NJ Festival Extended Weekend

Wednesday August 21 - Sunday August 25

The "weekend" started off with racing on Wednesday night from Woodbine (haven't done that in a while, and next week is Woodbine Millions Night) and continued Thursday from Europe before the usual Friday card from Monmouth.  Then Travers Day from Saratoga highlighted Saturday's card and finally it was New Jersey Breeders' Festival Day on Sunday at Monmouth.  The weekend was also highlighted by the start of the college football season as my Florida Gators took on the Miami Hurricanes in a "Pre-Season Kickoff Classic" from Orlando.  Wasn't the best-played game, but opening games rarely are, but it was exciting with the Mighty Gators winning 24-20.  

Wednesday August 21:  Night Time Racing From Woodbine

First post was at 6:45 pm and I had six selections from the eight races.  When I logged on about 10 pm to watch the replays, I opened the first race and as the final horse loaded in the gate I noticed there was no one in stall #1 - my horse.  Scratched.  Sigh.....  On to the second, a MSW going five and a half furlongs for two-year-olds.  One of the only ones with experience Avie's Samurai had broken in the air then contested a :45 and change pace before weakening.  The experience and early speed should spell the difference.  Drew off with authority as the 3/2 favorite.  In the fifth (no bets in races 3 or 4) my pick faded to 6th at 4/1.  The sixth was the night's feature, the third leg of the "Woodbine Turf Sprint Series" and I liked Reconfigure.  Six of the eight had raced against each other, the perfect situation for a "new shooter."  There were two:  one was a 20/1 outsider who was beaten a combined 39 1/2 lengths in his last three and my pick Reconfigure.  He had rallied to be third against second level allowance rivals first off the claim last out.  Drops today and is lightly raced (6/4-1-1) who's never run poorly.  The pace HE faced in his last three were all much faster than anything anyone else in here has raced.  Sat near the back on the rail through the turn, swung five wide into the lane but was still sixth at the furlong pole.  Then found another gear and swept by in the final 100 yards to win going away as the "best" of the night.

In the seventh Subzero Plus went right to the front in a claiming sprint and easily wired the field.  And in the eighth and finale Dulcibelle followed the strategy employed by Reconfigure....saved ground on the rail to the stretch, swung out four wide and blew by in an instant then drew off by multiple lengths to cap a wonderful 4-for-5 evening of racing!  Whoooo hooooo.

Thursday August 22:  York Race Course Ebor Festival
I had read in online publications that on Wednesday Crystal Ocean was running in the 10 furlong Group 1 Juddmonte International and on Thursday Enable was running in the 12 furlong Group 1 Yorkshire Darley Oaks.  After the two had dueled in a dramatic stretch run a month ago with Enable winning her 12th of thirteen career starts somehow Crystal Ocean was still ranked as the World's #1 race horse.  As much as I didn't agree I thought enough of the ranking to play him Wednesday and he was nailed on the wire.  Made me wonder if Enable would be vulnerable.  She faced only three others, but one of them was the multiple group winner Magical whom she'd had a dramatic stretch duel with at Churchill Downs in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf where the two fillies beat all the best males in the world.  She'd topped Magical earlier in this year also.  My only concern with the short field was the race flow....who would lead, would Enable have a target?  But the day of the race I read that she'd been on the lead previously and I thought world-class jockey Frankie Detorri might just use that strategy.  Indeed, right to the front and a mile and a half later she was widening away from Magical as a "prime time" winner for me.

Friday August 23
An unusually low percentage win day for me at Monmouth as I went 2-for-7, but I hit with the day's "best" in the 2nd with Lasting Legacy and again with a double investment so that for the day it was a minuscule loss.  And I took heart in the fact that for the week I was still 6-for-13, almost 50%.  Truly, you can't expect to win them all.  Friday night was also the opening game for our son Jeff's team in California, the Santa Margarita High Eagles.  They came away with a resounding win which made Daddy and both boys very happy!

Saturday August 24:  Travers Day at Saratoga
For several summers it's been my experience that I do far, far better handicapping at Monmouth than at Saratoga so that's where I do my daily selections.  With today's stakes-laden card - seven graded stakes including six Gr 1 events - I wondered how the day would turn out.  To my surprise it was another low percentage day at Monmouth, but I had a good day at the Spa.  With it being such a big day first post was at 11:35 am.  Today was also the first day of college football so I watched "College Game Day" from 9 am to noon, with there being the initial overlap.  But I was glad that the only game today was the Gators' game which didn't kick off until 7 pm so I could focus on the racing.  In the Saratoga opener, a nw2x allowance on the turf EITHER of the Chad Brown-trained, Klaravich Stable-owned runners would have been odds on.  But as an entry they were tough to go past.  Still, turning for home they were at the back and just beginning to run....at the sixteenth pole and still not in front yet, but Frontier Market had momentum and was up in the final strides as my first winner on the day.

