July 4: Special Holiday Racing
Got an extended week of thoroughbred racing as Monmouth Park had a special holiday card on Thursday this week in honor of America's birthday. I was a touch below my usual handicapping win percentage BUT I scored with both of my two added money investments. The first of those two selections came in the featured Rumsom Stakes going a short five furlongs on the main track. The way the past performances were laid out it didn't look like ANYONE was a typical front runner, so it seemed obvious to me that Paco Lopez would use his inside post to get to the front with Ray'swarrior who was trained by Jason Servis. When those two partner together they score at an amazing 45% clip on the Jersey Shore. Sure enough, right to the front and never looked back as the 1-2 favorite.
Right back in the sixth in a nw4L sprint where I wrote that picking Joopster was strictly a "pad your stats" pick because the DRF Best Bet of the day was THE speed from the rail with all the best Beyer figures and trained by the leading trainer on the grounds, Jorge Navarro. Jose Ferrer was on board the prohibitive favorite who was plunging from an entry level allowance to this conditioned $8K spot. Never took a deep breath in winning - he's the one pictured in the banner above :)
Right back in the sixth in a nw4L sprint where I wrote that picking Joopster was strictly a "pad your stats" pick because the DRF Best Bet of the day was THE speed from the rail with all the best Beyer figures and trained by the leading trainer on the grounds, Jorge Navarro. Jose Ferrer was on board the prohibitive favorite who was plunging from an entry level allowance to this conditioned $8K spot. Never took a deep breath in winning - he's the one pictured in the banner above :)
Saturday July 6: Belmont Stars & Stripes Day
This Saturday was a great day for handicapping and racing. Not quite as cool as BEING on track as last weekend was, but the winning came at a big clip. The photo at left is from my birthday two years ago, but it fits very nicely with this week's racing stories! The first bet of the day came from Great Britian and Sandown Race Course where the fabulous filly, Enable was making her 2019 debut. Just to review her story.....in 2017 she won the prestigious Group 1 Arc de Triomphe, the most important race in Europe by beating older males going the classic mile and half distance. Then last year she did not return to the races until September when she won a synthetic surface prep, then won the Arc for the second year in a row. She then shipped to the US to run in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf, going a mile and a half, again - off just three weeks rest - also against males. In the history of the BC no horse had EVER won both the Arc and the BC Turf. There differing schools of thought on her last fall and one held that her narrow win in the Arc was a sign - as was the late start to the year - that all was not right with the filly; the other school of thought was that if she wasn't 100% (as reported) for the Arc and now in the BC she was making her third start of the year, she'd be tough to beat. Well, I was in that camp and made her the bet of the weekend - and she scored with my $100 investment on board that sealed a winning weekend of handicapping. Fast forward to today. Off this long layoff, since the Breeders' Cup (eight months) she was being asked to go a mile and a quarter, in Group 1 company, again against males and her rival, Magical who she'd bested by about a length at Churchill Downs, but Magical had three races under her belt this season already. Again, even with the Arc being the publicly stated goal for the year I found it hard to believe she wouldn't be primed for a sharp effort. She was under a hand ride as she hit the front with about a furlong to go, and as Magical was all out to try and catch her jockey Franki Detorri gave her the "GO" button and she held that one safe to win and provide me with the first score of the day!
That was at 10:35 am and my next race wasn't until the 2nd at Monmouth. As is typical for a Saturday where I'm playing at the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" - that would be our home - I had the TVG live broadcast going as well as my xpressbet video feeds. The second on the Jersey Shore was a Maiden Special event going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. It looked to me like a very talented field where I'll be surprised if at least three of these don't make some noise in stakes events through the summer and fall. But I liked Todd Pletcher's Bellera who had been a good second going the demanding distance of 7f in her GP debut while earning a big 76 Beyer. Pletcher has strong stats on the stretch-out and second time maidens. She made her move on the turn and won for fun. Belmont Park was hosting it's "Stars and Stripes" program on it's Closing Weekend before Saratoga opens this upcoming Thursday. There were five graded stakes on the program so I was playing here, along with the Jersey Shore today. The second at Belmont was a mile and a sixteenth MSW on the turf and I liked Southern Brigade. The field was evenly matched and even as the favorite she went off at a generous 7/2 price. Jockey Luis Saez made his move on the turn and spurted clear then maintained the advantage to the wire for my second win of the day at a nice $9.40 payoff.
