King George Week

July 26 - 28

What a weekend....what a month....and what a first half to the summer!  I had so been inclined to close the books on the month of July last weekend, but I knew that the full three days of the racing weekend still fell within the month of July so I didn't want to skew the stats.  I was very econxcited to read last week that the champion filly, Enable (who'd been my BET of the Weekend at the Breeders' Cup) was running this weekend.  And at first glance I thought she'd be a mortal lock, but the more I investigated who was running I came to realize there was a very real legitimate threat to end her ten race winning streak.  But before we could get to the races Saturday we had Day 27 of the Monmouth Handicapping Project on Friday.

Friday July 26

On Monmouth's eleven race card I originally had seven selections.  One interesting sidelight was I always look forward to Wednesday or Thursday morning to begin handicapping for the weekend.  But with the entire Sunday card wiped out / cancelled management simply moved it intact, without re-drawing to today.  So no handicapping, just play my selections.  As the morning scratches were announced I noted I'd lost my top pick in the opener.  So no bets until Race 3.  Ironically the runner who'd been my second choice in the opener won at generous 7/2 odds.  Then my top pick in the second won as the prohibitive favorite.  So 2-for-2 heading into my first investment of the weekend.  Paco Lopez was taking over on I'm A Cool Man who was claimed out of a winning effort at this level last time.  Toss in the fact that he had paired Beyers and the likely speed of the race was a last out maiden winner and I thought I had a good shot at victory.  Sure enough, 'Cool Man scored by daylight as the 4/5 favorite.  In the fourth right out of the gate Creedability was wiped out by Royally Cool who walked with the race by nearly a pole.  Paco was on board by horse and he made a courageous rally to nearly get into the money, but was fourth under the wire.  But the incident had not gone unnoticed by the stewards and they took him down.  That elevated me to third, which did my bet little good, but it was the principle of the matter.  The fifth was the featured Spruce Fir Handicap.  It looked to me like the top two program choices would decide the outcome and I noted I wouldn't be surprised with a result either way.  I went with 4-Liz's Cable Girl because it seemed nearly certain she'd get to the front and be the one to run down turning for home on the often speed favoring Jersey Shore strip.  Sure enough, as the field approached the turn for home 'Liz was in front with the challenger beginning to make up ground.  Then my top pick drifted a good four or five paths wide into the lane opening a window of opportunity for the second choice.  But Jose Ferrer on my horse never panicked and hand rode her to a "bigger than it looks" half length victory.  And I'm two-for-three to start the day!

In the 6th, a maiden claiming turf sprint Team Effort finished strongly but couldn't catch my second choice who wired the field.  Passed both the seventh and eighth (neither winner was in my analysis), and in the ninth Dial Operator looked clearly best.  Left the gate at 4/5 under Paco but when he didn't get the front immediately he seemed to be discouraged and faded through the lane.  Passed on the tenth before the final play of the day in a two-turn mile for cheap maiden claiming runners.  There were for sure a ton of issues with War Veteran.: he was plunging from MSW to this cheap level; was stretching out from a 6f sprint; and had been away since May 27.  But the drop in class and long layoff are big win angles for trainer Jason Servis.  The opposition was weak, WEAK on top of that.  He tracked the leader to the far turn, took over and when I say "opened up," I don't know if I've EVER had a horse "open up" like this.  The official final margin of victory was TWENTY-ONE lengths.  Just WOW.  And so I closed out the first day a solid 3-for-6.

Saturday July 27:  King George VI Stakes Day
Truly the highlight of the day, for me, would come in mid-morning when my "BEST BET" was running at Royal Ascot.  Champion 5yo filly/mare Enable was putting her winning streak on the line against the highly regarded Crystal Ocean.  For me, that Enable had won the Arc for the second year in a row, off a single prep and after the connections said she wasn't at her best; and then won the BC Turf becoming the first horse EVER to win both those prestigious events (and beat the best boys in the world) said a lot for her.  Today, unlike her initial start to the season a month ago, was also at her best distance, a mile and a half.  She was a little farther back than I thought she'd be, but as the rounded the turn into the home straight she and Crystal Ocean hooked up with the former on the rail and Enable just outside of him.  There have been few races that can rival this EPIC stretch duel, but Enable is just too talented and in the final fifty yards began to edge clear.  It was truly something to watch live on the big screen.  AND it was even more exciting knowing I'd won with my best of the day before the bulk of the day's racing had begun :)