Look closely at jockey Irad Ortiz - hard to tell, but he'd dropped his whip at the furlong marker and I'd thought it odd watching the first slo-mo replay that he was adjusting his goggles in the final yards, but upon further review, he took them off and used them as his whip.  THAT is why he's world class.  No play in the second and missed in the third.  Monmouth's opener, oddly, was the feature race of the day - the Unbridled Essence going a mile and a half on the turf.  My top pick was Sky Full of Stars, but he scratched.  I was going to pass the race but noticed my second choice, Homeland Security was the odds-on favorite in the betting.  Re-read my analysis/comments and re-examined the pp's then went with him.  He collared the leader in mid-stretch and drew off for my second win, first stakes winner of the day.

I was second at 3/5 in the second at Monmouth and then the first of all the graded stakes began at Saratoga.  The fifth was the Grade 1 Forego.  I'd had big wins with Mitole earlier in the spring/summer, but last time out he disappointed.  I thought that race came with excuses and I was hopeful that I'd get a more "fair" price than what I thought he should be which was about 1/5.  Sure enough the crowd let him slip away at 4/5 and he was dominant, allowing me to cash for nearly $30.

I'm off to a good start with three wins from five picks!  But it was to be a long afternoon with the next thirteen selections over a span of nearly four hours only producing one more winner.  AND there were an inordinate amount of second place finishers..... the fourth at Monmouth saw me run second at 3/2 odds; the fifth at Monmouth I was 2nd at 4/5 after leading into the stretch.  And in the ninth I ran second at Monmouth at 5/2 odds.  The Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga I wasn't convinced that any of them were clear-cut choices but I went with an improving Chad Brown runner, 5th at 2/1.  In the Grade 1 Jerkens EVERYONE was excited to see Jorge Navarro's Shancelot who was going to be odds-on and clearly a wire-to-wire winner after earning the best sprint Beyer (121) any three-year-old had earned in the 47 year history of Beyer speed figures.  I thought he WAS a bounce candidate, but even if he digressed to his previous, a 100 BSF he'd win by daylight.  Clear into the lane at 1/5 he got tired and was caught in a blanket finish by four runners.  The winner of the photo ironically had been my pick in a $75K listed event at Laurel when Keith and I were there and the owner was so livid we saw him come storming down the stairs inside to go berate the rider.  And here he wins a $600 Grade 1 at double digit odds.  Wow.  I was ninth in the Gr 2 Ballston Spa on the turf with a Chad Brown runner at 2/1 - his "other" horse won at 7/1 odds, wow-squared.  I missed in two races where I zigged when I should have zagged.  I went back and forth in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign between Midnight Bissou who was unbeaten this season and Elate who had been my Bet of the Weekend when Keith and I were on our Track Trip in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap.  In the end I went with Elate despite the fact she'd lost to 'Midnight twice this season because today's race was at 9 furlongs and 'Midnight was a perfect 9-for-9 at 8 1/2 furlongs - the distance of those two wins over Elate - and 0-for-3 at today's 9f trip.  It was an epic stretch duel with Elate getting the jump, getting caught and then the two going head-up and head-down to the wire.  Soooo close.  Then in Monmouth's 11th I went back and forth between Proper Manners and She's So Shea D.  I'd bet the latter earlier in her career and it would make a great story because the name reminds me of one of my all time favorite ex-students, Christy Shade (who's Facebook "name" is Sea Shadey).  I was third behind 'Shadey.

In the Grade 1 Travers, the highlight of the day I thought it could go any of six or seven ways and my third choice won when I finished fifth at 7/1 odds.  Ironically two of the three next wins to close the day came with horses I originally didn't plan to bet.  In the twelfth at Saratoga it was a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint in second level allowance company.  Looked wide open to me, but I noted that IF the also eligible runner, #13 Dowse's Beach were to draw in I'd like him despite the wide post.  Sure enough, there were four scratches and the Jason Servis runner got in.  All winter he'd been nearly unbeatable with jockey Irad Ortiz up and the two scored here in a tight photo on the wire.

