Friday May 3 - Saturday May 4
It's Derby Weekend! And it was an excellent weekend by handicapping standards :) And considering the weather conditions and the many scratches the impressive win totals and percentage look even better. Here's how it all played out......
Friday May 3: Kentucky Oaks Day
I handicapped just the Churchill Downs card. I considered going to Gulfstream both today and on Derby Day, but with the weather here also being wet according to the forecasts I knew I would be largely just watching on the simulcast screens anyway, so I played from the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" - a.k.a. our family room! There was a lot of rain in Louisville, although it wasn't quite as bad as they had expected. Still it caused a significant change in my betting. I had planned to pass the opener then had picks in all the rest of the races through the Oaks. But my selections in the second, third AND fourth all scratched! The fifth was the Grade 2 Eight Belles for 3yo fillies going seven furlongs and I liked Bob Baffert's Mother Mother. In six starts she'd been a winner twice and was beaten by the highly regarded Chasing Yesterday and three times by multiple Gr 1 winner Bellafina, the favorite for the Oaks. The key to your opinion of her chances went through your opinion of her last when she was a narrowly beaten favorite (photo for the win) in Keeneland's Gr 2 Beaumont at today's distance off the layoff. I thought that was a prep for today and expected a big effort today. But she was 4/1, telling me not many agreed with me, and she was a fading sixth under the wire. The BET of the Weekend was next in the Grade 3 Edgewood going a mile on the turf for 3yo fillies. Chad Brown's unbeaten champion Newspaperofrecord had been dominant in all three starts and even with a "B" effort would be hard to beat. I was surprised that the trainer of the only one getting any other play remarked that he'd been confident of beating her on Breeders' Cup Day but didn't get the best of trips and felt good about today. No way I thought. 'News was 1/5 at post time and she got off to an easy lead, coasting into the stretch in front by two lengths or so and jockey Irad Ortiz looking back for competition. Here came that "other" filly. He asked for run, nothing. The other one blew by to win going away. It was irritating that reading between the lines it seemed obvious that the connections had not cranked her up and were "happy" with the way Newspaperofrecord had run today. Hmmmm. In the sixth, the Grade 2 Alysheba I thought McKenzie would be a runaway winner IF he ran back to any of his races OTHER THAN the lone time he'd run here. And that was the problem. By the figures he would be a clear winner - but what about that terrible effort in the Classic? AND after a blow-out win in the Grade 1 Malibu in December he'd lost twice, very narrowly, as the favorite. Good enough to make a double investment. He was on the rail, and was dueling on the front end into the backstretch and then seemed to fade back to third. But as they spun out of the turn jockey Mike Smith angled him outside and he opened up to win emphatically. After the race Baffert remarked that of all the horses he had running this weekend this was the one he was SURE would win.
I would have liked to have known how confident Baffert was ahead of time (like the thoughts on Newspaperofrecord). I ran third with a minimum play on Blue Prize in the Grade 1 La Troienne. The ninth race was a non-winners of two allowance and Todd Pletcher sent out an lightly raced South American import who was 2-for-3 with a Group 1 win last time before being transferred to Pletcher. New acquisitions almost always run well for him and John Velazquez was up. Was well bet at 7/2 but after showing brief pressing speed he stopped and finished 14th of fourteen. Sigh. In the tenth was my other "sure thing" play with World of Trouble in the Grade 2 Turf Sprint. On or off the turf he'd be really, REALLY hard to beat. He'd been a photo-finish second in the five furlong Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint here, and most recently had won the Grade 1 Carter Handicap going seven furlongs on the main track. In between he won the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint on Pegasus Day and that one came off the turf and was over the sloppy main track. Of the eighty-nine races run by his rivals today showing in the program there were a combined five triple digit Beyer figures. World of Trouble had run FIVE STRAIGHT Beyers of 100 or more. AND with the scratch of the second choice he looked like the lone speed. He was a prohibitive favorite and wired the field EASILY. WHOOOO HOOOO!
I had planned on a $20 bet but with the scratch of the second choice I upped the bet. Smart move Mr. Mark! I had my doubts about Bellafina in the Oaks, but didn't have another option that I could realistically bet. She ran back to her one bad race, which was HERE in the Breeders' Cup and was a never-threatening fifth. The winner was a filly I'd had in the fall when Serengheti Empress wired the Grade 2 Pocohontas here. She wired the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra at the Fair Grounds then in the Grade 2 Fair Grouds Oaks she led for half a mile then was last, beaten FIFTY lengths. With a wide post 13 what were the chances she'd get out in front and stay there? I guess about 13/1 because she wired the field and paid $28! So for the day I finished an "ok" 2-for-7.
