener I passed - it was a MSW on the turf and who'd run and how they'd run was a toss-up.  I was a little interested in a first time starter - he stayed in the race and won for fun as the favorite.  The second race featured a short priced favorite who'd won last time out by 13 1/2 lengths and now moved into the leading barn which had big numbers first off the claim.  But to me I thought he was a likely bounce candidate - the new barn stats were offset I thought by him stepping up in class and the fact he'd never run within 20 points of that big number he earned.  I preferred what turned out to be the second choice in the wagering, Doc Kane.  He too had been claimed out of his last, but two things about that were big win angles.  First trainer Elizabeth Nobles is 31% first off the claim, and second she'd lost him to a claim several months ago and now had re-claimed him.  I always like that.  The two favorites moved together on the turn but it was Doc Kane who opened up and easily ran away from the favorite!  WHOOO HOOO - one bet, one win!

Next up was the first stakes from Woodbine, the Charley Barley going a mile on the turf.  Global Access had never been on the turf but had the Tomlinson figures to indicate he'd like it AND he was the 1/1 program favorite.  Sent off at the same even money he rallied, but without a strong stretch kick and was only third.  The third at Gulfstream was the Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint, named for the then Calder Racing Secretary who'd helped create this special program AND notably, Calder had been one of the first racing venues to offer sprinting on the turf.  With the weather this one was now moved to the main track.  On the inner course I thought 14x winner Pay Any Price would speed right to the front and wire the field, but he would not run on the dirt.  I did note however in the past performances and in my handicapping analysis that IF it was moved to the main track, it looked to me like jockey Emisael Jaramillo would STILL be in the winner's circle and with trainer Georgina Baxter as they had main track only Lady's Island.  True, she was a mare facing the boys, but she looked to be the LONE SPEED and from a cozy outside draw she looked to get away cleanly and be LONG GONE.  She broke slowly but recovered instantly and within the first five jumps had cleared the field easily and was cruising on a daylight lead.  Opened up turning for home and handily kicked the boys' butts!  I was delighted I'd stuck with my triple investment and now I was 2-for-2 at Gulfstream - oh it's good to be back at the races!

I didn't have anything until the next live race and when I looked at the runners it was obvious to me that this $10K maiden claimer was a complete toss-up.  Probably best to avoid this one and move on, but then, wait a tic......on the rail was WW Handsome who had only been out five times, but some numbers jumped off the page.  His trainer Scott Becker was winning at a big 36% clip.  Last time out 'Handsome had come off a layoff and tried the turf for the first time, obviously hated it.  Now we were turning back from a two-turn turf to a one-turn dirt mile for a winning barn.  Hmmmm, and he was getting blinkers OFF.  That was a 40% win angle for Becker and 2nd off the shelf was a strong 32% win angle.  Underrated jockey Sammy Camacho was winning at a 50% clip for Becker from limited mounts.  At ten-to-one, it was worth a shot.  He got some mention from the public handicappers and some people played in knocking his price down, but he was quickly in position racing third into the turn.  Made "the move" to the front, opened up turning for home and just walked with it!  THREE-FOR-THREE at Gulfstream.