The afternoon's racing did not start off as I expected.  Noonsight was clear into the lane in the Monmouth opener as the 4/5 favorite, but was nailed in deep stretch, second.  I ran second at a good 3/1 price in the Saratoga opener as well.  Then in the third at Monmouth I had the even money favorite Radiantrithym.  In a virtual replay of the 4th race Friday where my horse was wiped out at the start, I was cut off and forced to check sharply shortly after leaving the gate.  I was not watching the live feeds on xpressbet, though I had them open - without sound - because I was watching the live telecast on TVG.  The Monmouth race finished as I split horses and was a close second on the wire behind a longshot whom the TVG hosts were calling a nice priced winner as they went to commercial break.  The third at Saratoga came up right afterwards and I had Frisky Magician in a turf sprint.  Ran strongly at a fair 5/2 price, but was second best behind a runaway front runner.  But as the threw it back to the studio the one host remarked, "Oh and by the way we had an inquiry and steward's disqualification at Monmouth in their third race."  Wait....what?  I did run second right?  Went back to check the video feed and there I was walking into the winner's circle.  OH HORRAY!  I've got my second winner and instead of losing a double investment, I'm cashing for more than $20 :)  The fifth at Monmouth was a one mile turf race and it was their featured Frisk Me Now Stakes.  Trainer Joe Sharp had only started ONE horse at the New Jersey oval and he'd won, until today when he shipped in Tracksmith.  And I liked that not only did he make the trip from Saratoga, but jockey Adam Beschizza came along for the ride.  In his 2yo season he'd run very well even in graded company.  He'd won his 3yo debut about a month ago in allowance company with a strong rally which set up nicely for today because there looked to be several speed types.  Finally, a long time ago I read a handicapping book by NY analyst Dave Liftin and he'd pointed out that any time a 3yo came back with a Beyer figure in his first or second start of his sophomore year that tops his 2yo top number, he's ready to run big.  Tracksmith had earned a big 86 in that allowance win.  Uh oh.  He was in last in the small five horse field mid-way on the turn then took off.  In a blink of an eye he was in front and edged clear to win the feature, with my triple investment on board.  THREE wins on the day.

The fourth at Saratoga was a MSW for two-year olds and I thought EITHER of the coupled entry owned by Gradview Equine would have been a short-priced favorite today.  Shoplifted was my preference as an $800K purchase with a strong bullet work for Steve Asmussen.  But you couldn't dismiss Soviet who went for Todd Pletcher & John Velazquez and he'd been a $425K purchase.  In the wagering you got two for the price of one.  Good for winning chances, bad for odds.  A speed duel led to a perfect set-up for Shoplifted who blew by in mid-stretch and drew off impressively.

Second at 1/5 in Monmouth's sixth - wow (Jason Servis-Paco Lopez), but then I went on a five-for-six tear.  Monmouth's 8th featured an angle I especially like at this time of the year.

The conditions for this "beaten" claiming event read, "....for 3yo or 3yo and up which have never won two races..."  Here I always look for the multiple winning 3yo.  Nancysaidso was the one and only filly in the field with multiple wins.  The only reason I didn't go in for an added investment was because after being regarded highly enough to run in the FSS Series last summer at 2, she ran in an AOC nw1x, then plummeted to this same $7.5K "beaten" level last time and was second at 3/5.  Big rider upgrade to Paco made her the choice.  Right to the front as the 1/2 chalk, controlled the race into the stretch then appeared to be collared before Paco opened her up to draw off to win.  Right back in Monmouth's ninth when Spring Up was the choice in a claiming event on the turf.  He'd been denied as the 8/5 favorite two weeks ago, but the 9yo had tons of back class.  His three last Beyers would require something near a career effort by his rivals.  Ninth of ten after the opening quarter mile he roared past the field on the turn and drew off to the easiest of wins, nearly half a dozen on the wire under wraps at even money.  After a miss with a Todd Pletcher colt at Saratoga it was near time for the opener at Del Mar.  As I'd mentioned, I'd been watching the TVG broadcast live and for the past thirty minutes the announcers, based in the Del Mar paddock had been talking about the "exciting" 2yo prospect in the opener, Wrecking Crew.  This juvenile son of new freshman sire Sky Kingdom had drawn an $875K bid at the sales ring and I'd been close to putting him on my selection sheet.  But just too many questions about these lightly raced runners.  Then I kept hearing former trainer Simon Bray rave about this guy.  I checked the early double probables and he was a heavy favorite and was taking a ton of money in the WIN pool.   Bray then showed his Early Pick 5 ticket on the screen.  The single in the sequence.....the debuting two-year-old Wrecking Crew.  Because I'd considered him initially, and now all this info he became a LIVE bet.  He broke behind the field but was smoothly glided into contention by top So Cal rider Flavian Prat.  Circled the field and drew off in a visually impressive performance.  NICE.

The eleventh at Monmouth was an entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  Curluck appealed to me in spite of how wide open the race seemed.  The 4yo filly had moved into Jason Servis' barn at GP during the Championship Meet and had faltered in a turf sprint.  She was second off the shelf today (35% for Servis) and got Paco Lopez (47% for Servis).  Too good to ignore.  Sat mid-pack to the turn, launched a 4-wide rally and drew off under a hand ride for my eighth win of the day.  I'm having a very good day!  The second at Del Mar was a MSW for older going a mile and a sixteenth and I went with Moody Jim.  The obvious favorite was Parsimony who had run second twice in stakes and had big numbers.  But he was a 13x - yes thirteen time - maiden.  Not for me.  Moody Jim had run a sharp 4th at Churchill Downs and now found himself in new surroundings with a chance to score.  Came rallying late and up in time at a very generous $9.40.  I wish I'd doubled the bet instead of going for the minimum play.  Still, cashed for nearly $25.

The Grade 1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga saw a horse who'd not won in a year set a track record in 1:07.94, beating my top choice soundly as the 1/2 favorite.  Remember this time.....it's important to a story later!  Missed at 3/5 in the co-feature at Del Mar when Bob Baffert's 3/5 favored Cruel Intentions faded despite dropping out of open company into a state-bred stakes.  Scored for the final time on the day when TVG hostess Cristina Blacker's trainer/husband Dan Blacker sent out Hackberry in a MSW turf route.  As I noted in the analysis, I'm a big Beyer fan.  But I realize those numbers are least reliable in two circumstances:  either maiden races or with lightly raced horses.  This situation had BOTH scenarios.  Still, his 82 and 86 Beyers would require about a fifteen length turn around to be beaten.  Rallied strongly and scored at even money for my TENTH win, from nineteen selections, on the day.  Despite missing in both the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga and Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar it was an excellent day of racing!