Saturday May 4: Kentucky Derby Day
Much like yesterday, where ironically the weather turned out to be a wonderful day by post time of
the Oaks, today promised to finish with a lot of rain and perhaps even storms. The first question I had to answer, especially after making the decision NOT to go to Gulfstream but to play at "Sunrise Simulcast Center" was if I wanted to play strictly at Churchill Downs or play multiple tracks. I've had it work both ways on big racing days where sometimes the day is "made" by my picks at other tracks and other times I say, "If I'd just played the races at the feature track I'd have had a much better day!" But after looking through the entries AND because I was able to handicap starting on Wednesday I decided to play Churchill Downs, Belmont, Woodbine, and Monmouth - where it was their seasonal Open Day card. The big national story at the end of the day was, no surprise, the Derby. But this year not so much because of new star on the racing scene but because of the controversial disqualification of the winner - the first time in 145 years that the horse who finished first under the wire in the Kentucky Derby was DQ'd by the track stewards. More on that below. But for me, that wasn't the story and I found it ironic that it wasn't because I had told everyone who'd listen (and had posted on Facebook) that if you were playing the races today the big race from a handicapping and betting perspective was NOT the Derby - far too wide open to put your financial eggs all in that basket. Instead there were several big wagering opportunities earlier on the card. So for me, that I didn't win the Derby or that there was so much controversy was a minor blip on the radar for MY story of the day at the races. Unlike yesterday I had early bets, but because of the weather in Louisville and in New York I also had several changes. As the horses went to post for the opener at Churchill at 10:30 I was left with twenty-three selections. In the opener I went with Curate who'd run four huge races with mid-90 Beyers, but splitting the four was a sub-par 79 HERE. Which would he run? So went with a minimum play and he was the 3/5 choice. Seventh. WOW. In the second I had Bob Baffert's American Anthem who was dropping out of graded stakes to this non conditioned allowance going a mile. The 6/5 favorite was clear into the stretch but at the 16th pole it became obvious that the layoff since July because he began to shorten stride and finished second at 6/5. I passed both the third and the opener at Belmont. The fourth at Churchill was an entry level allowance going seven furlongs and the big question was about the likely favorite, Hidden Scroll. He'd run an amazing race in his debut on Pegasus Day, earning a 104 Beyer and was on everyone's list for the Derby despite a single start. Trained by conservative Bill Mott, he was immediately talked about as a Derby horse and maybe for the first time in that Hall of Fame trainer's career he had a real chance at "the big one." But a poorly judged ride cost him the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth, and again a poor decision to NOT go to the lead cost him any chance in the Gr 1 Florida Derby. So it was back to the drawing board. A repeat of the first race and he'd win by a pole, but was he a flash in the pan or the real deal. I bet him. He tracked the pace, glided to the front and looked ready to run away, until he didn't and he flattened out to run third. Sigh.....My pik scratched in Belmont's second and in the fifth at Churchill Downs Gold Standard was third as the 6/5 favorite in a MSW on the turf. Starting out 0-for-4 was NOT the way I'd envisioned the day going! The third at Belmont was a claiming event where I liked lightly raced Mo Soul. He was 4-for-6 in California but moved east into a barn that won 39% with new acquisitions. Right to the front and held a clear lead determinedly to the wire for my first win!
The beaten 4/5 favorite in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint had been Marley's Freedom and she figured tough in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff at the same seven furlongs. Her rally fell short yet again and she was second at 4/5 odds. The Belmont card had three graded stakes and the first of which was the Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay going eleven furlongs on the turf. I had bet Santa Monica on the Pegasus undercard and she'd just missed in her seasonal debut. Then she'd won for me in the Grade 3 Orchid on Florida Derby Day. The Chad Brown trainee looked much the best on paper if the fact that she came from off the pace didn't compromise her chances. She made a sweeping move on the expansive far turn of the giant Belmont course and was quickly clear into the lane. Ran steadily to the wire and I had my first graded stakes of the day!
The Grade 2 Distaff Mile at Churchill Downs has traditionally been one of my best races on the Derby card but today it was a "hot mess" of contenders. I liked a price play who was an even 4th at 4/1 odds. Several people I know who play the races seem to struggle playing the synthetic main track at Woodbine and their track is unique that the turf course is on the OUTSIDE of the main track which makes a lot of the turf races one turn AND gives them the longest stretch in North America. But I typically do well there. I had passed the first two races but in the third, a starter-optional claimer I liked Dupes. Like most runners at Woodbine this time of the year, he had not run since they closed last December. But his races in the fall were more than good enough. He got his head in front in the final fifty yards and was just in front at the wire at a nice 7/2 price. I came right back in their fourth race with Dixie's Gamble. One nice thing about Woodbine's synthetic track is that USUALLY turf form translates to the main track. 'Gamble had run five times with three wins and remarkably consistent Beyers in four main track runs and one turf sprint: 76-77-75-75. Last year he came off a similar layoff to start the year with a win going 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf, so today's main track 7f event looked right up his alley. EASY - PEASY pie, much the best at 6/5!
The sixth at Belmont was a second level sprint and Mr. Dougie Fresh looked formidable. Typically trainer Jason Servis is nearly unbeatable in turf sprints, but he's been amazingly successful first all summer and fall at Monmouth with near 40% wins and then at Gulfstream all winter with nearly 50% wins, on both surfaces. Claimed three back he just missed in an allowance then dominated an allowance followed by a sharp second in a stakes. The return to allowance company figured to see him win. He was held confidently to the top of the lane then ran away under snug restraint. Very impressive. Maybe back to stakes next time!