His $11.20 payoff led to a near $30 payoff with just a minimum play!  The second race at Monmouth was coming up next and it was a claiming race that looked to be an "instant replay" of the same class and distance event held June 1st.  On that day Wrong Ben had left the gate as the 1/2 favorite while coming off a layoff.  He dueled through wicked fractions (:44.4 half mile) with Johnny U - who was back today as well - but after putting away that pace rival he was run down late but was 2nd while three clear of the field.  Not only did I think he'd improve just being off the shelf, but I also thought that Johnny U would regress on a barn change that's 0-for-13.  The gates opened and the two went at it for about two-hundred yards, then Johnny U cleared off.  But it didn't look to me that it was because he'd outrun 'Ben, but rather that he let him go on.  Sure enough on the turn, Ben inhaled him and set sail for the wire a daylight winner.  I'd tripled the bet and would cash for nearly $35 on my four win from five selections.  My GP pick was scratched (off the turf) and I lost at Monmouth and Belmont before heading to the windows to put down my money on Monmouth's fourth, a second level allowance race with sprinters going six furlongs.  The main concern most would have would be that Lasting Legacy was coming off a long layoff and would be a short price.  BUT she ran for Jason Servis who wins with 43% of his layoff runners and when top jockey Paco Lopez is up, they team up for 44% winners.  She was sent off as the 3/5 favorite but when the gates sprung open she was caught flat-footed and spotted the field about five or six lengths.  After gathering her feet under her and getting her into stride Paco moved up the rail to reach third.  But mid-way on the turn a wall of four horses were in front of him and he had no where to go.  A seam appeared to be opening outside and he began to move, but got shut off.  Then one-off-the-rail another seam opened and he accelerated.  We were only a furlong from home and the new leader was in full stride.  Lasting Legacy seemed to come to even terms, then drop back.  But in the final 100 yards she re-surged again.....PHOTO FINISH!  Live and on replay I wasn't sure......

YES!  Another winner and I'd collect over $15!  The most likely winner on the Gulfstream card appeared to be Well Defined in the Carry Back.  He'd won the Grade 3 Sam Davis before failing to repeat in the Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby.  This 7f listed event seemed ideal, and in a situation I have rarely seen, both GP handicapper Ron Nicoletti and the DRF's Mike Welsch made him their Best Bet.  He loomed boldly into the stretch and stopped a well-beaten 5th at even money.  Nothing until the seventh at Gulfstream which was originally carded as an entry level turf sprint.  I liked Go Gone Gone who moved into a 31% barn today and had hot-riding apprentice Cristian Torres.  I liked it a lot that he'd shown real ability on the main track so no matter what I was betting here.  He pressed the pace for a quarter of a mile from his outside post, said "I've had enough of this" and cruised to a clear lead, opened up and sprinted home by daylight.  Cashed for almost $25 as I ran my local record to 5-for-6.  It's a good day indeed.

Summit of Speed Day Highlights

Part 1

I went through my only real "losing" spell as I missed on four in a row with my runners hitting the board only once (2nd at 1/5 at Belmont).  The eighth at Monmouth was a claiming event going six furlongs and I thought there were two ways to look at Distinctive Lady.  IF you were willing to look past her ugly last race she'd run five straight numbers that would all win here.  But off that bad effort the connections were plunging her from a $12.5K tag to this basement level $5K.  That's not a good sign.  But, Paco Lopez was riding.  I interpreted this as the connections were willing to lose her, but wanted to pick up the purse today and the claiming price.  And if no one took her it would be a confidence builder and she could begin to climb back up the ladder.  She came away sharply and dueled on the inside of the even money favorite.  Midway on the turn that one edged clear by more than a length and my first thought, honestly, was that Paco always has something left - don't give up yet!  Sure enough, once they turned for home he asked 'Lady to turn it up a notch and she got into the bit and fought back gamely.  Got to even terms a hundred yards out and edged clear.  Cashed on my 7th winner of the day and third from Monmouth Park!  Within minutes it was post time at Woodbine for the Grade 2 Dance Smartly going the marathon mile and a quarter distance.  Holy Helena had won the Queen's Plate, beating the boys two years ago and has since become a multiple graded stakes winner on the grass.  Her specialty is this kind of race.  She sat comfortably just off the leaders into the far turn, and then Javier Castellano refused to ask too soon knowing that the Woodbine stretch is the longest in North America.  About 3/16th out he asked and she began to inhale those in front of her.  Caught the long time leader at the 16th pole and edged clear!  I had my first graded win of the day and my eight winning ticket while collecting nearly $25.