Sunday July 28
Towards the end of June I had bet and won with a Jorge Navarro lightly raced 3yo named Shancelot.  He'd won at the Gulfstream Championship Meet in a KEY race (the runner-up came back to run second in the Gr 1 Florida Derby and two others exited to win).  On June 22nd Shancelot was odds on and he coasted home without being asked in a sizzling 1:08 and change.  I was visually impressed.  Shortly thereafter Navarro was quoted that Shancelot was "...the best horse I've ever trained...." and considering his trained multiple graded stakes winner, that's something about a two race 3yo.  So prior to this weekend I read he was running today in Saratoga's featured Grade 2 Amsterdam, a 6 1/2 furlong sprint for sophomores.  I knew no matter what, he would be a LIVE bet - if Navarro says he's the "best I've ever trained," then I don't need any other information!  So this morning, after I printed out the selections for Monmouth I went to the entries to see when was Shancelot's Gr 2 Amsterdam, and his post/odds.  When I did I decided I browse through the entries and see if there was anything else that caught my eye.  Three other non-Monmouth runners caught my eye and I added them to my selection sheet.  In the Monmouth opener Solar went off a 2/1 and stalked the leader into the lane as a first-off-the-claim runner for trainer Kelly Breen with Paco Lopez on board (31% / 41%).  Cleared in mid-stretch but was caught by my second choice.  Passed the second and third races.  Prior to the fourth at Monmouth was the first of the four "out of town" plays.  I'd seen at Gulfstream that Sleeping Giant was 3/5 on the morning line in a claiming turf sprint.  He was the BEST BET for EVERYONE who posts selections online.  He'd beaten three of the six in this field last time out and two that were NOT in the race had come back to win.  Got lots of pace pressure inside which led to a four-wide trip, but when Edgard Zayas asked him he spurted clear and won by daylight.

In Monmouth's fourth Flan was a nice 4/1 price but was fourth behind odds-on winner Sunflower Girl who was my second choice.  The fifth was my BET of the Day at Monmouth.  This was a claiming event going six furlongs and it looked like the top two favorites, which had two of the top riders, would decide it.  Powerfully Built had Jose Ferrer and was a 3x winner in this "beaten" field because he was a 3yo.  He was the likely pace setter and while he could win I didn't like that his three wins had come in a MC $20 then two $7.5K claiming events - today the tag was $20K.  Meanwhile Camgo was going second off the shelf for Jorge Navarro.  He'd been a weakening fourth vs. ALLOWANCE rivals at Parx last time out.  Drops for a first time tag and the 2nd off the layoff angle is a 31% angle for Navarro.  Add in Paco Lopez and it's a done deal - prime time.  The race just as I expected into the lane when Paco sent Camgo up the rail to catch Powerfully Built.  But that one would not go away and they dueled into the final fifty yards.....PHOTO FINISH!

PHOTO FINISH

I was happy to get a "decent" 3/5 price and cash for over $30 on my second win of the day.  Passed on races six and seven then ran 2nd with Border Town in a MSW mile race on the turf.  He was the 8/5 favorite as a first time starter for Chad Brown.  But when the gates opened he stood motionless and spotted the field about eight to ten lengths.  The pace was quick and he accelerated around the turn and looked like he might go right on by to win.  But the winner had the jump on him and more energy for the final 16th and he was second.  Tab him for next time!  I was very surprised to lose BOTH the 9th and tenth when Best Choice went down at even money and Ellyb ran a fading fourth as the 3/5 choice in the featured Just Jenda Stakes.  Before the twelfth Del Mar was about to begin their program.  When I had looked through the entries I opened Del Mar's card for today and in the opener Immediate Impact was the short 7/5 favorite in a MSW for two-year-olds.  I looked for info and found two articles about how this daughter of champion Arrogate had drawn a huge price tag at the auction and had been working lights out for today for Bob Baffert.  Wow does this sound familiar to Saturday's opener!  Then Simon Bray came on TVG with his early Pick 5 and AGAIN his single was in the opener with Immediate Impact.  She sat three deep into the far turn and then effortlessly glided up to take command and ran away with plenty in the tank.  Even more impressive than Wrecking Crew yesterday and immediately the TVG hosts began speculating we'd see her next in the Gr 2 Sorrento and then possibly in the BC Juvenile Fillies this fall because she was just going to get better as the distances get longer.