The eighth at Churchill saw me STILL searching for my first win in Louisville. This was the seven furlong, Grade 1 Churchill Downs. I told Kim before hand that if I didn't play the races so regularly I'd have missed this one. When I handicapped the Arkansas Derby card I was SURE that Oaklawn Horse-for-the-Course Whitmore would handle the Grade 3 Count Fleet as the favorite. The only one who looked like a threat was Steve Asmussen's Mitole who'd never been in graded company. Mitole went to the front, Whitmore made his move and then couldn't come close to catching him. He looked like a rising star to me - I was VERY impressed. Despite the step up to Gr 1 company I made him my "prime time" pick. My son Jeff who was going to play some races today called and said, "So you really like Mitole?" I told him yes and why. He pressed the pace instead of dueling on the front and as they hit the far turn rattling off the half mile in a wicked :44 and change AND he was three-wide I was hoping I had not overrated him. Asked to run as they spun out of the turn he burst to the front as the teletimer flashed 1:08 and change for six furlongs - that's a sensational 6f time - and then 1:21 under the wire.....big time, race-horse time. And the best part, he was more than 2/1 at post time so I was cashing for over $60. My phone immediately "quacked" (my text alert sound) - it was Jeff, he'd scored with Mitole as well and I'd gotten him back "in the game" financially!
I love playing the Jersey Shore races at Monmouth and wish that they ran more often than just the weekends, so with it being Opening Day I was eager to play the races there. My four race winning streak snapped when Never Felt Better faded to third at 3/5 in a maiden claiming sprint at Monmouth. But right back to the Jersey Shore in their fourth, a starter-optional claiming event going a mile and seventy yards when Rol Again Question was my pick. His 6-for-19 career resume made him easily the most accomplished in the field and he looked to be the speed of the race. Walked with it at a better than expected 4/5 price (though somehow he was listed at 3/1 in the program).
Next was arguably the highlight of the day. In 2015 the Grade 2 American Turf provided me with my UPSET of the Day when I picked Divisidero off a Gulfstream winter season prep to scored at $19.20. In 2016 he came back in the Grade 1 Turf Classic and scored at $15.40 for my UPSET of the Day. Then in 2017 he won again on Derby Day in the Gr 1 Turf Classic at $9.00. So here we were in the 2019 American Turf, which is restricted to three-year-olds and I thought I had a legitimate price play of the day. I was at Gulfstream on January 19th for Sunshine Millions Day and I was also playing at Tampa Bay Downs. In their 6th it was a maiden special for 3yo on the turf and there was a Chad Brown first-time starter. Why here and not at Gulfstream? He looked great on pedigree and Brown is dynamite with turf runners and maidens. Even from post then I figured he'd be a solid play. What followed was one of THE worst trips I'd ever seen. Here's how I described it in my Gulfstream journal: "... He didn't break with the field, and when he did go he hopped in the air first. Now in stride into the stretch he veered outward and was then caught four or five wide around the turn and down the backside. Still he was within range and the rider moved between horses on the far turn to save some ground. Then he was squeezed and checked hard turning for home. The jockey made a near 90 right turn to get into the clear and then WOW what a kick as he blew by the field to win going away. Mark this one down for next time, he looks to have some talent! ..." I really thought I'd see him next time out in a stakes event. Sure enough, on March 9th, Tampa Bay Derby Day he was entered in the Columbia Stakes going a mile on the turf. My journal write-up from that day: "... the first flash of the odds came up for the Columbia Stakes, Digital Age was the even money favorite. AND he was the top choice in all the multi-race wagers. So much for my "I know something they don't know" overlay play! As they hit the far turn jockey Irad Ortiz began to pick runners off but was caught very wide into the lane. Still, when asked he found that "extra gear" and had dead aim on the leader. It was just a question of was there enough ground for him to get there.......PHOTO FINISH! ..." Just up in time, but again I was very impressed. Now he stepped up to graded company. I knew with the right trip he'd be a legitimate factor and he was a solid 6/1 in the program. Jockey Irad Ortiz had him placed in mid-pack and saving ground to the far turn. I could tell he was just waiting for the right moment to ask for the big kick and then I saw him angle out two off the rail anticipating a seam outside. As they turned for home there was the opening and Digital Age SHOT through. He had multiple lengths to make-up but I knew he was good enough - would the wire get there first? NO! He caught the leaders about 50 yards out and extended the margin past the wire. I had tripled the bet so I knew I would make a nice score. But then when I checked the xpressbet final odds I saw he'd floated up in the final minutes to a huge 8/1 price. He paid $19.20 - the same as Divisidero in 2015 ironically - and I was cashing for nearly $150!
Immediately my phone rang and it was Jeff. "Dad, thank you so much. You have no idea but you may have saved me from a long and bitter divorce by hitting that one!" he chuckled. He'd been down to his last couple of dollars and he'd hit this one as well! Oh you gotta love the races! The eighth at Belmont was a 7 furlong MSW sprint and I liked two horses. I put it down as a "PASS" on my sheet but italicized, bolded it, and put an asterisk beside because in my comments I remarked if EITHER of these two contenders scratched I'd be interested. Sure enough one did and I bet on #8 Invest. He split horses in mid-stretch, got a head in front and then the #5 was FLYING on the outside! PHOTO FINISH. Soooooo close I couldn't tell one way or the other - DEAD HEAT!
I was glad to take the small $2.60 payoff instead of a losing ticket. Was very exciting race and just played into the way my day was going :) The fifth at Monmouth was next, an entry level allowance on the turf and I liked lightly raced Ellyb. She earned a poor 20 Beyer in her dirt debut then leaped up to a 71 with a turf-route MSW score at Tampa. She earned a competitive number when fading first time out against winners and I expected an improvement today. She was hemmed in on the rail turning for home but she found a narrow opening on the rail. Was it too late? Surging......PHOTO FINISH - AGAIN!