The double-investment returned nearly $35.  The 13th at Saratoga had originally been a "PASS" for me.  But early Saturday morning I was going through various web sites and ran across Jeff Siegle's "Day-Maker" video picks for Saratoga.  His second one was my top choice in the finale at the Spa, a maiden special going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  I liked Chad Brown's filly, Magic Star who'd drawn a $500K sales bid and looked to be any kind with solid works.  Well, Siegel's video pointed out that she'd been working with the top 3yo filly in the country, Dunbar Road and running stride for stride with her.

I decided to triple the bet.  She got bet down to favoritism and as they spun into the lane I thought maybe I'd made a bad decision....

But she found a seam, got outside and blew by under a very confident hand ride.  Mark this one down as a future stakes star!  The triple investment resulted in a payoff of nearly $40.  So in two races I collected over $70 with two bets that originally I had no intention of making.  Gotta love the racing game :)  Post time for that last race in New York was 6:54 pm.  My last bet of the day came at Del Mar where the feature race was the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien.  Last year Catalina Cruiser had become the first thoroughbred ever to win the two-turn Grade 2 San Diego Handicap and come back to win the one-turn, 7 furlong Grade 2 O'Brien.  He'd won the San Diego a month ago in a workman like effort and I thought he'd step up and run huge today.  But when he made his move turning for home he was immediately challenged by the second choice, Giant Expectations who had good numbers, but had not won a race in two years - compared to Catalina Cruiser who sported a 7-for-8 career mark with five graded stakes wins over the last two years.  At about the furlong marker 'Giant got his head in front and I thought it was over, but the champion battled back and won in a gutsy performance.

So for the day, closing with three straight wins, I finished a good 35% (7-for-20).

Sunday August 25:  NJ Thoroughbred Festival Day
Topped the long weekend off with wight selections on the 12-race NJ state-bred card.  The three race winning streak continued from the end of Saturday with not one but FOUR straight wins at Monmouth.  When I was handicapping the card I was hesitant after the first four races because I really try to evaluate each race and each bet independently of the others.  So if I like a horse, like Bramble Bay in the opener enough to play a triple-investment, that SHOULDN'T affect how much I want to play on the next race.  But after passing the second I felt as strongly about the third race play.  Then when I handicapped the fourth, I thought that I'm Listening was an even stronger play.  Am I over-evaluating and playing too much money?  Then when I came to the 10th race I liked Dial Operator enough to go "prime time."  Well if that's the case, I honestly can say I don't like him as much as I'm Listening in the fourth, so I upped that bet.  As the day began I hoped that I wasn't throwing all my money away, but I've learned that it's the long run that counts.  One day to the next I can't worry about how much I'm betting or winning/losing.  I know over the long haul that I'll win consistently.  And so in the first Bramble Bay left the gate as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite and won for fun.  In the third Kodiak Katie was well off the pace into the turn, but came running in the lane.  Caught the leaders inside the furlong marker and edged clear to win by daylight.  Also a short price at 4/5, and I couldn't help but think that I could lose with I'm Listening with my $30 investment and be sitting here 2-for-3 and behind for the day.  But full speed ahead.  The fourth was an entry level allowance going a mile on the turf.  Of the combined seventy-seven Beyers earned by the rest of the field, there was one, count them ONE figure that could top the LAST FIVE earned by my pick, I'm Listening.  The field had a 6-for-77 record on the turf, while 'Listening was 2-for-7 and 1-for-3 at the distance.  And she was the DRF best of the day.  Turning for home Paco Lopez had him in hand and came to the leader at the furlong pole, asked for a spurt of acceleration.  He cleared and was geared down to a bigger than it looked win.

In the fifth, it was the first of the three state-bred stakes, the Charles Hess Handicap.  As I began looking at the runners I thought it was obvious when I got to #3 Golden Brown.  Big Beyers, big wins here vs. state-breds and exiting a strong try at Saratoga.  But then I came to the six horse, Sunny Ridge who also was a strong candidate and he'd won the Gr 3 Salvatore Mile, HERE (for me).  I thought they were pretty evenly matched but I just "felt" like Golden Brown was the better play.  And as I noted in my analysis, maybe I was making too big a deal of it, but Paco Lopez had once ridden Sunny Ridge and while he had not been up recently, the most recent win jockey was at Saratoga, but Lopez stuck with Golden Brown.  Sure enough Golden Brown was closer to the front than Sunny Ridge, moved first and cleared first.  Then Sunny Ridge was flat through the lane.  SCORE!

Just my "luck" that even though I went against the 3/5 favorite, my "upset" pick only paid 7/5.  The last four picks of the day, ALL of them, ran second.  At 4/5, 1/5, 9/5 and 3/5.  Still, who can complain about a 4-for-8 day at the track?  And for the week.....43% wins!!!!

