Whitney / Birthday Weekend

August 2 - 4

I truly could not have asked for a better weekend.  Just the birthday part of the weekend would have made the weekend an excellent weekend regardless of the racing results.  But the way the racing turned out it was just THE best of weekends.  The "festivities" kicked off on Tuesday when my Mom, sister, and niece all arrived from Ohio.  We decided to make Thursday, August 1st (my actual birthday) the annual visit to Jaxson's for an "ice cream lunch" because the portions are so huge.  Then on Friday our youngest son Brad made the drive from Orlando to So Fla with his wife Lauren and our grandson Oliver.  That's a LONG haul for even adults, much a little man that's just almost three.  But it was the best birthday present I received.  Here's how the weekend unfolded on the racing scene, followed by some birthday photos....

Friday August 2nd

I had six selections from Monmouth and I decided to play the Saratoga Oaks, the second of the Turf Tiara that NYRA had put together.  The last of the races, the featured Saratoga event was going off just as the kids arrived.  I missed in the opener at Monmouth but came back to score in the third when Potra Liza was a triple investment.  After passing the fourth I scored in both the fifth and sixth with Colorado Grandslam and Nay Lady Nay.  Missed in the final two Jersey Shore selections before the Saratoga Oaks.  On Breeders' Cup weekend, Chad Brown's Newspaperofrecord had been a scintilating winner of the BC Juvenile Filly Turf, beating Concrete Rose who it was said later had (a) come back too quickly and (b) was on the boggy inside part of the course.  When the two met again in the Grade 3 Edgewood on Ky Oaks Day it was Concrete Rose who upset the heavily favored 'Newspaper.  They met again in the Belmont Oaks and I gave 'Newspaper one more shot, but she was blown away by Concrete Rose again.  Ok, I get it, she's the "NOW" filly.  So today she was a prohibitive favorite to win the Saratoga Friday feature.  She didn't need any help but in looking at the race she appeared to also be the lone speed.  Seeing that I doubled my original $15 bet.  She strolled on the front end and walked with it handily to help me close the day out with a sharp 4-for-7 handicapping record.

Saturday August 3rd:  Whitney Saturday

It was an emotional day in Saratoga Springs because just recently the "Queen of Saratoga," Mary Lou Whitney had passed away in her 90s.  She'd still been very active at Saratoga and they left her seat empty with a program and some roses on the shelf.  For today I'd handicapped the entire Saratoga card and the Monmouth card.  Good thing, because for the entire day at Monmouth I had only four races selections.  I was fourth (behind my second choice) in the opener.  In the second Life on the Edge was easily best for me with a double investment; then was clear in deep stretch in the fourth before being run down late to be second.  Then the seventh came up and it was my BEST of the Day on the Jersey Shore.  Krakov was another example that you don't need to be playing a Grade 1 event to have your "best bet" as this was a mid-card maiden claimer for older sprinters going 5 1/2 furlongs.  But this lightly raced 5yo had debuted with a sharp second behind a horse named Powerfully Built who came right back to win two straight claimers and then gave my last Sunday finishing in a photo with my BET of the Day that day.  With expected second race improvement and with Paco Lopez up he figured tough.  He had to battle to the 16th pole, but edged clear late.

While I was watching the live TVG broadcast after the Krakov race I saw that at Gulfstream there was a prohibitive favorite.  The analysts began talking about the upcoming fifth from Hallandale and it was the first leg of the Florida Sire Stakes, the Dr. Fager.  The favorite, Chance It had run the second fastest Beyer figure of a 2yo in North America this year in his runaway maiden win and just looked really tough, even with some regression.  He made the winning move on the far turn and at the furlong marker began to gradually widen the margin of victory.

The race that WOULD have made the day was the Lure Stakes from Saratoga.  I had Sacred Life from the Chad Brown barn and he was FLYING late to just miss at 7/2 odds.  Would have cashed for $45 and had a huge day, sigh....  But the national feature was the Grade 1 Whitney and while the field appeared very evenly matched I thought Bob Baffert's McKenzie looked clearly best.  And that was without factoring in the horrible trip he'd had in the Grade 1 Met Mile last time.  As the field turned for home there were FIVE across the track with the chance to win.  But it was McKenzie, under a hand ride from Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith that strode out convincingly for the win.

Missed in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar when Vasilika had her four race winning streak snapped, and that led me to finish 4-for-12 on the day....and ok day.  But that night the highlight was the birthday cake celebration and my grandson helping blow out the candles!

Sunday August 4
We spent the morning with the family and Oliver who was having the time of his life going in and out of all the doors in the house.....kids, go figure!  But they had to leave shortly after lunch, sad.  I got online and watched the opener on replay from Monmouth.  I had Desperado who got hammered at the windows and won for fun.  The fourth was live shortly thereafter and I ran third at 3/1.  The feature at Woodbine today was the Shepperton Stakes featuring former Horse of the Year Pink Lloyd.  He rolled up on the turn and drew off for his career 20th win and 17th stakes victory.  That's impressive!