So fortunate that I won BOTH of these tight finishes, and in back-to-back races! I thought 3yo Instangrand was a "mortal lock" in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs, my only concern was jockey Javier Castellano. Instangrand had been unbeaten as a 2yo and an early Derby contender. But at 3 trainer Jerry Hollendorfer switched jockeys to Castellano. Upset in the Gr 3 Gotham and then a fading third in the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby. I thought the turn back to a one-turn mile was ideal. Surprised he was even money instead of 2/5 or lower he pressed the pace and faded to dead last, 13th. I don't know how but I place the blame on Castellano! Visionary Ruler was the even money favorite at Monmouth in their 6th and why not. Sent out by leading trainer Jorge Navarro he had jockey Issac Castillo up and at Monmouth over the last two seasons they won at an unbelievable 70%! Oh my. Led to the final 100 yards, and was nailed in the shadow of the wire. Sigh.... the eighth at Woodbine was their feature, the Grade 3 Jacques Cartier. For two years now Pink Lloyd has dominated the sprint division at Woodbine. And while it was true he'd tailed off at the end of the year, on-air analyst had remarked that if you looked closely he had run a career best 106 off the bench last year at this time. He added that anyone who went against Pink Lloyd would be "making a huge mistake that they will pay for" today. Somehow this champion who was 16-for-21 at Woodbine and an amazing 13/12-1-0 at today's six furlong distance. Somehow the crowd STILL let him go off at 2/1. Tracked the leaders to the top of the lane, swung into the clear under top rider Eurico DaSilva and blew by to win. The $6.10 payoff allowed me to cash for more than $45. WOW.
I was surprised when Chad Brown's Robert Bruce lost the Grade 3 Fort Marcy at 3/5, but shook my head when I noted the 18/1 winner was the "other" Chad Brown runner. And I seriously had looked at him for just that reason. EIGHTEEN to one on a Chad Brown turf stakes winner. That never happens. Next was the Monmouth Opening Day feature, the Cliff Hanger Stakes going a mile on the turf. As a 3yo Hawkish had three wins from five trips. Then in his 4yo debut he just missed in a graded stakes at Gulfstream. He owned a sharp 4/3-1-0 record at this distance. I was hopeful fans would bet Chad Brown's Projected who was the 9/5 program favorite. But his overall resume of 22/3-10-2 told me he'd be much more likely to hit the board without winning. The crowd wasn't fooled and made Hawkish the 3/5 favorite. Coming out of the turn he was nearly five back but he found his best stride and with 100 yards to go it was down to Hawkish or Projected. Just as I anticipated, Projected was more than happy to settle for second while Hawkish surged to another win. I had gone "prime time" in the investment so I cashed for nearly $35!
Next was one of my best of the day from Churchill Downs in the Grade 1 Turf Classic. On Pegasus World Cup Day I won the Pegasus Turf with the lightly raced and improving Bricks and Mortar. He was next seen on Louisiana Derby Day when he looked formidable in the Mervin Muniz. But that day the front runner got away with a glacial :51 half mile split and 1:15 three quarters of a mile. Still Bricks and Mortars had enough class to get up in time (in my only bet of the day because we were walking the walls of Dubrovnik in Croatia!). Bricks and Mortar had been referred to as the "best turn horse in North America" by many and I agreed. Sat mid-pack to the far turn and as Kim watched the race with me she said "he seems far back" and I said, "the rider is waiting for a seam." They spun out of the turn and Bricks and Mortar shot through an opening four wide. You could tell he was gobbling up ground with monstrous strides and I was confident the length of the stretch he'd get there in time, and he did. A much more convincing win than the chart will indicate. Collected well over $60!
I was surprised when Todd Pletcher's Prince Lucky didn't show anything at even money in the Grade 3 West Chester but I scored in the Woodbine finale with Notice Me who was a decisive winner at 3/5.
The Kentucky Derby, I thought was wide open. And as they went into the gate I said to Kim, the one horse getting some money that would most surprise me if he wins is Maximum Security. But, I added he fooled me when he got the 9f of the Florida Derby after three sprint wins to start his career, including a debuting win in a maiden $16K claimer. But he went right to the front and then fought off the field to win convincingly. My pick, 2yo champion Game Winner was 6th. But then came an objection by the rider of the runner-up who wasn't ever impeded by the winner. The replay showed that Maximum Security did float out a path or two turning for home, but nearly ALL horses do this on the lead turning for home. War of Will, the #1 horse below, nearly clipped heels but you could make the case he was running up on the heels of the leader. Still, on a Wednesday afternoon in a claiming race this kind of "incident" might get an INQUIRY from the stewards. But not today. Still, the rider of the runner-up had objected - I don't know how he got away with that because he was not impacted. After a long and agonizing 18 minutes, for the first time in the 145 year history of the Derby the winner was disqualified. My buddy Jeff Nelson had $50 across the board on Maximum Security who was DQ'd to 17th. And my son Jeff had a $20 Daily Double that would have paid him over $300. I really disagreed with the call.
I had a bet in the 14th at Churchill but the late rain moved it off the turf to the main track so I passed. So for the day after going 0-for-4 to start I'd gone 14-for-19, amazing! Finished 14-for-23 with a profit of nearly $170 and for the weekend scored with 50% of my picks. What a great weekend! Below the video are fashion pictures from both Oaks and Derby Day....enjoy!