Next week, being Labor Day Weekend there's no racing at Monmouth on Friday, but live racing Saturday, Sunday and Monday.  I leave Tuesday for Europe with my sister so next weekend will be the official end of the Summer Racing Season.  Once I return I'll back off for the Fall Championship Season and begin to "rest and recharge" for the Gulfstream Championship Meet beginning in December.  Are we really talking about that already?  WOW.

NJ Festival Weekend Highlights

Alabama Weekend / Oliver Bday Party

August 16 - 18

It was another highly successful handicapping weekend, highlighted by the birthday celebration for the now 3yo Oliver (our youngest grandson) and a milestone win for me on Sunday.  Here's how the weekend played out from Orlando.

Friday August 16

I had completed handicapping selections and analysis for all three days of the weekend prior to our heading to Orlando Friday morning.  So before driving to O-town I made my bets and then later in the evening I watched the replays.  In the very first race of the day, with my very first bet of the weekend Mission Driven came from last to first to score on the grass at a nice $6.20.  In the hunt with the next four bets but no money which brought us to the ninth and Friday finale.  As I wrote in my analysis, that it seems like nearly every day there's a virtual "single" which runs away at minuscule odds, and this was the one for today.  Somehow the DRF early line made Whyruawesome a 4/1 pick in this Starter Optional Claiming sprint.  But I knew he'd never be even close to even money.  He was exiting a big win over SECOND LEVEL ALLOWANCE foes and today was dropping all the way down to an $8K starter with a huge 96 Beyer in his pocket.  Seriously, 4-1?  Sent out by Jorge Navarro with jockey Angel Suarez (a 32% winner for the barn), he just looked overwhelmingly like the winner.  Added to the appeal that hot-riding Paco Lopez was sitting out the finale so no magical form reversal was in the works.  Dueled for about a quarter of a mile and then opened up under a confident ride to win without taking a deep breath as the "prime time" play of the day.

Saturday August 17:  Alabama Stakes Day / Del Mar Oaks Day
To be fair, full disclosure, today was Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar, their signature race and big day headliner.  But I knew before I even looked at the Form for Del Mar that there was no big play there.  It was a wide open field in a wide-open division where both the heavy hitters from the handicap division on the west coast were sitting it out.  I had handicapped the Monmouth card, the Saratoga card, and Del Mar.  Once the birthday party was over, the guests had left and the birthday boy had headed off to bed I again opened up the laptop and watched the replays track by track.  At Monmouth I missed in the opener but watched Colorado Grandslam easily wire the third going a two-turn mile.  In the fifth I knew, and I mean I KNEW that Jaywalk was going down in flames.  How?  Because I'd never liked her, even after she won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies off a win in the Grade 1 Frizette.  But when she made her 3yo debut at Gulfstream in the Gr 2 Davona Dale as everyone's single, I was on board and she didn't finish in the money.  I knew I'd been right so in the Grade 1 Ashland and Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks I avoided her - she lost both.  Went against her in the Gr 3 Delaware Oaks and she reappeared, looking super under new jockey Joe Bravo.  So here she was as the prohibitive favorite and I decided to back her.  Of course you know that she didn't win.  Had an easy lead but when asked to finish, she couldn't hold off the second choice and was second.  I closed out the Jersey Shore card with wins in the sixth and twelfth - both with triple investments to salvage the day at Monmouth.  At Saratoga I ran 3rd twice and 4th twice before the Smart and Fancy, a five furlong turf sprint.  Morticia was the odds-on choice and coasted on the lead, in hand into the stretch.  Asked to sprint away turning for home she spun her wheels and was run down to finish off the board.  Wow.  We now came to the tenth and featured Grade 1 Alabama for 3yo fillies.  I'd seen and won with Point of Honor at Tampa and in the Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan.  But as I noted in my analysis, she was simply cleverly managed - winning both those against less than overwhelming foes.  Today she faced a real star in Dunbar Road.  Chad Brown had entered this filly into the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks off a debut maiden win.  Despite going two turns for the first time, facing winners for the first time, and giving up a ton of experience WITH a short stretch she rallied to just miss in 2nd.  She couldn't get into the Gr 1 Kentucky Oaks so she took some time off and won an allowance for fun.  I had her on Summit of Speed Day. Dunbar Road had blew by the Gr 2 Mother Goose field while really only running about a furlong of the race at full speed.  She was the real deal.  She was mid-pack to the turn, then Point of Honor made her move five wide.....Dunbar Road swung six wide and accelerated past the field to win going away.  I had listed her as the "BET of the DAY" with a $50 wager, but on Saturday morning I wavered thinking maybe I should scale back.  But then I decided I knew she was as good as the wager and that if the crowd did NOT send her off at even money or less I'd make a nice score.  Well, they let her get away at 8/5 odds so I cashed for nearly $140 and was secured a profitable Saturday at the races!