I missed in the fifth at Monmouth at even money when fourth.  Then in the sixth Noble Lion was a short priced favorite.  He led into the lane but could not put away his rival and it was the narrowest of photos, fortunately top rider Paco Lopez got his nose down in front for my third win of the day and second from Monmouth.  Then came "THE Race" of the day.  It was a claiming event going 5 1/2 furlongs and I liked Unruly Heir.  Check out my analysis.

I was surprised with about five minutes to post that apparently I was in a strong minority with the selection because there was a 3/5 favorite and 'Heir was 9/2.  Still, as I'd written at even half the DRF odds (which have been 4/1 and I was getting 4 1/2-to-1) it was stealing.  First, Jose Ferrer just seems to win ALL these short sprints, and then there's the matter of the troubled trip AND the record at the distance.  I was just so surprised not more people saw this.  They left the gate and after the opening quarter mile the odds changed to reflect the late money.  The favorite was now a prohibitive 1/5 choice and my odds had nearly doubled, to EIGHT to one.  Oh my!  On the turn I could tell....I've got the winner at a B-I-G price, oh my!  But as they came into the lane the favorite made a left turn and slammed into my horse then kept drifting out.  Ferrer is a strong rider however and he got Unruly Heir on a straight path and accelerated clear to the wire.  Check out the payout.....

That's right my friends!  Who can handicap, come on....WHO can handicap!  I came right back to win the eighth and was set to wait for the eleventh which was my BET of the Day.  But the tenth was the featured Colleen Stakes for 2yo fillies.  I saw there was a short-priced favorite and so I looked at the field because I knew that trainer Wesley Ward had entered three yesterday in the featured juvenile stakes and all three were cross-entered today.  And one of them had won yesterday.  Well two of the entrants for today were scratched and that left Paco Lopez on the Ward favorite, Foolish Humor.  I decided to go in for double the investment.  She dueled through hot fractions between horses into the stretch and then the second choice slammed into her almost unseating Lopez.  I immediately thought, "just hold on for second because she's coming down" and down she came.  My sixth win of the day!

And the finale was a slam dunk.  Paco was going for his SIXTH winner on the day and he was on nearly everyone's "single" in the Pick 5 and Pick 6 and my BEST.  EASILY.  What a day as I finished with six wins at Monmouth and 7-for-9 on the day.

For the weekend I was 15-for-28, over 50% and at Monmouth I was over 60% with 11-for-18 winners.  Add in the family here for the birthday and it all added up to a GREAT weekend.

Birthday Photos

Oliver is fascinated with Santa so we bought him Santa pajamas

Khloe being, well Khloe....a hooded sweatshirt in Florida?

The boys join in the hoodie look

So adorable - slept every night with Gma & Gpa

It doesn't get any better than this

Playing with Gma - note the Santa Mickey (and Alaska t-shirt)

The fascination with the doors

The Jaxson's celebration













Birthday 2019

King George Week

July 26 - 28

What a weekend....what a month....and what a first half to the summer!  I had so been inclined to close the books on the month of July last weekend, but I knew that the full three days of the racing weekend still fell within the month of July so I didn't want to skew the stats.  I was very econxcited to read last week that the champion filly, Enable (who'd been my BET of the Weekend at the Breeders' Cup) was running this weekend.  And at first glance I thought she'd be a mortal lock, but the more I investigated who was running I came to realize there was a very real legitimate threat to end her ten race winning streak.  But before we could get to the races Saturday we had Day 27 of the Monmouth Handicapping Project on Friday.

Friday July 26

On Monmouth's eleven race card I originally had seven selections.  One interesting sidelight was I always look forward to Wednesday or Thursday morning to begin handicapping for the weekend.  But with the entire Sunday card wiped out / cancelled management simply moved it intact, without re-drawing to today.  So no handicapping, just play my selections.  As the morning scratches were announced I noted I'd lost my top pick in the opener.  So no bets until Race 3.  Ironically the runner who'd been my second choice in the opener won at generous 7/2 odds.  Then my top pick in the second won as the prohibitive favorite.  So 2-for-2 heading into my first investment of the weekend.  Paco Lopez was taking over on I'm A Cool Man who was claimed out of a winning effort at this level last time.  Toss in the fact that he had paired Beyers and the likely speed of the race was a last out maiden winner and I thought I had a good shot at victory.  Sure enough, 'Cool Man scored by daylight as the 4/5 favorite.  In the fourth right out of the gate Creedability was wiped out by Royally Cool who walked with the race by nearly a pole.  Paco was on board by horse and he made a courageous rally to nearly get into the money, but was fourth under the wire.  But the incident had not gone unnoticed by the stewards and they took him down.  That elevated me to third, which did my bet little good, but it was the principle of the matter.  The fifth was the featured Spruce Fir Handicap.  It looked to me like the top two program choices would decide the outcome and I noted I wouldn't be surprised with a result either way.  I went with 4-Liz's Cable Girl because it seemed nearly certain she'd get to the front and be the one to run down turning for home on the often speed favoring Jersey Shore strip.  Sure enough, as the field approached the turn for home 'Liz was in front with the challenger beginning to make up ground.  Then my top pick drifted a good four or five paths wide into the lane opening a window of opportunity for the second choice.  But Jose Ferrer on my horse never panicked and hand rode her to a "bigger than it looks" half length victory.  And I'm two-for-three to start the day!