I handicapped just the Churchill Downs card. I considered going to Gulfstream both today and on Derby Day, but with the weather here also being wet according to the forecasts I knew I would be largely just watching on the simulcast screens anyway, so I played from the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" - a.k.a. our family room! There was a lot of rain in Louisville, although it wasn't quite as bad as they had expected. Still it caused a significant change in my betting. I had planned to pass the opener then had picks in all the rest of the races through the Oaks. But my selections in the second, third AND fourth all scratched! The fifth was the Grade 2 Eight Belles for 3yo fillies going seven furlongs and I liked Bob Baffert's Mother Mother. In six starts she'd been a winner twice and was beaten by the highly regarded Chasing Yesterday and three times by multiple Gr 1 winner Bellafina, the favorite for the Oaks. The key to your opinion of her chances went through your opinion of her last when she was a narrowly beaten favorite (photo for the win) in Keeneland's Gr 2 Beaumont at today's distance off the layoff. I thought that was a prep for today and expected a big effort today. But she was 4/1, telling me not many agreed with me, and she was a fading sixth under the wire. The BET of the Weekend was next in the Grade 3 Edgewood going a mile on the turf for 3yo fillies. Chad Brown's unbeaten champion Newspaperofrecord had been dominant in all three starts and even with a "B" effort would be hard to beat. I was surprised that the trainer of the only one getting any other play remarked that he'd been confident of beating her on Breeders' Cup Day but didn't get the best of trips and felt good about today. No way I thought. 'News was 1/5 at post time and she got off to an easy lead, coasting into the stretch in front by two lengths or so and jockey Irad Ortiz looking back for competition. Here came that "other" filly. He asked for run, nothing. The other one blew by to win going away. It was irritating that reading between the lines it seemed obvious that the connections had not cranked her up and were "happy" with the way Newspaperofrecord had run today. Hmmmm. In the sixth, the Grade 2 Alysheba I thought McKenzie would be a runaway winner IF he ran back to any of his races OTHER THAN the lone time he'd run here. And that was the problem. By the figures he would be a clear winner - but what about that terrible effort in the Classic? AND after a blow-out win in the Grade 1 Malibu in December he'd lost twice, very narrowly, as the favorite. Good enough to make a double investment. He was on the rail, and was dueling on the front end into the backstretch and then seemed to fade back to third. But as they spun out of the turn jockey Mike Smith angled him outside and he opened up to win emphatically. After the race Baffert remarked that of all the horses he had running this weekend this was the one he was SURE would win.
I would have liked to have known how confident Baffert was ahead of time (like the thoughts on Newspaperofrecord). I ran third with a minimum play on Blue Prize in the Grade 1 La Troienne. The ninth race was a non-winners of two allowance and Todd Pletcher sent out an lightly raced South American import who was 2-for-3 with a Group 1 win last time before being transferred to Pletcher. New acquisitions almost always run well for him and John Velazquez was up. Was well bet at 7/2 but after showing brief pressing speed he stopped and finished 14th of fourteen. Sigh. In the tenth was my other "sure thing" play with World of Trouble in the Grade 2 Turf Sprint. On or off the turf he'd be really, REALLY hard to beat. He'd been a photo-finish second in the five furlong Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint here, and most recently had won the Grade 1 Carter Handicap going seven furlongs on the main track. In between he won the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint on Pegasus Day and that one came off the turf and was over the sloppy main track. Of the eighty-nine races run by his rivals today showing in the program there were a combined five triple digit Beyer figures. World of Trouble had run FIVE STRAIGHT Beyers of 100 or more. AND with the scratch of the second choice he looked like the lone speed. He was a prohibitive favorite and wired the field EASILY. WHOOOO HOOOO!
I had planned on a $20 bet but with the scratch of the second choice I upped the bet. Smart move Mr. Mark! I had my doubts about Bellafina in the Oaks, but didn't have another option that I could realistically bet. She ran back to her one bad race, which was HERE in the Breeders' Cup and was a never-threatening fifth. The winner was a filly I'd had in the fall when Serengheti Empress wired the Grade 2 Pocohontas here. She wired the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra at the Fair Grounds then in the Grade 2 Fair Grouds Oaks she led for half a mile then was last, beaten FIFTY lengths. With a wide post 13 what were the chances she'd get out in front and stay there? I guess about 13/1 because she wired the field and paid $28! So for the day I finished an "ok" 2-for-7.