The third at Monmouth was my next pick and the announcers on TVG commented that Monmouth was moving up their post times because of an impending storm. I didn't know why, but I could see the race unfolding on my video feed on my laptop. The prohibitive favorite looked to be Golden Brown who'd won the Dan Horn just two weeks ago over some of today's rivals. That might be a worry, but then you noted that of the 52 turf races run by his rivals ONE figure could beat his five career turf numbers. Swept by on the turn under Paco Lopez and as it was called by announcer Frank Mirahmadi, Golden Brown was under a "stranglehold" and won easily. FOUR in a row to start the day, WHOOO HOOOO.
By the time they went to the post for Monmouth's fourth it was raining pretty good. But still, my pick, Luna Azteca won easily as the short priced favorite, and now I've won five in a row. Next up was the first of the stakes races at Delaware, where I was playing because (a) they had multiple stakes events today and (b) I'll be there next Saturday for the Delaware Handicap Day. The first stakes was the Cape Henlopen going a mile and a half on the turf. Canessar was 5/1 in the program and was coming off of eight straight strong efforts (without a win) in graded company. The last time he ran in a listed event, like this, was in this North American debut when arriving from France and he won the Laurel Turf Cup at this distance. Turning for home he was near the back and behind horses, but jockey Fergal Lynch got him in the clear and in a sudden burst he went from the back to the front and was ridden out to victory....SIX IN A ROW for me!
Finally suffered a loss in a maiden event at Belmont before it was time for the next race at Delaware, the Carl Hanford Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Dr. Blarney showed a career record of NINETEEN wins from just twenty-seven starts and he was 9/6-1-0 at this distance and 6/4-1-0 locally. His Beyers did not make him a standout but winners like to win. Right to the front and never looked back at a more than fair price of 2/1 for my seventh win on the day.
I kept trying to make my bet on the fifth at Monmouth but the xpressbet page wouldn't open. Then I saw the announcement, due to the heavy rain and lightning Monmouth had cancelled the remainder of the card. WOW. There goes four future selections/bets for the day. The sixth at Belmont was the start of their graded stakes program, and it was the one-mile Grade 3 Dwyer for three-year-olds. As I noted in my analysis, I wouldn't blame you for going against me because the time I'd bet on Code of Honor last winter at Gulfstream he was no where to be found. Then he won the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth and was a solid third in the Gr 1 Kentucky Derby (moved up to 2nd after the controversial DQ of the unofficial winner Maximum Security). But he just looked ready to roll to me for jockey John Velazquez and Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. While only five off the front turning for home he was in last, then Johnny V. made his move outside of the leaders and when the daylight showed, Honor Code quickly accelerated clear with track announcer Larry Colmus exclaiming, "Oh he's back in a big way!"
I couldn't give up on two-year-old phenom Newspaperofrecord as she ran in the Gr 1 Belmont Oaks, but she backed up badly as the 8/5 favorite. Missed in the Gr 3 Delaware Oaks right after before we got to the 8th at Belmont, the Grade 2 John Nerud....formerly known as the Belmont Sprint Stakes. DRF analyst Mike Beer commented that Promises Fulfilled "has not come back as sharp this year" and he was against him here. I completely disagreed and made 'Promises my BET of the Day at Belmont. Going back to last summer, he came off of a career best 107 Beyer when winning the Grade 3 Amsterdam at Saratoga, he'd earned figures of 99-101-98. Two of those were graded stakes wins and the third (98) was a 4th in the Gr 1 BC Sprint when he dueled through absurd fractions before weakening to fourth. His first start of 2019 came in the Group 1 Golden Shaheen in Dubai where after being away slowly he was 4th, beaten only three lengths and earned a TimeForm figure of 115, which would translate into about a 101 on the Beyer scale. A 99 was his next when third in the 7f Grade 1 Churchill Downs, then he tried a one-turn mile in the Gr 1 Met Mile and earned a 101 when fourth. So, ok, you could argue he hadn't won but the numbers this year.... 101, 99, 101 after last year he posted numbers of 99-101-98 - I don't see that as coming back "not as sharp." On top of everything else, the cut back in distance worked in his favor AND he looked like the controlling speed. Never in doubt, and especially after he was able to back down the opening fractions. EASILY best and I cashed on my ninth win of the day for over thirty dollars.