In the 6th, a maiden claiming turf sprint Team Effort finished strongly but couldn't catch my second choice who wired the field.  Passed both the seventh and eighth (neither winner was in my analysis), and in the ninth Dial Operator looked clearly best.  Left the gate at 4/5 under Paco but when he didn't get the front immediately he seemed to be discouraged and faded through the lane.  Passed on the tenth before the final play of the day in a two-turn mile for cheap maiden claiming runners.  There were for sure a ton of issues with War Veteran.: he was plunging from MSW to this cheap level; was stretching out from a 6f sprint; and had been away since May 27.  But the drop in class and long layoff are big win angles for trainer Jason Servis.  The opposition was weak, WEAK on top of that.  He tracked the leader to the far turn, took over and when I say "opened up," I don't know if I've EVER had a horse "open up" like this.  The official final margin of victory was TWENTY-ONE lengths.  Just WOW.  And so I closed out the first day a solid 3-for-6.

Saturday July 27:  King George VI Stakes Day
Truly the highlight of the day, for me, would come in mid-morning when my "BEST BET" was running at Royal Ascot.  Champion 5yo filly/mare Enable was putting her winning streak on the line against the highly regarded Crystal Ocean.  For me, that Enable had won the Arc for the second year in a row, off a single prep and after the connections said she wasn't at her best; and then won the BC Turf becoming the first horse EVER to win both those prestigious events (and beat the best boys in the world) said a lot for her.  Today, unlike her initial start to the season a month ago, was also at her best distance, a mile and a half.  She was a little farther back than I thought she'd be, but as the rounded the turn into the home straight she and Crystal Ocean hooked up with the former on the rail and Enable just outside of him.  There have been few races that can rival this EPIC stretch duel, but Enable is just too talented and in the final fifty yards began to edge clear.  It was truly something to watch live on the big screen.  AND it was even more exciting knowing I'd won with my best of the day before the bulk of the day's racing had begun :)

The afternoon's racing did not start off as I expected.  Noonsight was clear into the lane in the Monmouth opener as the 4/5 favorite, but was nailed in deep stretch, second.  I ran second at a good 3/1 price in the Saratoga opener as well.  Then in the third at Monmouth I had the even money favorite Radiantrithym.  In a virtual replay of the 4th race Friday where my horse was wiped out at the start, I was cut off and forced to check sharply shortly after leaving the gate.  I was not watching the live feeds on xpressbet, though I had them open - without sound - because I was watching the live telecast on TVG.  The Monmouth race finished as I split horses and was a close second on the wire behind a longshot whom the TVG hosts were calling a nice priced winner as they went to commercial break.  The third at Saratoga came up right afterwards and I had Frisky Magician in a turf sprint.  Ran strongly at a fair 5/2 price, but was second best behind a runaway front runner.  But as the threw it back to the studio the one host remarked, "Oh and by the way we had an inquiry and steward's disqualification at Monmouth in their third race."  Wait....what?  I did run second right?  Went back to check the video feed and there I was walking into the winner's circle.  OH HORRAY!  I've got my second winner and instead of losing a double investment, I'm cashing for more than $20 :)  The fifth at Monmouth was a one mile turf race and it was their featured Frisk Me Now Stakes.  Trainer Joe Sharp had only started ONE horse at the New Jersey oval and he'd won, until today when he shipped in Tracksmith.  And I liked that not only did he make the trip from Saratoga, but jockey Adam Beschizza came along for the ride.  In his 2yo season he'd run very well even in graded company.  He'd won his 3yo debut about a month ago in allowance company with a strong rally which set up nicely for today because there looked to be several speed types.  Finally, a long time ago I read a handicapping book by NY analyst Dave Liftin and he'd pointed out that any time a 3yo came back with a Beyer figure in his first or second start of his sophomore year that tops his 2yo top number, he's ready to run big.  Tracksmith had earned a big 86 in that allowance win.  Uh oh.  He was in last in the small five horse field mid-way on the turn then took off.  In a blink of an eye he was in front and edged clear to win the feature, with my triple investment on board.  THREE wins on the day.

The fourth at Saratoga was a MSW for two-year olds and I thought EITHER of the coupled entry owned by Gradview Equine would have been a short-priced favorite today.  Shoplifted was my preference as an $800K purchase with a strong bullet work for Steve Asmussen.  But you couldn't dismiss Soviet who went for Todd Pletcher & John Velazquez and he'd been a $425K purchase.  In the wagering you got two for the price of one.  Good for winning chances, bad for odds.  A speed duel led to a perfect set-up for Shoplifted who blew by in mid-stretch and drew off impressively.

Second at 1/5 in Monmouth's sixth - wow (Jason Servis-Paco Lopez), but then I went on a five-for-six tear.  Monmouth's 8th featured an angle I especially like at this time of the year.