Playing the races at "Sunrise Simulcast Center"
Saturday May 4: Kentucky Derby DayMuch like yesterday, where ironically the weather turned out to be a wonderful day by post time of
the Oaks, today promised to finish with a lot of rain and perhaps even storms. The first question I had to answer, especially after making the decision NOT to go to Gulfstream but to play at "Sunrise Simulcast Center" was if I wanted to play strictly at Churchill Downs or play multiple tracks. I've had it work both ways on big racing days where sometimes the day is "made" by my picks at other tracks and other times I say, "If I'd just played the races at the feature track I'd have had a much better day!" But after looking through the entries AND because I was able to handicap starting on Wednesday I decided to play Churchill Downs, Belmont, Woodbine, and Monmouth - where it was their seasonal Open Day card. The big national story at the end of the day was, no surprise, the Derby. But this year not so much because of new star on the racing scene but because of the controversial disqualification of the winner - the first time in 145 years that the horse who finished first under the wire in the Kentucky Derby was DQ'd by the track stewards. More on that below. But for me, that wasn't the story and I found it ironic that it wasn't because I had told everyone who'd listen (and had posted on Facebook) that if you were playing the races today the big race from a handicapping and betting perspective was NOT the Derby - far too wide open to put your financial eggs all in that basket. Instead there were several big wagering opportunities earlier on the card. So for me, that I didn't win the Derby or that there was so much controversy was a minor blip on the radar for MY story of the day at the races. Unlike yesterday I had early bets, but because of the weather in Louisville and in New York I also had several changes. As the horses went to post for the opener at Churchill at 10:30 I was left with twenty-three selections. In the opener I went with Curate who'd run four huge races with mid-90 Beyers, but splitting the four was a sub-par 79 HERE. Which would he run? So went with a minimum play and he was the 3/5 choice. Seventh. WOW. In the second I had Bob Baffert's American Anthem who was dropping out of graded stakes to this non conditioned allowance going a mile. The 6/5 favorite was clear into the stretch but at the 16th pole it became obvious that the layoff since July because he began to shorten stride and finished second at 6/5. I passed both the third and the opener at Belmont. The fourth at Churchill was an entry level allowance going seven furlongs and the big question was about the likely favorite, Hidden Scroll. He'd run an amazing race in his debut on Pegasus Day, earning a 104 Beyer and was on everyone's list for the Derby despite a single start. Trained by conservative Bill Mott, he was immediately talked about as a Derby horse and maybe for the first time in that Hall of Fame trainer's career he had a real chance at "the big one." But a poorly judged ride cost him the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth, and again a poor decision to NOT go to the lead cost him any chance in the Gr 1 Florida Derby. So it was back to the drawing board. A repeat of the first race and he'd win by a pole, but was he a flash in the pan or the real deal. I bet him. He tracked the pace, glided to the front and looked ready to run away, until he didn't and he flattened out to run third. Sigh.....My pik scratched in Belmont's second and in the fifth at Churchill Downs Gold Standard was third as the 6/5 favorite in a MSW on the turf. Starting out 0-for-4 was NOT the way I'd envisioned the day going! The third at Belmont was a claiming event where I liked lightly raced Mo Soul. He was 4-for-6 in California but moved east into a barn that won 39% with new acquisitions. Right to the front and held a clear lead determinedly to the wire for my first win!
The beaten 4/5 favorite in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint had been Marley's Freedom and she figured tough in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff at the same seven furlongs. Her rally fell short yet again and she was second at 4/5 odds. The Belmont card had three graded stakes and the first of which was the Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay going eleven furlongs on the turf. I had bet Santa Monica on the Pegasus undercard and she'd just missed in her seasonal debut. Then she'd won for me in the Grade 3 Orchid on Florida Derby Day. The Chad Brown trainee looked much the best on paper if the fact that she came from off the pace didn't compromise her chances. She made a sweeping move on the expansive far turn of the giant Belmont course and was quickly clear into the lane. Ran steadily to the wire and I had my first graded stakes of the day!
The Grade 2 Distaff Mile at Churchill Downs has traditionally been one of my best races on the Derby card but today it was a "hot mess" of contenders. I liked a price play who was an even 4th at 4/1 odds. Several people I know who play the races seem to struggle playing the synthetic main track at Woodbine and their track is unique that the turf course is on the OUTSIDE of the main track which makes a lot of the turf races one turn AND gives them the longest stretch in North America. But I typically do well there. I had passed the first two races but in the third, a starter-optional claimer I liked Dupes. Like most runners at Woodbine this time of the year, he had not run since they closed last December. But his races in the fall were more than good enough. He got his head in front in the final fifty yards and was just in front at the wire at a nice 7/2 price. I came right back in their fourth race with Dixie's Gamble. One nice thing about Woodbine's synthetic track is that USUALLY turf form translates to the main track. 'Gamble had run five times with three wins and remarkably consistent Beyers in four main track runs and one turf sprint: 76-77-75-75. Last year he came off a similar layoff to start the year with a win going 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf, so today's main track 7f event looked right up his alley. EASY - PEASY pie, much the best at 6/5!
The sixth at Belmont was a second level sprint and Mr. Dougie Fresh looked formidable. Typically trainer Jason Servis is nearly unbeatable in turf sprints, but he's been amazingly successful first all summer and fall at Monmouth with near 40% wins and then at Gulfstream all winter with nearly 50% wins, on both surfaces. Claimed three back he just missed in an allowance then dominated an allowance followed by a sharp second in a stakes. The return to allowance company figured to see him win. He was held confidently to the top of the lane then ran away under snug restraint. Very impressive. Maybe back to stakes next time!
The eighth at Churchill saw me STILL searching for my first win in Louisville. This was the seven furlong, Grade 1 Churchill Downs. I told Kim before hand that if I didn't play the races so regularly I'd have missed this one. When I handicapped the Arkansas Derby card I was SURE that Oaklawn Horse-for-the-Course Whitmore would handle the Grade 3 Count Fleet as the favorite. The only one who looked like a threat was Steve Asmussen's Mitole who'd never been in graded company. Mitole went to the front, Whitmore made his move and then couldn't come close to catching him. He looked like a rising star to me - I was VERY impressed. Despite the step up to Gr 1 company I made him my "prime time" pick. My son Jeff who was going to play some races today called and said, "So you really like Mitole?" I told him yes and why. He pressed the pace instead of dueling on the front and as they hit the far turn rattling off the half mile in a wicked :44 and change AND he was three-wide I was hoping I had not overrated him. Asked to run as they spun out of the turn he burst to the front as the teletimer flashed 1:08 and change for six furlongs - that's a sensational 6f time - and then 1:21 under the wire.....big time, race-horse time. And the best part, he was more than 2/1 at post time so I was cashing for over $60. My phone immediately "quacked" (my text alert sound) - it was Jeff, he'd scored with Mitole as well and I'd gotten him back "in the game" financially!