On to Del Mar.....the third was the Grade 3 Green Flash going five furlongs on the turf and 2x BC Turf Sprint champion Stormy Liberal was looking for his first win of the year.  He has run really well on this course and I thought today was the day but I wasn't going all in.  Good thing, an even third.  The fifth was an interesting MSW on the grass.  Parsimony has multiple STAKES placings but cannot get home in front, currently at 0-for-14.  And most of the field had run against each other previously - just the kind of race I like to avoid.  BUT....Successandsurpass had run fifth against several of these despite bobbling at the start, coming off a long break AND making his first North American start.  Today Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was in town and he took the mount.  Looked blocked and too far out of it coming out of the turn but came flying up the rail, through a narrow opening and JUST up in time to win!  The generous $6.80 price led to nearly $35 more to my bankroll.  The ninth was my "best" of the day in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks.  Chad Brown ALWAYS has his turf runners primed for big efforts and if he ships to So Cal from NY you had better watch out.  I'd had Cambier Parc at Gulfstream this winter on Holy Bull Day.  She'd been outrun in the Gr 3 Edgewood, then won a Grade 3 in NY.  Her most recent was another loss to the suddenly amazingly talented Concrete Rose, but it also was going a mile and a quarter which just might have been outside her reach.  I thought today's nine furlongs trip was ideal, and not coincidentally that was the distance of her last win.  As the field hit the far turn she looked too far back but was picking off horses.  Then she swung wide, oh-so-wide she had to have lost a half dozen lengths, and that's that I thought as I watched the live feed late Saturday.  Then suddenly with a furlong left she found another gear and blew by the field to win going away!  The Gr 1 Pacific Classic was a toss-up and I was nearly positive it would result in a big-priced winner.  I had a small bet on Tenfold at 12/1 and he was a good fourth behind the 9/1 winner.

And so it was a wonderful Saturday at the races, after a great birthday party.  I thought this "Saratoga at Sunset" photo was a great way to end the day!

Sunday August 18
Last week when I was writing up the final numbers for the weekend it occurred to me that I was closing in on a milestone win.  Counted them up and saw that when I got my tenth win of the weekend I'd hit it.  I was nearly certain I'd get it this weekend, but both Friday and Saturday saw me win at a "good" 33%+ but below the last few weeks where I'd scored at better than 40%.  So it came down to Sunday where I had six picks.  I just needed two wins to hit the magical number.  I got the first one in the seventh when Guns of Steel "...embarrassed the competition..." as track announcer Frank Mirahmadi called it.  Thought for sure I'd get it in the next when I'm A Cool Man (would have been appropriate I thought, ha ha ha) at 3/5, but he was just second.  The last race of the day was the Jersey Derby and I had Chad Brown's Standard Deviation.  Jersey Joe Bravo rode him behind the speed and then made a bold move on the turn.  Quickly swept by, circling the embattled leaders and drawing off to WIN!

And with that win I had victory NUMBER 8000 since I began keeping detailed statistics and journaling my adventures. back in 2005-6.  So Sunday night after I'd watched the replays I went back through my stored files and found a photo of me with Kim at Calder one afternoon where we'd gone out for lunch in the clubhouse and to watch a couple races.  I won the race we saw - funny, I remember that afternoon so vividly - and I made this "commemorative collage" .....

An another excellent summer weekend was complete!

Racing Highlights
(Bday Cake Candles Included)

Birthday Party Pics

Arlington Million Weekend

August 9 - 11:  Arlington Million Weekend

I truly couldn't have asked for a more successful Arlington Million weekend from my handicapping selections.  I always look forward to Million weekend as it holds a special spot in my memories AND I seem to always have very good success with my selections.  

It was in the spring of 2011 as I approached my first year of retirement that I made plans to visit Arlington for the second time.  I'd been there in 2007 on a whirlwind trip when Kim had a workshop to attend, so I flew up early in the morning, picked a car and drove to Arlington.  I'd emailed the staff and it was arranged for me to meet my favorite analyst and announcer, Lauren Massarella and John G. Dooley.  After the final race I drove back to the airport, dropped off the car and flew home, getting back around midnight!  Then came the 2011 Millions Day visit.  My original plan had been to be at Saratoga on the first day of school on the first official day of my retirement.  And that expanded into a visit to Arlington on Saturday; flew to Saratoga on Sunday; spent the day there and met Hall of Fame announcer Tom Durkin (above left), and flew home on Tuesday.  And the most recent visit came in 2014 when I met my buddy Keith at Arlington for a Million weekend track adventure.  I had a much better handicapping day on Friday than Saturday, but loved the experience.  I am tentatively planning to be there next summer!