I went back and forth about betting the tenth at GP, a MSW for 2yo but Genghis had run big numbers while second twice.  Was he just the victim of bad luck or was he just good enough to be second best?  Sent off at even money he looked good into the turn, then gave way willingly and ran second again.  The 7th at Belmont was their co-feature, the Perfect Sting going a mile on the turf.  You HAD to like Uni in spite of the almost certain short price.  She'd won a Grade 1 last time out, but that was last fall - so you KNOW trainer Chad Brown has bigger targets down the road.  Still, he excels with layoff runners - especially on the grass.  And the fact was, Uni had won four in a row, five of her last six (three in graded events).  She laid over this field on class and speed figures.  And then, oh yeah, she is a perfect 4-for-4 at the mile distance.  Midway on the far turn she was last in the short field and behind a wall of horses, but I could tell jockey Joel Rosario was riding very confidently.  He picked the ideal moment to steer her clear to the outside and accelerate at the same time.  He literally shook the reins once and she was on the hip of the leader, shook them again and she was long gone under a hand ride.  WOW, she's good.

The feature at Monmouth was a disappointment as my pick, the 6/5 favorite was no where to be found in sixth.  Then it was time for the featured Grade 2 Mother Goose at Belmont - a one-turn mile for three-year-old fillies.  As soon as I'd seen Dunbar Road in the entries I knew I wanted to play the card today.  She'd debuted at Gulfstream early in March and was a runaway winner.  Trainer Chad Brown immediately late-supplemented her to the Kentucky Oaks and entered her in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks for her first try against winners.  She came with a flying rally, but on the speed favoring Hallandale track she couldn't get there in time - didn't help we had a first finish line / short stretch that day.  Brown gave her time and plotted a path to the major 3yo filly features of the summer.  He brought her back in an easy allowance tune-up last time and if she showed even some of her ability she looked tough to beat today.  It wasn't without some drama though as she was in and among fillies all the way to the far turn, and then had no choice but to be shuffled to the back of the compact field.  Ortiz eased her into the clear as they came out of the sweeping Belmont turn and said "GO" and go she did.  In the blink of an eye she'd caught the leaders and in the final 16th she drew off as easily, EASILY the best.  This filly has a big future I'm telling you.  She was the BEST of the Day.

The Woodbine featured $1 Million Queen's Plate had a full field of fourteen and I thought that probably the best colt in the lineup was the 2yo Canadian Champion Avie's Flatter.  But, (a) he'd only had one race - a turf win in a Keeneland stakes - and was drawn in post 14.  Too much to ask.  So I went with the second choice.  Missed the break, checked early and was done.  No, the favorite didn't win.  Menaced at the top of the lane, but ran out of gas.  The twelfth at Gulfstream was the featured Grade 2 Princess Rooney, a seven furlong sprint which was a "Win and You're In" Breeders' Cup Challenge event.  Last year Stormy Embrace had won this race and went on to the Breeders' Cup.  She was overmatched (outrun at 45/1 odds) and she'd run well to be 2nd and 3rd in two GP Championship Meet graded events.  But she looked formidable today.  Last year she used the Musical Romance as a prep - won then scored in this Gr 2 with a career best 97 Beyer.  Well, she took the same route this year, but aired with authority in the Musical Romance earning a new career high 99 speed figure.  Anything even close to that and the rest were contesting the minor prizes.  As the field hit the far turn she cruised to the front before the rising 3yo star made a move.  Briefly, oh so briefly you had that "uh oh" feeling, but then....NO, she was long gone.  My FIFTH win locally.  She's earned a spot in the BC World Championships again!

No bet until the Grade 3 Smile Stakes and I liked the lightly raced Jalen Journey.  He went off at 6/5 and surged to the front turning for home but paid the price for dueling through the first five furlongs, second best under the wire.  At about this time I got a text from Kimmy asking what I wanted to do for dinner.  Pretty excited we were going to get together - we have such a great connection and never run out of things to talk about.  I told her I was already here and unless she had a better idea to join me here and we'd eat at one of the many places here.  I ran third at 4/5 in the 11th at Woodbine before Kimmy arrived.  We asked someone to take our photo and went into the Yardhouse for the evening.  We were there from 6:30 until almost 11:30 and shared stories and caught up.  Just great fun.  I had planned to buy her dinner but her big news was SHE had gotten a big promotion and now makes more than twice the money I do every month.  I grudgingly agreed, which made her happy and she said it should make me proud that I'd help "mold her" into such a success :)  Awwww shucks.  While she was paying the bill I checked my last race - the finale at Woodbine......another winner and at a nice $6.70 price with a double investment to net a return of nearly $35.  Finished 12-for-25, nearly 50% on the day......five for nine at Gulfstream.......won multiple out of town graded stakes......met with one of my most favorite people on the planet.....what could have been better?  What a day!