I love playing the Jersey Shore races at Monmouth and wish that they ran more often than just the weekends, so with it being Opening Day I was eager to play the races there. My four race winning streak snapped when Never Felt Better faded to third at 3/5 in a maiden claiming sprint at Monmouth. But right back to the Jersey Shore in their fourth, a starter-optional claiming event going a mile and seventy yards when Rol Again Question was my pick. His 6-for-19 career resume made him easily the most accomplished in the field and he looked to be the speed of the race. Walked with it at a better than expected 4/5 price (though somehow he was listed at 3/1 in the program).
Next was arguably the highlight of the day. In 2015 the Grade 2 American Turf provided me with my UPSET of the Day when I picked Divisidero off a Gulfstream winter season prep to scored at $19.20. In 2016 he came back in the Grade 1 Turf Classic and scored at $15.40 for my UPSET of the Day. Then in 2017 he won again on Derby Day in the Gr 1 Turf Classic at $9.00. So here we were in the 2019 American Turf, which is restricted to three-year-olds and I thought I had a legitimate price play of the day. I was at Gulfstream on January 19th for Sunshine Millions Day and I was also playing at Tampa Bay Downs. In their 6th it was a maiden special for 3yo on the turf and there was a Chad Brown first-time starter. Why here and not at Gulfstream? He looked great on pedigree and Brown is dynamite with turf runners and maidens. Even from post then I figured he'd be a solid play. What followed was one of THE worst trips I'd ever seen. Here's how I described it in my Gulfstream journal: "... He didn't break with the field, and when he did go he hopped in the air first. Now in stride into the stretch he veered outward and was then caught four or five wide around the turn and down the backside. Still he was within range and the rider moved between horses on the far turn to save some ground. Then he was squeezed and checked hard turning for home. The jockey made a near 90 right turn to get into the clear and then WOW what a kick as he blew by the field to win going away. Mark this one down for next time, he looks to have some talent! ..." I really thought I'd see him next time out in a stakes event. Sure enough, on March 9th, Tampa Bay Derby Day he was entered in the Columbia Stakes going a mile on the turf. My journal write-up from that day: "... the first flash of the odds came up for the Columbia Stakes, Digital Age was the even money favorite. AND he was the top choice in all the multi-race wagers. So much for my "I know something they don't know" overlay play! As they hit the far turn jockey Irad Ortiz began to pick runners off but was caught very wide into the lane. Still, when asked he found that "extra gear" and had dead aim on the leader. It was just a question of was there enough ground for him to get there.......PHOTO FINISH! ..." Just up in time, but again I was very impressed. Now he stepped up to graded company. I knew with the right trip he'd be a legitimate factor and he was a solid 6/1 in the program. Jockey Irad Ortiz had him placed in mid-pack and saving ground to the far turn. I could tell he was just waiting for the right moment to ask for the big kick and then I saw him angle out two off the rail anticipating a seam outside. As they turned for home there was the opening and Digital Age SHOT through. He had multiple lengths to make-up but I knew he was good enough - would the wire get there first? NO! He caught the leaders about 50 yards out and extended the margin past the wire. I had tripled the bet so I knew I would make a nice score. But then when I checked the xpressbet final odds I saw he'd floated up in the final minutes to a huge 8/1 price. He paid $19.20 - the same as Divisidero in 2015 ironically - and I was cashing for nearly $150!
Immediately my phone rang and it was Jeff. "Dad, thank you so much. You have no idea but you may have saved me from a long and bitter divorce by hitting that one!" he chuckled. He'd been down to his last couple of dollars and he'd hit this one as well! Oh you gotta love the races! The eighth at Belmont was a 7 furlong MSW sprint and I liked two horses. I put it down as a "PASS" on my sheet but italicized, bolded it, and put an asterisk beside because in my comments I remarked if EITHER of these two contenders scratched I'd be interested. Sure enough one did and I bet on #8 Invest. He split horses in mid-stretch, got a head in front and then the #5 was FLYING on the outside! PHOTO FINISH. Soooooo close I couldn't tell one way or the other - DEAD HEAT!
I was glad to take the small $2.60 payoff instead of a losing ticket. Was very exciting race and just played into the way my day was going :) The fifth at Monmouth was next, an entry level allowance on the turf and I liked lightly raced Ellyb. She earned a poor 20 Beyer in her dirt debut then leaped up to a 71 with a turf-route MSW score at Tampa. She earned a competitive number when fading first time out against winners and I expected an improvement today. She was hemmed in on the rail turning for home but she found a narrow opening on the rail. Was it too late? Surging......PHOTO FINISH - AGAIN!