Here's how the 2019 Millions Weekend unfolded......

Friday August 9
The kind of day I was about to have to kick off Million Weekend was foreshadowed when I was distracted and missed the first race of the day, but my top choice ran second :)  I then won the second (which was my "Best" of the day), and immediately thereafter the third.  Passed on the fourth, but my top choice was the winner, and then won the fifth.  A perfect three-for-three day was "interrupted" when my buddy Keith called and while I can't prove it, the pick I had in the 7th didn't even hit the board while I was talking with him.  Hung up and in the eighth I won again.  Coincidence that the ONLY loss for the day came when Keith was "with me?"  Hmmmm, I think not.  Still, I was pretty happy to kick off the big weekend with a 4-for-5 day at Monmouth!

Saturday August 10:  Arlington Million Day

I debated about how to play the day and even considered going to Gulfstream to play live.  But after looking at the entries for Gulfstream I could tell I'd have limited bets and probably would lose at least one or two because of the anticipated afternoon rains.  So in the end I handicapped both Monmouth and Arlington "seriously," and then gave a look at Saratoga, Gulfstream, and Del Mar trying to only pick runners I had a LOT of confidence in.  The result was a selections sheet with twenty-five selections that started at 12:45 and didn't end until 8:30 that night.  The first play of the day came in the Gulfstream opener, scheduled for the turf.  Sure enough, the rains from Friday had soaked the course enough that even before the Saturday storms we were off the turf.  I knew it was wise to avoid driving out there today :)  I ran second in the Monmouth opener after getting clear in the lane, only to be inhaled by my second choice.  Ran fourth in the second on the Shore and then ran fourth in the 2nd at Saratoga.  The third at Monmouth was my BEST of the Day in New Jersey.  Jingo was an older maiden making just the second start of his career.  He'd finished second in his debut behind a right-back winner.  Trainer Patrick McBurney was winning 50% with second time maidens; 40% with hot riding jockey Paco Lopez and the debut Beyer figure Jingo had earned was best on the page.  Scored as MUCH the best and I cashed for $30....whoooo hoooo!

Missed in the fourth at Monmouth and then the racing began at Arlington for me.  The third was a maiden special event on the inner turf going a two-turn mile.  And while I admitted in the analysis that a maiden event for older runners on the turf could produce a "go figure" kind of outcome, it seemed most likely that after the race jockey Florent Geroux and trainer Eddie Kenneally would be posing with the logical favorite Our Bay B Ruth.  She went right to the front and stole the race under a masterful ride, the first of three winning mounts of the day for Geroux.  I had tripled the bet so I cashed for more than $20 on the favorite.  I was disappointed in the loss by 3/2 favorite Kittansett in the Saratoga 6th.  A first time 2yo for Chad Brown, she'd brought $1.4 Million in the sales ring (so I guess I was NOT the most disappointed person in the outcome!).  But it was a great story as her momma was Bsharpsonnata who'd been one of the first "Wall of Fame" photos I'd hung on my den wall and her daddy was Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup champion American Pharoah.  Just never seemed to be ready to run today, and that would be more disappointing to me than the outcome were I the connections.  After the win by 'Baby Ruth I ran my losing skid to six before it was time for the feature at Monmouth, the Incredible Revenge Stakes going five furlongs on the turf.  The logical favorite figured to be Goldwood and she was looking to become the first three-time winner of the meet, all in turf sprints.  For me the key was jockey Jose Ferrer who has just dominated all 5 and 5 1/2 furlong races on both the turf and dirt.  Goldwood had a career resume of six-for-twelve in turf sprints and just looked too good.  It was a battle, but she edged clear late and won.  My triple bet on what I thought was a generous 7/5 price netted me more than $35 into my xpressbet account :)

At Del Mar in the opener Bob Baffert was unveiling the highly regarded first time 2yo Garth who'd been blazing away in the morning works.  Sent off at 1/5 she took the lead into the lane, but was caught inside the final sixteenth and was second.  But not to worry, as I was watching the TVG telecast I saw that in the 7th at Saratoga, another 2yo maiden special, Gozilla was getting pounded.  I paid attention to what the analysts were saying and looked at not only the pp's but the way all the betting was going and this Steve Asmussen colt looked like the real deal.  Just really impressive as he ran them off their feet in a wire-to-wire score!