Summit of Speed Highlights

Part 2 

Belmont Week / Alaska

June 1 - 8 

Alaska Cruise / Belmont Festival

On Thursday May 30 Kim and I left Orlando to fly to Anchorage, to begin our "Alaska 5.0" adventure.  It marked our fifth trip the the "Last Frontier" and this time we were meeting our great friends Claudia & Gary Wanlin there for the trip.  You can check out the trip by visiting our Alaska website, click HERE

I had decided prior to the trip that I would take the nearly two weeks off from handicapping and playing the races, but while we were in Denali National Park for the first weekend I saw online that two of my favorite runners were racing on Saturday.  So from our hotel at the park I was able to bet the races through my xpressbet app.  The first was the re-scheduled Greenwood Stakes from Woodbine where Horse-for-the-Course Pink Lloyd looked to be formidable at a very short price.  He stalked the pace in fourth to the far turn of the sprint stakes, then swung up on the outside and powered home a winner!

The second race I liked was the Grade 2 Santa Maria from Santa Anita where Paradise Woods looked to be as formidable.  She moved too early to the front, I thought, and was caught on the wire, second.

The second week of our trip was Belmont Festival Week with big stakes races on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  And while I DID decide I wouldn't "play the races," I also had figured - because I knew I had time on the ship - that I'd look over the big stakes races and maybe make a few spot plays.  I thought by Tuesday the past performances for the stakes events on Thursday would be up, but when I went to check I discovered that all of my racing sites (drf.com, brisnet.com, and xpressbet.com) were blocked by the Holland America Cruise line server.  Why?  Go figure?  But for some reason the link to the Bloodhorse magazine website was not blocked.  I wasn't able to access the past performances, not could I get the entries for all the races on the card but I could see who was running in the stakes races.  At this point I figured I'd make my spot play selections, and post them on my website (a couple of people who follow my racing selections had inquired about that).  But I figured I wouldn't be able to bet them.  On Thursday June 6 there was only one race that I liked, the Grade 3 Wonder Again where Newspaperofrecord looked to be the easiest of winners at a minuscule price.  She'd disappointed in her seasonal debut in the Grade 3 Edgewood on Kentucky Oaks Day, but afterwards the comments by the trainer and jockey led me to believe that they knew she wasn't 100% but that her next start we'd see the "real" Newspaperofrecord.  We got off the ship for our excursion that afternoon and because we were in Alaska, a US state, I could turn the WiFi off and use the basic phone signal at no cost.  I tried my xpressbet app and sure enough, it worked!  ALRIGHT, I can bet the race!  Unfortunately, she went off at a meager 1/9 price and had a daylight lead into the stretch, but was run down by her stablemate.  Whether she was one of "those" two-year-olds that are so good as a juvenile but don't carry it into their three-year-old season, or it was the 9f distance of today's race we don't know, but she was second for the second time after having what looked like a commanding lead turning for home.  The races on Friday only had one that appealed to me.  It was the Grade 2 True North Stakes and I liked Catalina Cruiser.  He'd been a real terror last year out west and came into the Breeders' Cup Mile as a short-priced favorite.  He didn't fire that day.  And this was his first start back.  I thought that the fact that trainer John Sadler shipped him across the country to run today spoke to how serious they were and I bet him, but just the minimum.  On the bus ride back from our excursion I checked the results and I'd won!