So fortunate that I won BOTH of these tight finishes, and in back-to-back races! I thought 3yo Instangrand was a "mortal lock" in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs, my only concern was jockey Javier Castellano. Instangrand had been unbeaten as a 2yo and an early Derby contender. But at 3 trainer Jerry Hollendorfer switched jockeys to Castellano. Upset in the Gr 3 Gotham and then a fading third in the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby. I thought the turn back to a one-turn mile was ideal. Surprised he was even money instead of 2/5 or lower he pressed the pace and faded to dead last, 13th. I don't know how but I place the blame on Castellano! Visionary Ruler was the even money favorite at Monmouth in their 6th and why not. Sent out by leading trainer Jorge Navarro he had jockey Issac Castillo up and at Monmouth over the last two seasons they won at an unbelievable 70%! Oh my. Led to the final 100 yards, and was nailed in the shadow of the wire. Sigh.... the eighth at Woodbine was their feature, the Grade 3 Jacques Cartier. For two years now Pink Lloyd has dominated the sprint division at Woodbine. And while it was true he'd tailed off at the end of the year, on-air analyst had remarked that if you looked closely he had run a career best 106 off the bench last year at this time. He added that anyone who went against Pink Lloyd would be "making a huge mistake that they will pay for" today. Somehow this champion who was 16-for-21 at Woodbine and an amazing 13/12-1-0 at today's six furlong distance. Somehow the crowd STILL let him go off at 2/1. Tracked the leaders to the top of the lane, swung into the clear under top rider Eurico DaSilva and blew by to win. The $6.10 payoff allowed me to cash for more than $45. WOW.
I was surprised when Chad Brown's Robert Bruce lost the Grade 3 Fort Marcy at 3/5, but shook my head when I noted the 18/1 winner was the "other" Chad Brown runner. And I seriously had looked at him for just that reason. EIGHTEEN to one on a Chad Brown turf stakes winner. That never happens. Next was the Monmouth Opening Day feature, the Cliff Hanger Stakes going a mile on the turf. As a 3yo Hawkish had three wins from five trips. Then in his 4yo debut he just missed in a graded stakes at Gulfstream. He owned a sharp 4/3-1-0 record at this distance. I was hopeful fans would bet Chad Brown's Projected who was the 9/5 program favorite. But his overall resume of 22/3-10-2 told me he'd be much more likely to hit the board without winning. The crowd wasn't fooled and made Hawkish the 3/5 favorite. Coming out of the turn he was nearly five back but he found his best stride and with 100 yards to go it was down to Hawkish or Projected. Just as I anticipated, Projected was more than happy to settle for second while Hawkish surged to another win. I had gone "prime time" in the investment so I cashed for nearly $35!
Next was one of my best of the day from Churchill Downs in the Grade 1 Turf Classic. On Pegasus World Cup Day I won the Pegasus Turf with the lightly raced and improving Bricks and Mortar. He was next seen on Louisiana Derby Day when he looked formidable in the Mervin Muniz. But that day the front runner got away with a glacial :51 half mile split and 1:15 three quarters of a mile. Still Bricks and Mortars had enough class to get up in time (in my only bet of the day because we were walking the walls of Dubrovnik in Croatia!). Bricks and Mortar had been referred to as the "best turn horse in North America" by many and I agreed. Sat mid-pack to the far turn and as Kim watched the race with me she said "he seems far back" and I said, "the rider is waiting for a seam." They spun out of the turn and Bricks and Mortar shot through an opening four wide. You could tell he was gobbling up ground with monstrous strides and I was confident the length of the stretch he'd get there in time, and he did. A much more convincing win than the chart will indicate. Collected well over $60!
I was surprised when Todd Pletcher's Prince Lucky didn't show anything at even money in the Grade 3 West Chester but I scored in the Woodbine finale with Notice Me who was a decisive winner at 3/5.
The Kentucky Derby, I thought was wide open. And as they went into the gate I said to Kim, the one horse getting some money that would most surprise me if he wins is Maximum Security. But, I added he fooled me when he got the 9f of the Florida Derby after three sprint wins to start his career, including a debuting win in a maiden $16K claimer. But he went right to the front and then fought off the field to win convincingly. My pick, 2yo champion Game Winner was 6th. But then came an objection by the rider of the runner-up who wasn't ever impeded by the winner. The replay showed that Maximum Security did float out a path or two turning for home, but nearly ALL horses do this on the lead turning for home. War of Will, the #1 horse below, nearly clipped heels but you could make the case he was running up on the heels of the leader. Still, on a Wednesday afternoon in a claiming race this kind of "incident" might get an INQUIRY from the stewards. But not today. Still, the rider of the runner-up had objected - I don't know how he got away with that because he was not impacted. After a long and agonizing 18 minutes, for the first time in the 145 year history of the Derby the winner was disqualified. My buddy Jeff Nelson had $50 across the board on Maximum Security who was DQ'd to 17th. And my son Jeff had a $20 Daily Double that would have paid him over $300. I really disagreed with the call.
The Derby "incident" at the top of the stretch
I had a bet in the 14th at Churchill but the late rain moved it off the turf to the main track so I passed. So for the day after going 0-for-4 to start I'd gone 14-for-19, amazing! Finished 14-for-23 with a profit of nearly $170 and for the weekend scored with 50% of my picks. What a great weekend! Below the video are fashion pictures from both Oaks and Derby Day....enjoy!
Kentucky Derby Weekend Highlights
Oaks Day Fashion
Derby Day Fashion
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