Now the parade of stakes events was about to begin.  The first of the five added money events was the Bruce D. Memorial for three-year-olds going a one-turn mile on the all-weather synthetic track.  There were oh-so-many angles to why Dabo should win, and as I wrote I thought he'd be at least 7/5 or lower by post time.  Looking down his pp's he'd run into the talented stakes winner Tracksmith, Global Access, Somelikeithotbrown, and A Thread of Blue.  Three of the other four starts were wins and ALL came here at Arlington!  Well worth noting as well that Dabo is the ONLY 3yo in the field with a win at a one-turn mile, a favorite angle of mine.  Trainer Dale Romans had only started three horses here in Chicago to date....and WON WITH THEM ALL, uh oh.  And finally, looking at his workouts, he'd blistered a best-of-77 bullet work in a wicked :47.2.  And the last piece of the puzzle, top Arlington trainer Larry Rivelli had two entered in here to try Dabo, but top Arlington jockey Jose Valdivia - Rivelli's go-to rider - was sticking with Dabo.  He was well back mid-way on the turn then swooped by the run away as much, MUCH the best.

But best of all, somehow the crowd had let Dabo slip away at better than 2/1 on the board.  My triple investment returned nearly FIFTY dollars, how is that possible.  Oh I love Arlington :)  With the scratch of the pick in the opener at Gulfstream I was left with just two bets in Hallandale (again, very thankful that I didn't drive out there to watch two live races).  In the tenth - yes, that would have been a L-O-N-G wait for the first live bet - I thought Passionate Hachi was pretty obvious.  The conditions of this race were, "....for 3yo or 3yo and up which have never won two races....."  I love to find multiple winning sophomores in spots like this.  'Hachi had just beaten $12.5K "beaten" runners under these same conditions and he had the hot riding apprentice Cristian Torres in the irons.  My only concern was that low-level claimers aren't often the most consistent of performers, but he looked too good to pass up.  It was close, but he was the winner and I had my sixth win of the day, and more importantly fourth in the last five bets.

Ran third at Monmouth and then I was very surprised when Chad Brown's filly, Uni - who was working on a five-race winning streak - was off the board in Saratoga's featured Grade 1 Fourstardave while facing the boys.  Even more surprising was that the winner was another filly who just won a stakes at Saratoga, LAST WEEKEND.  Just Stormy set a course record in the win, pretty impressive even if I didn't have her.  The ninth at Arlington was next, and it was my BET of the Weekend.  Chad Brown's Sistercharlie had won the Grade 1 Beverly D last summer (named for the tracks founder's wife) and gone on to win the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Churchill Downs.  She had made her 2019 debut in the Grade 1 Diana on the Saturday when Keith and I were at Delaware Park on our track trip and it wasn't so much that she won, or by how much, but the visual appearance of the win.  She had been under wraps it appeared to me while blowing by a very good field, in a Grade 1, at Saratoga, off an eight month layoff.  If she was "just getting started" that day, how good would she be today?  Brown had three in the field and one of them, Thais, is a confirmed front runner.  While you could envision that one stealing it at a big price, it was much more likely she would set the table for Sistercharlie.  The fractions were just wicked for a mile and three sixteenths:  :22.2, :46.3, and 1:09 and change to the pace call.  Thais was EIGHT in front as they hit the turn, but was starting to tire as they hit the top of the stretch.  Jockey John Velazquez moved Sistercharlie into the clear and she blew by to win with authority.

Not only was she the bet of the day and weekend for me, but it gave Brown an unheard of fifth consecutive win in the Beverly D AND Sistercharlie became the first filly/mare E-V-E-R to win two Beverly D's.  Just amazing.

Missed in the twelfth at Monmouth at 3/5 when third but came right back for my third win of the day on the Jersey Shore in the thirteenth when It's A Lovely Day ran away from the field.  Minutes later it was post time for the twelfth at Gulfstream and my second, and final bet of the day at the local venue.  When I'd watched the pre-race day handicapping program I was taken by the fact that BOTH GP analyst Ron Nicoletti and track announcer Pete Aiello made Finalst their "SINGLE" in the Rainbow Pick Six.  Because not only was this a maiden race, but a maiden race for two-year-olds.  That's a lot of confidence in a second time starter.  But their rationale matched what I'd written.  He'd debuted in a good second against a colt that is highly regarded.  Also, that race had been run at today's extended seven furlong distance.  Noting Finalist was over EIGHT lengths clear of the rest of the field made me believe the race was a strong one.  And it was an even more impressive feat considering he'd broken from the rail, which often compromises young first-time starters.  I thought about it several times during the day and as post time approached I checked the multi-race payoffs and made the move.....I doubled my original double investment to make Finalst a "prime time," "Best of the Day" play at Gulfstream.  He had to duel all the way to the top of the lane and his pace rival would not go away even as Finalst edged in front.  Then here came another challenge on the outside.  They dueled through the lane and at the sixteenth pole Finalst fell a head back, but he found something extra and courageously accelerated back to the front in the shadow of the wire.  Oh yeah baby!