The $5.60 payoff meant I'd get back nearly $15.  After I closed the app and I told Kim I'd won I remarked that it was too bad that all day tomorrow, on Belmont Day - where I had five selections - we'd be at sea.  So I wouldn't be able to bet.  But within a couple minutes the thought occurred to me that often on big event days like this there is advanced wagering.  I re-opened my app and sure enough, there was a "Belmont Advanced" wagering menu.  I plugged in all five wagers before we arrived back at the ship, and I knew I'd be able to check the results on the Bloodhorse page later in the day Saturday.  The first bet came in the fourth race, it was the Grade 1 Just A Game for older fillies and mares going a mile.  Chad Brown's Rushing Fall had only lost one time - due to a very poorly judged ride I believe - and she just looked really strong.  As I remarked in my analysis not only did she simply look like the best horse in the field but the rivals lining up to face her were less than formidable.  Javier Castellano took her right to the front, set moderate fractions and when the field began to pick up the pace turning for home his filly had plenty left and she accelerated home a daylight winner!

Next up was the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps going a mile and a sixteenth, and the distance was a key part of my selection.  Midnight Bissou has won nine of her last thirteen starts, and in three of the four losses she was beaten by Monomoy Girl, one of which was the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff.  Well, Monomoy Girl has yet to begin her 2019 campaign so Midnight Bissou is the divisional leader by default.  To be fair, she is unbeaten in three starts this year, including a win in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom last time out.  BUT it was also significant that she was a perfect 8-for-8 at this 8 1/2 furlong distance.  She rode the rails in fourth to midway on the far turn, swung out and collared the 4/5 favorite - how 'Bissou wasn't the public choice I'll never know - and drew off as much, MUCH the best.  Two for two on the day :)

The Grade 1 Jaipur Invitational was next on my sheet.  This six furlong turf sprint has been owned the last two years by Disco Partner and he was in the field today.  But this afternoon he'd have to face World of Trouble who has been just a beast this year.  He's won in off-the-turf sprints, on the turf, and event took down a 7 furlong dirt sprint last time out.  Just white-hot form and I didn't see anyone capable of running with him.  He burst from the gate and rattled off wicked splits of :21.4 and :43.4 which going five furlongs might have made him susceptible to a closer like Disco Partner but at this six furlong distance those kind of fractions could be troublesome.  Not for World of Trouble!  He continued to pour it on and drew off in a dazzling display of speed stopping the teletimer in a remarkable 1:06.2.  He was my first "big" bet of the day, and I was cashing for the third consecutive time!  I'm having a very good day.

The ninth race was the Grade 1 Met Mile and it was a star studded affair with a field.  It was considered a great betting race and I could have easily seen any one of six horses win, but I have been very impressed with the improving Mitole who won the 7 furlong, Grade 2 Churchill Downs last time out in impressive fashion.  I liked him here in this one-turn mile.  He pressed fast fractions into the stretch and edged to the front.  To be fair McKenzie was probably the best horse but he was buried behind horses through the turn and midway through the stretch AND had to check and alter course.  But Mitole held them all off and won paying a generous $9 :)  And now I'm four-for-four with my BET of the Day coming up.

That big bet came in the tenth, the Grade 1 Manhattan carded for a mile and a quarter on the turf.  I picked Chad Brown's Bricks and Mortar to win the richest turf race in North America, the Pegasus World Cup Turf, and he won decisively.  I won right back with him in the Grade 2 Muniz on the Louisiana Derby Day card and then again when he won the Grade 1 Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby Day.  He's clearly - in my opinion - the best turf horse in North America.  And I also think we have yet to see him at his best, that's bad news for all the other turf runners pointing for the Breeders' Cup.  He sat patiently under Irad Ortiz to the top of the lane, swung out about five wide and mowed them all down.  Ironically trainer Chad Brown finished 1 - 2 - 3 in the race, he is really loaded in his turf stable!  Somehow the crowd let Bricks and Mortar go off at 3/5 so I cashed for over $30!

So for the day I was a perfect 5-for-5....while sailing through the Inside Passage of Alaska no less....and finished 6-for-7 for Belmont Week with a clear profit of more than $60.  WHOOO HOOOO.

Belmont Festival Highlights

(from Alaska!)