The next play was at Monmouth.  Muggasmatic was the third runner on the card to go first off the claim for Kelly Breen and have Paco Lopez up.  The first two had lost, but not this guy.  Stalked the leaders in fourth to the far turn, swung into the clear and just BLEW by to win going away under wraps.  Wish I'd had more confidence, but had I been watching all day (we'd gone to the movies) I doubt I would have upped the bet with the first three Breen-Lopez runners losing.  My fourth win today.  The finale was next and I had Exceed The Goal who was 9/5 in the program.  By now I was watching the races live and the TVG guys at Monmouth both said he'd be "tough to beat" and looked "really formidable" today.  He was being hammered in the WIN pool and all the multi-race wagers so I upped the bet.  Pressed the pace to mid-turn, took over without being asked.  Opened up by daylight and then Paco - winning his FIFTH of the day - wrapped him up for the final furlong....still won by multiple lengths.  Now it was time for the Grade 2 Amsterdam and all the talk was about Shancelot.  The common theme seemed to be IF he was as good as advertised and his works seemed to say, he was the winner.  But with only two starts under his belt; facing graded stakes runners; at a new track, and Saratoga at that; it was difficult to take a short price....especially from a wide draw in post twelve.  NONE of that bothered me, I tripled the bet.  Broke sharply and immediately cleared the field as they began their six and a half furlong journey.  The opening quarter was an unbelievable :21.3 - certainly he'll slow it down to save something for the stretch I thought.....as they passed the half mile pole at the top of the turn announcer Larry Colmus called out it was a wicked :43.4, oh my.  But here's the thing - NO ONE was making up ground and he'd yet to be asked.

He clicked off the six furlong time in 1:07.63 - recognize that number?  Yesterday when the six furlong track record was broken with the fastest time in over 150 years it was 1:07.94.  As Shancelot cruised under the finish line the final time was posted in 1:14.01, a NEW TRACK record!  So he technically broke TWO track records in one race.  But the best news is that the announcers were singing his praises saying he had every chance to run the table of the 3yo sprint stakes this summer and would probably be 1/9 at post time....but today I'd gotten 6/5, and you'll never see that again on this guy!

Missed in the final of the four non-Monmouth races when Paradise Woods was fourth as the 8/5 second choice in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar.  For the day I was 6-for-12 and that made my weekend record:

It was a great weekend of racing for sure!

King George Weekend Racing Highlights

Haskell Week

Thursday July 18 - Sunday July 20

It was a really, REALLY interesting weekend of racing - from the first winner of the week through the last.  Here's how it all unfolded......

Thursday July 18
Keith and I had arrived back in Fort Lauderdale on Sunday night at midnight.  I worked Monday and Tuesday on the web page and journal for our Track Trip and my daughter Julie arrived Wednesday for a short visit before heading out for a trip to Portugal.  As we were all together in the living room and Keith turned on the TVG horse racing network.  As we were chatting I thought I heard the announcers talk about the talented runner Hofburg.  I'd seen him break his maiden for Bill Mott last winter at Gulfstream and then in an unusual move, especially for him he entered him right back in the Grade 1 Florida Derby where he ran 2nd and in the Kentucky Derby where he ran 7th.  I had him last summer at Saratoga where he'd won the Curlin Stakes.  I said to Keith, did they say Hofburg is running this week?  He didn't catch it so I looked it up in the future entries.  Sure enough, entered in a non-conditioned allowance event going nine furlongs on Thursday.  I invested for a double bet.  He sat in fourth to the far turn behind Flowers For Lisa - who has a history with me....the short version, missed his maiden win when he'd lost for me in like his sixth try and he'd beaten me on the front end another time.  I knew if Hofburg was right he'd run him down especially at this extended nine furlong trip.  Eased into the clear on the turn, moved to challenge a furlong out and eased by without being asked for a full-out drive.  Had my first win of the day.

Later that afternoon I saw that Saratoga was announcing they would NOT run on Saturday, Haskell Day because they anticipated the weather and heat index to be too hot.  That made me wonder about the Saturday card at Monmouth.  Certainly they wouldn't cancel the card on their biggest day of the year.  I then saw a couple video interviews with Monmouth officials and they assured the camera that they had done all the proper research and had multiple "protocols" in place to deal with possible heat issues.

Friday July 19
I had five selections on the day, where the weather was as hot as it had been throughout the week and was about the temperature/heat index that was anticipated for both Saturday and Sunday on the Jersey Shore.  So as I watched the races, and won two of them, I was confident that the races would be run as scheduled tomorrow, Haskell Day.  I saw online that Sunday at Saratoga they were running the Grade 2 Shuvee Handicap, and THAT race had not been listed for Saturday, but they'd already announced ALL of Saturday's races would be run Sunday.  Since I'd already handicapped the Saturday Saratoga card I went to the entries to see what the deal was.  Sure enough they were there, but NYRA had added a hurdles race as the opener, then the Saturday card was intact - but each race was a race later in the card - and they had added the Shuvee as the finale.  As I handicapped the Sunday card for Monmouth I added in my Saratoga selections and decided to pass on the Shuvee since I didn't see the sense in re-purchasing the Sunday card since the only race I didn't already have was that one.

Saturday July 20:  Haskell Invitational Day
My plan had originally been to drive out to Gulfstream today, especially since Kim was in Pennsylvania and both Keith and Julie had left.  But after looking over the card locally I didn't see anything of interest and then Saratoga was cancelled.  So I didn't see the purpose of driving out there to watch on TV screens without sound when I could stay here at the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" - the house - and watch on a big screen TV with sound.  To get the whole picture of what ensued next you need to know that Kim and I had booked a Holland America Pacific Coast Cruise for September 30 through October 6 and recently her Mom had indicated an interest in joining us.  So as I was awaiting the opener at Monmouth Park I called my travel agent Nancy Nelson.  I muted the sound and was watching the live video feed on TVG as we chatted.  It got to be close to post time, but I was surprised that the horses were not on the track and I kept seeing interviews taking place at Monmouth.  Nancy and I finished our conversation and I rewound the video to discover that NOW Monmouth was concerned about the heat index and had announced they would run the first two races and then make a decision.  My immediate thought was that the crowd, the HUGE crowd on this their signature day would be there on track and what....they were going to send them home and tell them to come back tomorrow or on another day?  The horses went on the track and my pick ran second as the 3/5 choice.  I didn't have a pick in the second and then the announcement came.....