The conditions for this "beaten" claiming event read, "....for 3yo or 3yo and up which have never won two races..."  Here I always look for the multiple winning 3yo.  Nancysaidso was the one and only filly in the field with multiple wins.  The only reason I didn't go in for an added investment was because after being regarded highly enough to run in the FSS Series last summer at 2, she ran in an AOC nw1x, then plummeted to this same $7.5K "beaten" level last time and was second at 3/5.  Big rider upgrade to Paco made her the choice.  Right to the front as the 1/2 chalk, controlled the race into the stretch then appeared to be collared before Paco opened her up to draw off to win.  Right back in Monmouth's ninth when Spring Up was the choice in a claiming event on the turf.  He'd been denied as the 8/5 favorite two weeks ago, but the 9yo had tons of back class.  His three last Beyers would require something near a career effort by his rivals.  Ninth of ten after the opening quarter mile he roared past the field on the turn and drew off to the easiest of wins, nearly half a dozen on the wire under wraps at even money.  After a miss with a Todd Pletcher colt at Saratoga it was near time for the opener at Del Mar.  As I'd mentioned, I'd been watching the TVG broadcast live and for the past thirty minutes the announcers, based in the Del Mar paddock had been talking about the "exciting" 2yo prospect in the opener, Wrecking Crew.  This juvenile son of new freshman sire Sky Kingdom had drawn an $875K bid at the sales ring and I'd been close to putting him on my selection sheet.  But just too many questions about these lightly raced runners.  Then I kept hearing former trainer Simon Bray rave about this guy.  I checked the early double probables and he was a heavy favorite and was taking a ton of money in the WIN pool.   Bray then showed his Early Pick 5 ticket on the screen.  The single in the sequence.....the debuting two-year-old Wrecking Crew.  Because I'd considered him initially, and now all this info he became a LIVE bet.  He broke behind the field but was smoothly glided into contention by top So Cal rider Flavian Prat.  Circled the field and drew off in a visually impressive performance.  NICE.

The eleventh at Monmouth was an entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  Curluck appealed to me in spite of how wide open the race seemed.  The 4yo filly had moved into Jason Servis' barn at GP during the Championship Meet and had faltered in a turf sprint.  She was second off the shelf today (35% for Servis) and got Paco Lopez (47% for Servis).  Too good to ignore.  Sat mid-pack to the turn, launched a 4-wide rally and drew off under a hand ride for my eighth win of the day.  I'm having a very good day!  The second at Del Mar was a MSW for older going a mile and a sixteenth and I went with Moody Jim.  The obvious favorite was Parsimony who had run second twice in stakes and had big numbers.  But he was a 13x - yes thirteen time - maiden.  Not for me.  Moody Jim had run a sharp 4th at Churchill Downs and now found himself in new surroundings with a chance to score.  Came rallying late and up in time at a very generous $9.40.  I wish I'd doubled the bet instead of going for the minimum play.  Still, cashed for nearly $25.

The Grade 1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga saw a horse who'd not won in a year set a track record in 1:07.94, beating my top choice soundly as the 1/2 favorite.  Remember this time.....it's important to a story later!  Missed at 3/5 in the co-feature at Del Mar when Bob Baffert's 3/5 favored Cruel Intentions faded despite dropping out of open company into a state-bred stakes.  Scored for the final time on the day when TVG hostess Cristina Blacker's trainer/husband Dan Blacker sent out Hackberry in a MSW turf route.  As I noted in the analysis, I'm a big Beyer fan.  But I realize those numbers are least reliable in two circumstances:  either maiden races or with lightly raced horses.  This situation had BOTH scenarios.  Still, his 82 and 86 Beyers would require about a fifteen length turn around to be beaten.  Rallied strongly and scored at even money for my TENTH win, from nineteen selections, on the day.  Despite missing in both the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga and Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar it was an excellent day of racing!

Sunday July 28
Towards the end of June I had bet and won with a Jorge Navarro lightly raced 3yo named Shancelot.  He'd won at the Gulfstream Championship Meet in a KEY race (the runner-up came back to run second in the Gr 1 Florida Derby and two others exited to win).  On June 22nd Shancelot was odds on and he coasted home without being asked in a sizzling 1:08 and change.  I was visually impressed.  Shortly thereafter Navarro was quoted that Shancelot was "...the best horse I've ever trained...." and considering his trained multiple graded stakes winner, that's something about a two race 3yo.  So prior to this weekend I read he was running today in Saratoga's featured Grade 2 Amsterdam, a 6 1/2 furlong sprint for sophomores.  I knew no matter what, he would be a LIVE bet - if Navarro says he's the "best I've ever trained," then I don't need any other information!  So this morning, after I printed out the selections for Monmouth I went to the entries to see when was Shancelot's Gr 2 Amsterdam, and his post/odds.  When I did I decided I browse through the entries and see if there was anything else that caught my eye.  Three other non-Monmouth runners caught my eye and I added them to my selection sheet.  In the Monmouth opener Solar went off a 2/1 and stalked the leader into the lane as a first-off-the-claim runner for trainer Kelly Breen with Paco Lopez on board (31% / 41%).  Cleared in mid-stretch but was caught by my second choice.  Passed the second and third races.  Prior to the fourth at Monmouth was the first of the four "out of town" plays.  I'd seen at Gulfstream that Sleeping Giant was 3/5 on the morning line in a claiming turf sprint.  He was the BEST BET for EVERYONE who posts selections online.  He'd beaten three of the six in this field last time out and two that were NOT in the race had come back to win.  Got lots of pace pressure inside which led to a four-wide trip, but when Edgard Zayas asked him he spurted clear and won by daylight.