Missed in three stakes to close out the afternoon and then waited until just after 8 pm for the feature at Los Alamitos, the Grade 2 Great Lady M. Amusing side story - I started recording the TVG broadcast and then set the recorder for the 7pm "Trackside: The Great Lady M" on TVG so I wouldn't have to watch the replay online. When Kim and I took a break from our television viewing so I could see the race, I fast forwarded to post time. But as the horses broke from the gate, the recording ended....apparently they'd fallen behind on their post time. Sigh....so I went online and watched as Marley's Freedom blew by the field at the top of the stretch and easily won! That made me a whopping 10-for-16 on the day, a gigantic 62% (thus the b'day photo at the top!)
Sunday July 7
All of the rain at Monmouth yesterday had soaked the area so we were off the turf. I ran through all the selections and past performances. Five turf races originally had selections for me. In the opener I opted to go with the "Main Track Only" Curious Cal who scored as the favorite. In the third and fifth races I passed. In the 9th, the featured Jersey Girl I stuck with Diamond Play who had the lead at 5/2 odds inside the final fifty yards but was nailed on the wire, second. Then in the 11th I switched to Meade who went off as the second choice and won. So a 2-for-5, 40% day to end the week. :)
That was at 10:35 am and my next race wasn't until the 2nd at Monmouth. As is typical for a Saturday where I'm playing at the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" - that would be our home - I had the TVG live broadcast going as well as my xpressbet video feeds. The second on the Jersey Shore was a Maiden Special event going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. It looked to me like a very talented field where I'll be surprised if at least three of these don't make some noise in stakes events through the summer and fall. But I liked Todd Pletcher's Bellera who had been a good second going the demanding distance of 7f in her GP debut while earning a big 76 Beyer. Pletcher has strong stats on the stretch-out and second time maidens. She made her move on the turn and won for fun. Belmont Park was hosting it's "Stars and Stripes" program on it's Closing Weekend before Saratoga opens this upcoming Thursday. There were five graded stakes on the program so I was playing here, along with the Jersey Shore today. The second at Belmont was a mile and a sixteenth MSW on the turf and I liked Southern Brigade. The field was evenly matched and even as the favorite she went off at a generous 7/2 price. Jockey Luis Saez made his move on the turn and spurted clear then maintained the advantage to the wire for my second win of the day at a nice $9.40 payoff.
The third at Monmouth was my next pick and the announcers on TVG commented that Monmouth was moving up their post times because of an impending storm. I didn't know why, but I could see the race unfolding on my video feed on my laptop. The prohibitive favorite looked to be Golden Brown who'd won the Dan Horn just two weeks ago over some of today's rivals. That might be a worry, but then you noted that of the 52 turf races run by his rivals ONE figure could beat his five career turf numbers. Swept by on the turn under Paco Lopez and as it was called by announcer Frank Mirahmadi, Golden Brown was under a "stranglehold" and won easily. FOUR in a row to start the day, WHOOO HOOOO.
By the time they went to the post for Monmouth's fourth it was raining pretty good. But still, my pick, Luna Azteca won easily as the short priced favorite, and now I've won five in a row. Next up was the first of the stakes races at Delaware, where I was playing because (a) they had multiple stakes events today and (b) I'll be there next Saturday for the Delaware Handicap Day. The first stakes was the Cape Henlopen going a mile and a half on the turf. Canessar was 5/1 in the program and was coming off of eight straight strong efforts (without a win) in graded company. The last time he ran in a listed event, like this, was in this North American debut when arriving from France and he won the Laurel Turf Cup at this distance. Turning for home he was near the back and behind horses, but jockey Fergal Lynch got him in the clear and in a sudden burst he went from the back to the front and was ridden out to victory....SIX IN A ROW for me!