I have to admit I was really surprised at this decision.  And then I watched the TV hosts interview a couple of horsemen, including top North American trainer Todd Pletcher who remarked that in his opinion the weather wasn't any hotter than many days that they'd run during past summers.  This all goes back to being "politically correct" since the number of horses dying out west at Santa Anita so now everyone is all overlly concerned that something happen on their big day of racing.  The next thought I had was how MY day was now going to be a SLOW one without a full day of racing as I'd originally thought; that I was SOOO glad I had not driven to Gulfstream; and then I thought about how I was originally supposed to be at Monmouth today with Jim - man what an experience that would have been; AND Keith and I were so fortunate to have made our trip LAST weekend and not this weekend.  What if we'd planned to either go to the Haskell or Saratoga?  So funny how things work out.  Well, when I'd found out that Saratoga was not running I added picks from Del Mar for today so I still could have multiple selections to play.  I revised my selection sheet to reflect the new post times for Monmouth and awaited the second from Del Mar.  The second at Del Mar was an allowance race for sprinters going 6 1/2 furlongs, which was being used as a bridge to next month's Grade 2 Pat O'Brien.  Bob Baffert entered American Anthem who is already a three-time graded stakes winning sprinter.  After an uncharacteristically poor effort in July 2018 in the Gr 1 Bing Crosby here at Del Mar he'd not resurfaced until Derby Day at Churchill Downs and he was a just miss second as the 6/5 favorite in an allowance.  Then he was 4th as the favorite in the Grade 2 Triple Bend at the end of May at Santa Anita.  Neither of those Beyers reflected his best races so I figured if he ran to his best today - and his sharp works seemed to indicate he was sitting on a big effort - he'd beat these.  It was, as the TVG hosts remarked, a stakes quality field without a stakes purse or name.  Jockey Flavian Prat sat in fourth to the turn then followed the second choice into the lane.  That one seemed to be getting away with a furlong to go and then American Anthem found another gear and blew by to give me my first winner on the day.

Finally the action got underway at Monmouth where the plan was to run the five stakes with less than thirty minutes between races.  Divisidero has always been a favorite of mine but since winning three straight graded events (at big prices) on Derby Day at Churchill Downs he'd consistently run big, without winning (often at big prices).  Today he looked like the legitimate favorite in the Grade 3 Oceanport - or would he come up just short again?  I seriously considered cancelling the bet because what had been a fairly full field that would have a lively pace was now a reduced field of four due to late scratches.  I later learned that the two big defections came because the horses had received their Lasix, anti-bleeding medication, as per usual in the morning but with the postponing of the post time to later and now the connections were concerned their horses would bleed.  This could hamper his chances, but I've seen him race in a pace pressing position so I just hoped he wouldn't run an "oh so close" race without winning again.  But that's what happened as he was about half a head behind the second choice on the wire.  Sigh.....  Less than a half an hour later it was time for my BET of the Weekend in the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher.  Midnight Bissou and Monomoy Girl were the two top 3yo fillies of 2018 with Monomoy Girl eventually wining the Breeders' Cup Distaff as my top pick last November when we were at Churchill Downs.  But she has yet to return to the races while Midnight Bissou began her season in late January by taking the Gr 3 Houston Ladies Classic as the prohibitive choice but was JUST up in time.  She's since followed that with four consecutive graded wins including decisive scores in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and last time out in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont.  She just looked much, MUCH the best here.  Heading into the far turn Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith was saving ground on the rail behind a wall of four fillies turning for home.  This could get dicey I thought, but the rail opened and he asked for her kick.  In a flash she blew by Coach Rocks (the GP Oaks winner from last year) and edged clear without being asked for her very best.  The payoff was minuscule, but as I've often said and written, in cases like this the thrill for me is picking the winner and putting my money down to reflect my confidence.

Next on my list was the co-featured Grade 2 San Diego Handicap from Del Mar.  Heading into last year's Breeders' Cup trainer John Sadler sent out a sensationally talented colt in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile named Catalina Cruiser.  This colt had rattled off four straight wins, the last two in graded company and his Beyers stamped him as a legitimate superstar.  But Sadler was winless from over 30 BC starters and I just wasn't convinced.  I didn't have the winner, but 'Cruiser didn't win either, suffering his first defeat.  One of his wins had come in THIS race last year so we knew he liked Del Mar.  He'd made his 2019 return with a super effort winning the Grade 2 True North on the Belmont Stakes undercard and looked primed for a big effort today.  It was a short field and he should have dominated as the prohibitive favorite.  He won, but he was FAR from his best this afternoon, still, had the winning ticket on my second big bet of the day.