Cashed for over $40 on the even money favorite :)  I ran fifth in the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington when I went with a Euro shipper, and then it was time for the featured Grade 1 Arlington Million.  Back in late January on Pegasus World Cup Day I had picked Bricks and Mortar to win, and he did.  Since then he'd rattled off three straight graded events and was widely considered the best turf horse in the world, and now was getting a lot of talk as a strong candidate for "Horse of the Year."  I'd been so impressed with him in his last two how very easily he'd blown by the field.  I wasn't quite as certain of him winning as Sistercharlie but I was pretty confident.  As I watched the TVG telecast I was just a bit "taken" when in an interview trainer Chad Brown mentioned he'd already had a "long year" and that his other entrant, Robert Bruce - who'd WON the Million last summer - had never been training so well.  Hmmmm.  But TVG analyst Caton Bradar, who I've often thought a lot of as a handicapper, continued to make Bricks and Mortar her "single" in the All-Stakes Pick Five.  I briefly considered cutting back on the bet, but left it the same.  Just like his previous races, Bricks and Mortar sat patiently to the top of the lane, angled out, made a quick burst to the front and then just as easily was motored down as he crossed the wire.  What a remarkable horse!

Bricks and Mortar WINS the Gr 1 Pegasus Turf, Gr 2 Muniz, Gr 1 Turf Classic, and Gr 1 Manhattan

What was remarkable, besides the fact that now had trainer Chad Brown not only won the last five Beverly D's, but he'd won the last two Arlington Millions.  AND for this afternoon he'd swept ALL THREE Grade 1 events.  What a day for that guy.  For the day I'd only had three plays at Del Mar - the aforementioned opener with Garth, who disappointed and now in the sixth where it was a claiming event and I thought Square Peggy could wire the field at a price.  Stopped in mid-stretch.  The last bet was in the featured Grade 2 Best Pal but my pick, Brad Free's BEST of the day scratched.  Sigh.....  That left me with one more bet on the day, the finale at Arlington, the last of the stakes races - the Grade 3 Pucker Up for 3yo fillies on the turf.  I looked over the field and as I remarked,  I wouldn't blame anyone for shopping for a better price but it IS a graded turf event and there IS a Chad Brown runner.  Cafe Americano.  She'd won her first two starts then flattened out last time out in the Belmont Oaks.  I thought you could toss that race because either, (a) the distance was too far, (b) the jockey, who was new that day, didn't handle her right, and/or the winner (c) Concrete Rose was simply too good.  A lot of support for that as 'Rose had come back to win the Saratoga Oaks as TONS the best a week ago Friday as my "Best of the Weekend."  And today, 'Cafe was getting her rider back from her first two starts, Irad Ortiz - who'd won the Million on Bricks and Mortar.  She was near the back as the field hit the turn and then the visual acceleration was breath taking as Ortiz circled the field and blew by to win going away.

Just pause for a minute and consider what this win means......my ELEVENTH on the day from twenty-seven selections - a 40% win average for the day, and that after starting the day two-for-twelve (do the math, that's 9-for-15 to close the day - 60% wins); but also, the win by Cafe Americano gave me FOUR Stakes Wins from Five Stakes Races at Arlington!  Oh how I love Arlington Million Day!  And get this, Chad Brown won ALL FOUR graded stakes on the afternoon at Arlington.  What a day for THAT guy.

Sunday August 11
Well, who could expect to have a "Big Day" after going 4-for-5 on Friday and 11-for-27 on Saturday?  I started the day off with the kind of beginning that had me wondering if maybe, just maybe the amazing winning percentage would continue as I won the first and second race of the day.  My pick scratched in the third and I had passes in the 4th, 5th, 6th before running second in the seventh.  Passed, missed twice and then won with my "best" of the day" Richie's Sister who was everyone's top pick in a turf sprint.  Closed the day down with a third at a generous 5/1 price.

So for the week I was 10-for-22 at Monmouth, that's over 45% and I was 18-for-39 overall, an equally impressive 46%.  It's been a really, REALLY good summer at the races to date.

Million Weekend 2019 Highlights

Million Day Fashion