In Monmouth's fourth Flan was a nice 4/1 price but was fourth behind odds-on winner Sunflower Girl who was my second choice.  The fifth was my BET of the Day at Monmouth.  This was a claiming event going six furlongs and it looked like the top two favorites, which had two of the top riders, would decide it.  Powerfully Built had Jose Ferrer and was a 3x winner in this "beaten" field because he was a 3yo.  He was the likely pace setter and while he could win I didn't like that his three wins had come in a MC $20 then two $7.5K claiming events - today the tag was $20K.  Meanwhile Camgo was going second off the shelf for Jorge Navarro.  He'd been a weakening fourth vs. ALLOWANCE rivals at Parx last time out.  Drops for a first time tag and the 2nd off the layoff angle is a 31% angle for Navarro.  Add in Paco Lopez and it's a done deal - prime time.  The race just as I expected into the lane when Paco sent Camgo up the rail to catch Powerfully Built.  But that one would not go away and they dueled into the final fifty yards.....PHOTO FINISH!

PHOTO FINISH

I was happy to get a "decent" 3/5 price and cash for over $30 on my second win of the day.  Passed on races six and seven then ran 2nd with Border Town in a MSW mile race on the turf.  He was the 8/5 favorite as a first time starter for Chad Brown.  But when the gates opened he stood motionless and spotted the field about eight to ten lengths.  The pace was quick and he accelerated around the turn and looked like he might go right on by to win.  But the winner had the jump on him and more energy for the final 16th and he was second.  Tab him for next time!  I was very surprised to lose BOTH the 9th and tenth when Best Choice went down at even money and Ellyb ran a fading fourth as the 3/5 choice in the featured Just Jenda Stakes.  Before the twelfth Del Mar was about to begin their program.  When I had looked through the entries I opened Del Mar's card for today and in the opener Immediate Impact was the short 7/5 favorite in a MSW for two-year-olds.  I looked for info and found two articles about how this daughter of champion Arrogate had drawn a huge price tag at the auction and had been working lights out for today for Bob Baffert.  Wow does this sound familiar to Saturday's opener!  Then Simon Bray came on TVG with his early Pick 5 and AGAIN his single was in the opener with Immediate Impact.  She sat three deep into the far turn and then effortlessly glided up to take command and ran away with plenty in the tank.  Even more impressive than Wrecking Crew yesterday and immediately the TVG hosts began speculating we'd see her next in the Gr 2 Sorrento and then possibly in the BC Juvenile Fillies this fall because she was just going to get better as the distances get longer.

The next play was at Monmouth.  Muggasmatic was the third runner on the card to go first off the claim for Kelly Breen and have Paco Lopez up.  The first two had lost, but not this guy.  Stalked the leaders in fourth to the far turn, swung into the clear and just BLEW by to win going away under wraps.  Wish I'd had more confidence, but had I been watching all day (we'd gone to the movies) I doubt I would have upped the bet with the first three Breen-Lopez runners losing.  My fourth win today.  The finale was next and I had Exceed The Goal who was 9/5 in the program.  By now I was watching the races live and the TVG guys at Monmouth both said he'd be "tough to beat" and looked "really formidable" today.  He was being hammered in the WIN pool and all the multi-race wagers so I upped the bet.  Pressed the pace to mid-turn, took over without being asked.  Opened up by daylight and then Paco - winning his FIFTH of the day - wrapped him up for the final furlong....still won by multiple lengths.  Now it was time for the Grade 2 Amsterdam and all the talk was about Shancelot.  The common theme seemed to be IF he was as good as advertised and his works seemed to say, he was the winner.  But with only two starts under his belt; facing graded stakes runners; at a new track, and Saratoga at that; it was difficult to take a short price....especially from a wide draw in post twelve.  NONE of that bothered me, I tripled the bet.  Broke sharply and immediately cleared the field as they began their six and a half furlong journey.  The opening quarter was an unbelievable :21.3 - certainly he'll slow it down to save something for the stretch I thought.....as they passed the half mile pole at the top of the turn announcer Larry Colmus called out it was a wicked :43.4, oh my.  But here's the thing - NO ONE was making up ground and he'd yet to be asked.

He clicked off the six furlong time in 1:07.63 - recognize that number?  Yesterday when the six furlong track record was broken with the fastest time in over 150 years it was 1:07.94.  As Shancelot cruised under the finish line the final time was posted in 1:14.01, a NEW TRACK record!  So he technically broke TWO track records in one race.  But the best news is that the announcers were singing his praises saying he had every chance to run the table of the 3yo sprint stakes this summer and would probably be 1/9 at post time....but today I'd gotten 6/5, and you'll never see that again on this guy!

Missed in the final of the four non-Monmouth races when Paradise Woods was fourth as the 8/5 second choice in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar.  For the day I was 6-for-12 and that made my weekend record:

It was a great weekend of racing for sure!

King George Weekend Racing Highlights

Haskell Week

Thursday July 18 - Sunday July 20

It was a really, REALLY interesting weekend of racing - from the first winner of the week through the last.  Here's how it all unfolded......