I ran second in three consecutive races before it was time for the featured Grade 1 $1 Million TVG Haskell Invitational.  I'd had Jason Servis' Maximum Security in two straight Optional Claiming wins at Gulfstream this past winter when he was sprinting.  I really didn't think he could carry his speed when based on his big Beyer figures they tried the Grade 1 Florida Derby, but he won.  I again didn't think he was that good and watched as he crossed the wire first in the Kentucky Derby, only to have his number taken down in a controversial disqualification.  He came back a month ago in the TVG Pegasus but he hopped at the break and was nailed on the wire by Todd Pletcher's King For A Day, who was back to challenge today.  Maximum Security drew the widest post, #7 today and I didn't think he'd get an uncontested lead so he'd have to rate off the front runners.  I thought that he would not disappoint today.  But in the lead-up to the race I began to wonder about Bob Baffert's Mucho Gusto who had been really impressive in winning the Grade 3 Affirmed.  And then there's the fact that Baffert is an EIGHT-time winner of the Haskell over the last thirteen years.  In fact I remember him winning it a couple of years ago and my remarking, "How hard is it to win the Haskell when Baffert is in it?"  And IF there was a contested pace and/or Maximum Security got early pressure, then Mucho Gusto would set the ideal trip.  I was unsettled until about ten minutes before post time I re-opened the past performances.......

I'm a big believer in Beyer speed figures and as you can see, the numbers CLEARLY pointed out the "Derby winner."  I felt even more confident when hottie Gabby Gaudet interviewed trainer Jason Servis in the paddock and he said he never liked to say he felt confident, but that he felt "very good" about Maximum Security today.  I decided to up the investment a click.  Jockey Luis Saez sat patiently three-wide as King For A Day dueled on the lead with a longshot runner, then made his move on the turn.  He surged to the front and as the camera switched angles King for a Day checked sharply but I didn't really think anything of it.  Mucho Gusto came to Maximum Security and they dueled until Maximum Security refused to yield and edged clear late.  But within minutes the announcement, "Ladies and Gentlemen the stewards have posted the INQUIRY sign and it involves the unoffical winner, please hold all tickets."  You HAVE to be kidding me.  The investigation was brief and while I'm sure neither Todd Pletcher or John Velazquez was happy with the result the video did NOT show decisively that anyone interfered with or caused the problem and King for a Day was already backing up.  It was the right call and Maximum Security got the big Gr 1 win.

After missing with the last pick at Del Mar I closed the day with a good 4-for-9 record.

Sunday July 21:  Coaching Club of America Day
The first "concern" I had about today's races was when I handicapped the Monmouth card I came up with seven selections from the eleven race card, and I wondered if I had been too "open minded" about my picks.  I really believe one of the reasons I score at such a high percentage at Monmouth over the summer is that I am very picky about only betting when I an sure I have a solid play.  I added in the picks from yesterday's Saratoga card - moved to today - to those picks and my plan for the day was to watch the day-long racing from the two venues.  A little after 11 am I went to Xpressbet to get the scratches for today and Monmouth was listed as "CAN" - could that mean they are cancelled?  After running on Friday and Saturday, suddenly it's "too hot" on Sunday?

I checked on Twitter and found the above.  Really?  But it is NOT too hot to race in New York today?  Just wow......So I went from a full day of racing, again, to just four selections.  As I was waiting for Saratoga to begin I went through the Brisnet entries for several tracks to see if anything jumped out to me.  The only thing that caught my eye was in Gulfstream's tenth race.  I went to the Xpressbet "Daily Picks" and found that the favorite, #6 Ice Tea was coming off of a big effort with a big Beyer figure and if he could stretch out in distance he would dominate this group.  I decided to put him, tentatively, on my selection sheet and check out what the GP analysts had to say prior to the race.  My first pick of the day came in the 3rd at Saratoga, on the turf where I liked a Chad Brown runner.  Scratched.  It just keeps getting better and better, right?  In the 4th it was the Grade 1 Coaching Club of America Oaks with a short field of just four 3yo filles going nine furlongs.  Check out the favorite....

Two things immediately jumped out to me.  First, this must be ONE very talented filly to have run such huge Beyer figures, and jumped right into Gr 1 company at Belmont, AND won convincingly.  But, the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont is a one-turn mile and today not only were we running at Saratoga but we were going two turns and nine furlongs.  That seemed to be the only question but as a daughter of Breeders' Cup champion Ghostzapper the distance should NOT be a problem.  I stuck with my pick.  Right to the front and despite some pressure she opened up turning for home.  Then Javier Castellano had Point of Honor in full gear coming from just off the pace.  She was a 3-for-4 filly who'd won the Suncoast Stakes for me at Tampa and most recently the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes.  She got close but then Guarana opened up and drew off again.

One-for-one!  Post time for this graded stakes had been a little after 2 pm and my next pick wasn't until nearly 4:30 pm.  Several times I was tempted by the comments of the TVG hosts, but I stuck to my original picks.  And as Race 8 approached at the Spa I wondered if maybe I shouldn't back off.  The eighth was a maiden special for juvenile fillies going six furlongs.  I had picked Basin as my top choice from the Steve Asmussen barn.  She had debuted as the even money favorite in a Churchill Downs event.  Tracked the leader, rallied and just missed by a diminishing nose.  The 70 Beyer was strong compared to those with experience.  But what caught my eye was that the winner had come back to win convincingly here on opening weekend in the Grade 3 Sanford.  AND DRF analyst Mike Beer noted (even though he did NOT put Basin on top) that DRF Formulator stats (which allow you to run all kinds of filters) showed that trainer Steve Asmussen was a whopping 9-for-18 with two-year olds making their second start at Saratoga, in MSW dirt sprints.  How narrow is that for checking numbers!  To be fair, the sample size was small, but not so small that it didn't catch my eye.  As the full field hit the turn Basin surged to the front.  The other two top choices made a run, but could never get to him.  And the best part was that even though he'd been the favorite throughout the entire betting window, as they went to post he'd clicked up in value and was no longer the favorite.