Finally suffered a loss in a maiden event at Belmont before it was time for the next race at Delaware, the Carl Hanford Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Dr. Blarney showed a career record of NINETEEN wins from just twenty-seven starts and he was 9/6-1-0 at this distance and 6/4-1-0 locally. His Beyers did not make him a standout but winners like to win. Right to the front and never looked back at a more than fair price of 2/1 for my seventh win on the day.
I kept trying to make my bet on the fifth at Monmouth but the xpressbet page wouldn't open. Then I saw the announcement, due to the heavy rain and lightning Monmouth had cancelled the remainder of the card. WOW. There goes four future selections/bets for the day. The sixth at Belmont was the start of their graded stakes program, and it was the one-mile Grade 3 Dwyer for three-year-olds. As I noted in my analysis, I wouldn't blame you for going against me because the time I'd bet on Code of Honor last winter at Gulfstream he was no where to be found. Then he won the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth and was a solid third in the Gr 1 Kentucky Derby (moved up to 2nd after the controversial DQ of the unofficial winner Maximum Security). But he just looked ready to roll to me for jockey John Velazquez and Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. While only five off the front turning for home he was in last, then Johnny V. made his move outside of the leaders and when the daylight showed, Honor Code quickly accelerated clear with track announcer Larry Colmus exclaiming, "Oh he's back in a big way!"
I couldn't give up on two-year-old phenom Newspaperofrecord as she ran in the Gr 1 Belmont Oaks, but she backed up badly as the 8/5 favorite. Missed in the Gr 3 Delaware Oaks right after before we got to the 8th at Belmont, the Grade 2 John Nerud....formerly known as the Belmont Sprint Stakes. DRF analyst Mike Beer commented that Promises Fulfilled "has not come back as sharp this year" and he was against him here. I completely disagreed and made 'Promises my BET of the Day at Belmont. Going back to last summer, he came off of a career best 107 Beyer when winning the Grade 3 Amsterdam at Saratoga, he'd earned figures of 99-101-98. Two of those were graded stakes wins and the third (98) was a 4th in the Gr 1 BC Sprint when he dueled through absurd fractions before weakening to fourth. His first start of 2019 came in the Group 1 Golden Shaheen in Dubai where after being away slowly he was 4th, beaten only three lengths and earned a TimeForm figure of 115, which would translate into about a 101 on the Beyer scale. A 99 was his next when third in the 7f Grade 1 Churchill Downs, then he tried a one-turn mile in the Gr 1 Met Mile and earned a 101 when fourth. So, ok, you could argue he hadn't won but the numbers this year.... 101, 99, 101 after last year he posted numbers of 99-101-98 - I don't see that as coming back "not as sharp." On top of everything else, the cut back in distance worked in his favor AND he looked like the controlling speed. Never in doubt, and especially after he was able to back down the opening fractions. EASILY best and I cashed on my ninth win of the day for over thirty dollars.
Missed in three stakes to close out the afternoon and then waited until just after 8 pm for the feature at Los Alamitos, the Grade 2 Great Lady M. Amusing side story - I started recording the TVG broadcast and then set the recorder for the 7pm "Trackside: The Great Lady M" on TVG so I wouldn't have to watch the replay online. When Kim and I took a break from our television viewing so I could see the race, I fast forwarded to post time. But as the horses broke from the gate, the recording ended....apparently they'd fallen behind on their post time. Sigh....so I went online and watched as Marley's Freedom blew by the field at the top of the stretch and easily won! That made me a whopping 10-for-16 on the day, a gigantic 62% (thus the b'day photo at the top!)
Stars & Stripes Day Highlights
Sunday July 7
All of the rain at Monmouth yesterday had soaked the area so we were off the turf. I ran through all the selections and past performances. Five turf races originally had selections for me. In the opener I opted to go with the "Main Track Only" Curious Cal who scored as the favorite. In the third and fifth races I passed. In the 9th, the featured Jersey Girl I stuck with Diamond Play who had the lead at 5/2 odds inside the final fifty yards but was nailed on the wire, second. Then in the 11th I switched to Meade who went off as the second choice and won. So a 2-for-5, 40% day to end the week. :)
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