Thursday July 18
Keith and I had arrived back in Fort Lauderdale on Sunday night at midnight.  I worked Monday and Tuesday on the web page and journal for our Track Trip and my daughter Julie arrived Wednesday for a short visit before heading out for a trip to Portugal.  As we were all together in the living room and Keith turned on the TVG horse racing network.  As we were chatting I thought I heard the announcers talk about the talented runner Hofburg.  I'd seen him break his maiden for Bill Mott last winter at Gulfstream and then in an unusual move, especially for him he entered him right back in the Grade 1 Florida Derby where he ran 2nd and in the Kentucky Derby where he ran 7th.  I had him last summer at Saratoga where he'd won the Curlin Stakes.  I said to Keith, did they say Hofburg is running this week?  He didn't catch it so I looked it up in the future entries.  Sure enough, entered in a non-conditioned allowance event going nine furlongs on Thursday.  I invested for a double bet.  He sat in fourth to the far turn behind Flowers For Lisa - who has a history with me....the short version, missed his maiden win when he'd lost for me in like his sixth try and he'd beaten me on the front end another time.  I knew if Hofburg was right he'd run him down especially at this extended nine furlong trip.  Eased into the clear on the turn, moved to challenge a furlong out and eased by without being asked for a full-out drive.  Had my first win of the day.

Later that afternoon I saw that Saratoga was announcing they would NOT run on Saturday, Haskell Day because they anticipated the weather and heat index to be too hot.  That made me wonder about the Saturday card at Monmouth.  Certainly they wouldn't cancel the card on their biggest day of the year.  I then saw a couple video interviews with Monmouth officials and they assured the camera that they had done all the proper research and had multiple "protocols" in place to deal with possible heat issues.

Friday July 19
I had five selections on the day, where the weather was as hot as it had been throughout the week and was about the temperature/heat index that was anticipated for both Saturday and Sunday on the Jersey Shore.  So as I watched the races, and won two of them, I was confident that the races would be run as scheduled tomorrow, Haskell Day.  I saw online that Sunday at Saratoga they were running the Grade 2 Shuvee Handicap, and THAT race had not been listed for Saturday, but they'd already announced ALL of Saturday's races would be run Sunday.  Since I'd already handicapped the Saturday Saratoga card I went to the entries to see what the deal was.  Sure enough they were there, but NYRA had added a hurdles race as the opener, then the Saturday card was intact - but each race was a race later in the card - and they had added the Shuvee as the finale.  As I handicapped the Sunday card for Monmouth I added in my Saratoga selections and decided to pass on the Shuvee since I didn't see the sense in re-purchasing the Sunday card since the only race I didn't already have was that one.

Saturday July 20:  Haskell Invitational Day
My plan had originally been to drive out to Gulfstream today, especially since Kim was in Pennsylvania and both Keith and Julie had left.  But after looking over the card locally I didn't see anything of interest and then Saratoga was cancelled.  So I didn't see the purpose of driving out there to watch on TV screens without sound when I could stay here at the "Sunrise Simulcast Center" - the house - and watch on a big screen TV with sound.  To get the whole picture of what ensued next you need to know that Kim and I had booked a Holland America Pacific Coast Cruise for September 30 through October 6 and recently her Mom had indicated an interest in joining us.  So as I was awaiting the opener at Monmouth Park I called my travel agent Nancy Nelson.  I muted the sound and was watching the live video feed on TVG as we chatted.  It got to be close to post time, but I was surprised that the horses were not on the track and I kept seeing interviews taking place at Monmouth.  Nancy and I finished our conversation and I rewound the video to discover that NOW Monmouth was concerned about the heat index and had announced they would run the first two races and then make a decision.  My immediate thought was that the crowd, the HUGE crowd on this their signature day would be there on track and what....they were going to send them home and tell them to come back tomorrow or on another day?  The horses went on the track and my pick ran second as the 3/5 choice.  I didn't have a pick in the second and then the announcement came.....

I have to admit I was really surprised at this decision.  And then I watched the TV hosts interview a couple of horsemen, including top North American trainer Todd Pletcher who remarked that in his opinion the weather wasn't any hotter than many days that they'd run during past summers.  This all goes back to being "politically correct" since the number of horses dying out west at Santa Anita so now everyone is all overlly concerned that something happen on their big day of racing.  The next thought I had was how MY day was now going to be a SLOW one without a full day of racing as I'd originally thought; that I was SOOO glad I had not driven to Gulfstream; and then I thought about how I was originally supposed to be at Monmouth today with Jim - man what an experience that would have been; AND Keith and I were so fortunate to have made our trip LAST weekend and not this weekend.  What if we'd planned to either go to the Haskell or Saratoga?  So funny how things work out.  Well, when I'd found out that Saratoga was not running I added picks from Del Mar for today so I still could have multiple selections to play.  I revised my selection sheet to reflect the new post times for Monmouth and awaited the second from Del Mar.  The second at Del Mar was an allowance race for sprinters going 6 1/2 furlongs, which was being used as a bridge to next month's Grade 2 Pat O'Brien.  Bob Baffert entered American Anthem who is already a three-time graded stakes winning sprinter.  After an uncharacteristically poor effort in July 2018 in the Gr 1 Bing Crosby here at Del Mar he'd not resurfaced until Derby Day at Churchill Downs and he was a just miss second as the 6/5 favorite in an allowance.  Then he was 4th as the favorite in the Grade 2 Triple Bend at the end of May at Santa Anita.  Neither of those Beyers reflected his best races so I figured if he ran to his best today - and his sharp works seemed to indicate he was sitting on a big effort - he'd beat these.  It was, as the TVG hosts remarked, a stakes quality field without a stakes purse or name.  Jockey Flavian Prat sat in fourth to the turn then followed the second choice into the lane.  That one seemed to be getting away with a furlong to go and then American Anthem found another gear and blew by to give me my first winner on the day.