The generous $6.00 payoff allowed me to cash for $30 and guarantee a winning day.  Later in the day the thoroughbred magazine, "Bloodhorse" did a feature story on Basin as the first winner from Laim's Map, who won the 2015 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland .... as my BET of the DAY on BC Friday when I was there with Keith.  The article is HERE.    Here's a link to my visit to Keeneland's Breeders' Cup in 2015....click HERE.  I missed on the last two picks from Saratoga, but I went ahead with the play at Gulfstream.  Ice Tea when right to the front and never looked in danger.  Considering how good he apparently looked in the Form somehow he went off at a very fair 3/5 price and I cashed for nearly $20 to close the eventful weekend.

So starting with the Hofburg win on Thursday through the Saratoga races (and GP)  I concluded the extended Haskell Weekend with a score of 21 / 10 - 5 - 0, a winning percentage of 47% - whoooo hooooo!

Haskell Week Highlights

July 4 Extended Weekend

July 4:  Special Holiday Racing

Got an extended week of thoroughbred racing as Monmouth Park had a special holiday card on Thursday this week in honor of America's birthday.  I was a touch below my usual handicapping win percentage BUT I scored with both of my two added money investments.  The first of those two selections came in the featured Rumsom Stakes going a short five furlongs on the main track.  The way the past performances were laid out it didn't look like ANYONE was a typical front runner, so it seemed obvious to me that Paco Lopez would use his inside post to get to the front with Ray'swarrior who was trained by Jason Servis.  When those two partner together they score at an amazing 45% clip on the Jersey Shore.  Sure enough, right to the front and never looked back as the 1-2 favorite.

Right back in the sixth in a nw4L sprint where I wrote that picking Joopster was strictly a "pad your stats" pick because the DRF Best Bet of the day was THE speed from the rail with all the best Beyer figures and trained by the leading trainer on the grounds, Jorge Navarro.  Jose Ferrer was on board the prohibitive favorite who was plunging from an entry level allowance to this conditioned $8K spot.  Never took a deep breath in winning - he's the one pictured in the banner above :)

Saturday July 6:  Belmont Stars & Stripes Day

This Saturday was a great day for handicapping and racing.  Not quite as cool as BEING on track as last weekend was, but the winning came at a big clip.  The photo at left is from my birthday two years ago, but it fits very nicely with this week's racing stories!  The first bet of the day came from Great Britian and Sandown Race Course where the fabulous filly, Enable was making her 2019 debut.  Just to review her story.....in 2017 she won the prestigious Group 1 Arc de Triomphe, the most important race in Europe by beating older males going the classic mile and half distance.  Then last year she did not return to the races until September when she won a synthetic surface prep, then won the Arc for the second year in a row.  She then shipped to the US to run in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf, going a mile and a half, again - off just three weeks rest - also against males.  In the history of the BC no horse had EVER won both the Arc and the BC Turf.  There differing schools of thought on her last fall and one held that her narrow win in the Arc was a sign - as was the late start to the year - that all was not right with the filly; the other school of thought was that if she wasn't 100% (as reported) for the Arc and now in the BC she was making her third start of the year, she'd be tough to beat.  Well, I was in that camp and made her the bet of the weekend - and she scored with my $100 investment on board that sealed a winning weekend of handicapping.  Fast forward to today.  Off this long layoff, since the Breeders' Cup (eight months) she was being asked to go a mile and a quarter, in Group 1 company, again against males and her rival, Magical who she'd bested by about a length at Churchill Downs, but Magical had three races under her belt this season already.  Again, even with the Arc being the publicly stated goal for the year I found it hard to believe she wouldn't be primed for a sharp effort.  She was under a hand ride as she hit the front with about a furlong to go, and as Magical was all out to try and catch her jockey Franki Detorri gave her the "GO" button and she held that one safe to win and provide me with the first score of the day!

That was at 10:35 am and my next race wasn't until the 2nd at Monmouth.  As is typical for a Saturday where I'm playing at the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" - that would be our home - I had the TVG live broadcast going as well as my xpressbet video feeds.  The second on the Jersey Shore was a Maiden Special event going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.  It looked to me like a very talented field where I'll be surprised if at least three of these don't make some noise in stakes events through the summer and fall.  But I liked Todd Pletcher's Bellera who had been a good second going the demanding distance of 7f in her GP debut while earning a big 76 Beyer.  Pletcher has strong stats on the stretch-out and second time maidens.  She made her move on the turn and won for fun.  Belmont Park was hosting it's "Stars and Stripes" program on it's Closing Weekend before Saratoga opens this upcoming Thursday.  There were five graded stakes on the program so I was playing here, along with the Jersey Shore today.  The second at Belmont was a mile and a sixteenth MSW on the turf and I liked Southern Brigade.  The field was evenly matched and even as the favorite she went off at a generous 7/2 price. Jockey Luis Saez made his move on the turn and spurted clear then maintained the advantage to the wire for my second win of the day at a nice $9.40 payoff.

The third at Monmouth was my next pick and the announcers on TVG commented that Monmouth was moving up their post times because of an impending storm.  I didn't know why, but I could see the race unfolding on my video feed on my laptop.  The prohibitive favorite looked to be Golden Brown who'd won the Dan Horn just two weeks ago over some of today's rivals.  That might be a worry, but then you noted that of the 52 turf races run by his rivals ONE figure could beat his five career turf numbers.  Swept by on the turn under Paco Lopez and as it was called by announcer Frank Mirahmadi, Golden Brown was under a "stranglehold" and won easily.  FOUR in a row to start the day, WHOOO HOOOO.

By the time they went to the post for Monmouth's fourth it was raining pretty good.  But still, my pick, Luna Azteca won easily as the short priced favorite, and now I've won five in a row.  Next up was the first of the stakes races at Delaware, where I was playing because (a) they had multiple stakes events today and (b) I'll be there next Saturday for the Delaware Handicap Day.  The first stakes was the Cape Henlopen going a mile and a half on the turf.  Canessar was 5/1 in the program and was coming off of eight straight strong efforts (without a win) in graded company.  The last time he ran in a listed event, like this, was in this North American debut when arriving from France and he won the Laurel Turf Cup at this distance.  Turning for home he was near the back and behind horses, but jockey Fergal Lynch got him in the clear and in a sudden burst he went from the back to the front and was ridden out to victory....SIX IN A ROW for me!

Finally suffered a loss in a maiden event at Belmont before it was time for the next race at Delaware, the Carl Hanford Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.  Dr. Blarney showed a career record of NINETEEN wins from just twenty-seven starts and he was 9/6-1-0 at this distance and 6/4-1-0 locally.  His Beyers did not make him a standout but winners like to win.  Right to the front and never looked back at a more than fair price of 2/1 for my seventh win on the day.

I kept trying to make my bet on the fifth at Monmouth but the xpressbet page wouldn't open.  Then I saw the announcement, due to the heavy rain and lightning Monmouth had cancelled the remainder of the card.  WOW.  There goes four future selections/bets for the day.  The sixth at Belmont was the start of their graded stakes program, and it was the one-mile Grade 3 Dwyer for three-year-olds.  As I noted in my analysis, I wouldn't blame you for going against me because the time I'd bet on Code of Honor last winter at Gulfstream he was no where to be found.  Then he won the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth and was a solid third in the Gr 1 Kentucky Derby (moved up to 2nd after the controversial DQ of the unofficial winner Maximum Security).  But he just looked ready to roll to me for jockey John Velazquez and Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey.  While only five off the front turning for home he was in last, then Johnny V. made his move outside of the leaders and when the daylight showed, Honor Code quickly accelerated clear with track announcer Larry Colmus exclaiming, "Oh he's back in a big way!"

I couldn't give up on two-year-old phenom Newspaperofrecord as she ran in the Gr 1 Belmont Oaks, but she backed up badly as the 8/5 favorite.  Missed in the Gr 3 Delaware Oaks right after before we got to the 8th at Belmont, the Grade 2 John Nerud....formerly known as the Belmont Sprint Stakes.  DRF analyst Mike Beer commented that Promises Fulfilled "has not come back as sharp this year" and he was against him here.  I completely disagreed and made 'Promises my BET of the Day at Belmont.  Going back to last summer, he came off of a career best 107 Beyer when winning the Grade 3 Amsterdam at Saratoga, he'd earned figures of 99-101-98.  Two of those were graded stakes wins and the third (98) was a 4th in the Gr 1 BC Sprint when he dueled through absurd fractions before weakening to fourth.  His first start of 2019 came in the Group 1 Golden Shaheen in Dubai where after being away slowly he was 4th, beaten only three lengths and earned a TimeForm figure of 115, which would translate into about a 101 on the Beyer scale.  A 99 was his next when third in the 7f Grade 1 Churchill Downs, then he tried a one-turn mile in the Gr 1 Met Mile and earned a 101 when fourth.  So, ok, you could argue he hadn't won but the numbers this year.... 101, 99, 101 after last year he posted numbers of 99-101-98 - I don't see that as coming back "not as sharp."  On top of everything else, the cut back in distance worked in his favor AND he looked like the controlling speed.  Never in doubt, and especially after he was able to back down the opening fractions.  EASILY best and I cashed on my ninth win of the day for over thirty dollars.

Missed in three stakes to close out the afternoon and then waited until just after 8 pm for the feature at Los Alamitos, the Grade 2 Great Lady M.  Amusing side story - I started recording the TVG broadcast and then set the recorder for the 7pm "Trackside:  The Great Lady M" on TVG so I wouldn't have to watch the replay online.  When Kim and I took a break from our television viewing so I could see the race, I fast forwarded to post time.  But as the horses broke from the gate, the recording ended....apparently they'd fallen behind on their post time.  Sigh....so I went online and watched as Marley's Freedom blew by the field at the top of the stretch and easily won!  That made me a whopping 10-for-16 on the day, a gigantic 62% (thus the b'day photo at the top!)

Stars & Stripes Day Highlights

Sunday July 7
All of the rain at Monmouth yesterday had soaked the area so we were off the turf.  I ran through all the selections and past performances.  Five turf races originally had selections for me.  In the opener I opted to go with the "Main Track Only" Curious Cal who scored as the favorite.  In the third and fifth races I passed.  In the 9th, the featured Jersey Girl I stuck with Diamond Play who had the lead at 5/2 odds inside the final fifty yards but was nailed on the wire, second.  Then in the 11th I switched to Meade who went off as the second choice and won.  So a 2-for-5, 40% day to end the week.  :)