Finally the action got underway at Monmouth where the plan was to run the five stakes with less than thirty minutes between races.  Divisidero has always been a favorite of mine but since winning three straight graded events (at big prices) on Derby Day at Churchill Downs he'd consistently run big, without winning (often at big prices).  Today he looked like the legitimate favorite in the Grade 3 Oceanport - or would he come up just short again?  I seriously considered cancelling the bet because what had been a fairly full field that would have a lively pace was now a reduced field of four due to late scratches.  I later learned that the two big defections came because the horses had received their Lasix, anti-bleeding medication, as per usual in the morning but with the postponing of the post time to later and now the connections were concerned their horses would bleed.  This could hamper his chances, but I've seen him race in a pace pressing position so I just hoped he wouldn't run an "oh so close" race without winning again.  But that's what happened as he was about half a head behind the second choice on the wire.  Sigh.....  Less than a half an hour later it was time for my BET of the Weekend in the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher.  Midnight Bissou and Monomoy Girl were the two top 3yo fillies of 2018 with Monomoy Girl eventually wining the Breeders' Cup Distaff as my top pick last November when we were at Churchill Downs.  But she has yet to return to the races while Midnight Bissou began her season in late January by taking the Gr 3 Houston Ladies Classic as the prohibitive choice but was JUST up in time.  She's since followed that with four consecutive graded wins including decisive scores in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and last time out in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont.  She just looked much, MUCH the best here.  Heading into the far turn Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith was saving ground on the rail behind a wall of four fillies turning for home.  This could get dicey I thought, but the rail opened and he asked for her kick.  In a flash she blew by Coach Rocks (the GP Oaks winner from last year) and edged clear without being asked for her very best.  The payoff was minuscule, but as I've often said and written, in cases like this the thrill for me is picking the winner and putting my money down to reflect my confidence.

Next on my list was the co-featured Grade 2 San Diego Handicap from Del Mar.  Heading into last year's Breeders' Cup trainer John Sadler sent out a sensationally talented colt in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile named Catalina Cruiser.  This colt had rattled off four straight wins, the last two in graded company and his Beyers stamped him as a legitimate superstar.  But Sadler was winless from over 30 BC starters and I just wasn't convinced.  I didn't have the winner, but 'Cruiser didn't win either, suffering his first defeat.  One of his wins had come in THIS race last year so we knew he liked Del Mar.  He'd made his 2019 return with a super effort winning the Grade 2 True North on the Belmont Stakes undercard and looked primed for a big effort today.  It was a short field and he should have dominated as the prohibitive favorite.  He won, but he was FAR from his best this afternoon, still, had the winning ticket on my second big bet of the day.

I ran second in three consecutive races before it was time for the featured Grade 1 $1 Million TVG Haskell Invitational.  I'd had Jason Servis' Maximum Security in two straight Optional Claiming wins at Gulfstream this past winter when he was sprinting.  I really didn't think he could carry his speed when based on his big Beyer figures they tried the Grade 1 Florida Derby, but he won.  I again didn't think he was that good and watched as he crossed the wire first in the Kentucky Derby, only to have his number taken down in a controversial disqualification.  He came back a month ago in the TVG Pegasus but he hopped at the break and was nailed on the wire by Todd Pletcher's King For A Day, who was back to challenge today.  Maximum Security drew the widest post, #7 today and I didn't think he'd get an uncontested lead so he'd have to rate off the front runners.  I thought that he would not disappoint today.  But in the lead-up to the race I began to wonder about Bob Baffert's Mucho Gusto who had been really impressive in winning the Grade 3 Affirmed.  And then there's the fact that Baffert is an EIGHT-time winner of the Haskell over the last thirteen years.  In fact I remember him winning it a couple of years ago and my remarking, "How hard is it to win the Haskell when Baffert is in it?"  And IF there was a contested pace and/or Maximum Security got early pressure, then Mucho Gusto would set the ideal trip.  I was unsettled until about ten minutes before post time I re-opened the past performances.......

I'm a big believer in Beyer speed figures and as you can see, the numbers CLEARLY pointed out the "Derby winner."  I felt even more confident when hottie Gabby Gaudet interviewed trainer Jason Servis in the paddock and he said he never liked to say he felt confident, but that he felt "very good" about Maximum Security today.  I decided to up the investment a click.  Jockey Luis Saez sat patiently three-wide as King For A Day dueled on the lead with a longshot runner, then made his move on the turn.  He surged to the front and as the camera switched angles King for a Day checked sharply but I didn't really think anything of it.  Mucho Gusto came to Maximum Security and they dueled until Maximum Security refused to yield and edged clear late.  But within minutes the announcement, "Ladies and Gentlemen the stewards have posted the INQUIRY sign and it involves the unoffical winner, please hold all tickets."  You HAVE to be kidding me.  The investigation was brief and while I'm sure neither Todd Pletcher or John Velazquez was happy with the result the video did NOT show decisively that anyone interfered with or caused the problem and King for a Day was already backing up.  It was the right call and Maximum Security got the big Gr 1 win.

After missing with the last pick at Del Mar I closed the day with a good 4-for-9 record.

Sunday July 21:  Coaching Club of America Day
The first "concern" I had about today's races was when I handicapped the Monmouth card I came up with seven selections from the eleven race card, and I wondered if I had been too "open minded" about my picks.  I really believe one of the reasons I score at such a high percentage at Monmouth over the summer is that I am very picky about only betting when I an sure I have a solid play.  I added in the picks from yesterday's Saratoga card - moved to today - to those picks and my plan for the day was to watch the day-long racing from the two venues.  A little after 11 am I went to Xpressbet to get the scratches for today and Monmouth was listed as "CAN" - could that mean they are cancelled?  After running on Friday and Saturday, suddenly it's "too hot" on Sunday?

I checked on Twitter and found the above.  Really?  But it is NOT too hot to race in New York today?  Just wow......So I went from a full day of racing, again, to just four selections.  As I was waiting for Saratoga to begin I went through the Brisnet entries for several tracks to see if anything jumped out to me.  The only thing that caught my eye was in Gulfstream's tenth race.  I went to the Xpressbet "Daily Picks" and found that the favorite, #6 Ice Tea was coming off of a big effort with a big Beyer figure and if he could stretch out in distance he would dominate this group.  I decided to put him, tentatively, on my selection sheet and check out what the GP analysts had to say prior to the race.  My first pick of the day came in the 3rd at Saratoga, on the turf where I liked a Chad Brown runner.  Scratched.  It just keeps getting better and better, right?  In the 4th it was the Grade 1 Coaching Club of America Oaks with a short field of just four 3yo filles going nine furlongs.  Check out the favorite....

Two things immediately jumped out to me.  First, this must be ONE very talented filly to have run such huge Beyer figures, and jumped right into Gr 1 company at Belmont, AND won convincingly.  But, the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont is a one-turn mile and today not only were we running at Saratoga but we were going two turns and nine furlongs.  That seemed to be the only question but as a daughter of Breeders' Cup champion Ghostzapper the distance should NOT be a problem.  I stuck with my pick.  Right to the front and despite some pressure she opened up turning for home.  Then Javier Castellano had Point of Honor in full gear coming from just off the pace.  She was a 3-for-4 filly who'd won the Suncoast Stakes for me at Tampa and most recently the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes.  She got close but then Guarana opened up and drew off again.

One-for-one!  Post time for this graded stakes had been a little after 2 pm and my next pick wasn't until nearly 4:30 pm.  Several times I was tempted by the comments of the TVG hosts, but I stuck to my original picks.  And as Race 8 approached at the Spa I wondered if maybe I shouldn't back off.  The eighth was a maiden special for juvenile fillies going six furlongs.  I had picked Basin as my top choice from the Steve Asmussen barn.  She had debuted as the even money favorite in a Churchill Downs event.  Tracked the leader, rallied and just missed by a diminishing nose.  The 70 Beyer was strong compared to those with experience.  But what caught my eye was that the winner had come back to win convincingly here on opening weekend in the Grade 3 Sanford.  AND DRF analyst Mike Beer noted (even though he did NOT put Basin on top) that DRF Formulator stats (which allow you to run all kinds of filters) showed that trainer Steve Asmussen was a whopping 9-for-18 with two-year olds making their second start at Saratoga, in MSW dirt sprints.  How narrow is that for checking numbers!  To be fair, the sample size was small, but not so small that it didn't catch my eye.  As the full field hit the turn Basin surged to the front.  The other two top choices made a run, but could never get to him.  And the best part was that even though he'd been the favorite throughout the entire betting window, as they went to post he'd clicked up in value and was no longer the favorite.

The generous $6.00 payoff allowed me to cash for $30 and guarantee a winning day.  Later in the day the thoroughbred magazine, "Bloodhorse" did a feature story on Basin as the first winner from Laim's Map, who won the 2015 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland .... as my BET of the DAY on BC Friday when I was there with Keith.  The article is HERE.    Here's a link to my visit to Keeneland's Breeders' Cup in 2015....click HERE.  I missed on the last two picks from Saratoga, but I went ahead with the play at Gulfstream.  Ice Tea when right to the front and never looked in danger.  Considering how good he apparently looked in the Form somehow he went off at a very fair 3/5 price and I cashed for nearly $20 to close the eventful weekend.

So starting with the Hofburg win on Thursday through the Saratoga races (and GP)  I concluded the extended Haskell Weekend with a score of 21 / 10 - 5 - 0, a winning percentage of 47% - whoooo hooooo!

Haskell Week Highlights