Wednesday August 28: Canadian Millions Night
The second was the first of the stakes, the OLG Halton Stakes going a mile and a half on the turf and it looked very wide open to me. Three of the runners had never been a mile and a half and four others had zero wins at the distance. Only English Illusion had a win, and he had two. Didn't think he was a clear winner, but enough of an edge to bet. Fifth at 8/5 odds. The third was the BET of the Night with 20x winner Pink Lloyd. He's a multiple graded stakes winner and has won the last two editions of this Kenora Stakes at six furlongs. AND he was 15-for-16 at this sprint distance. Never going to get rich but he was a near certain winner and he demolished the field under wraps.
In both the next added money event I couldn't find anyone with an edge. In Race 5, the OLD Simcoe Stakes for two-year-olds I thought Goldmine Cat was worthy of a play. Went favored at 7/5 but was just third. The sixth was the OLG Miskoka Stakes for fillies and mares. And I said this in the analysis, if it weren't for reading DRF handicapper Ron Gierkink's analysis I would not have bet this race, much less had this top choice. But, as I've said many times, when handicapping you have to use all the tools available to you. There isn't any single tool that will consistently put you on the winner. Gierkink commented that Blessed Truly had such a troubled trip last time that it was too detailed to list in the space allotted. So I watched the replay and indeed she had MANY excuses. She broke inward, rushed up and then was sawed off not once but twice. Fell to the back of the field, re-rallied four wide on the turn and blew by nearly the entire field and was second closing in on the leader. But then she evened out. Tonight she had top rider Eurico Rosa DaSilva and with a clean break I thought she'd outrun her 15/1 odds. I decided to make her a "Daymaker" and doubled the bet. She was razor sharp out of the gate, went right to the front and never looked back. Didn't get nearly the 15/1 price in the DRF program but I did get a very nice $9.40 payoff which led to collecting nearly $50 on this upset pick. Good job Grandpa, as my grandson Oliver would say :)
Race 7 was the OLG Elgin Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Kingsport was even money in the program and looked REALLY hard to look past. He'd paired figures in his last two and BOTH would beat the combined 102 Beyers earned by the rest of the field. With scratches the field was reduced to only three runners and that concerned me. Funny things happen with the flow of the race in situations like that. Kingsport came with his run, but it was desperately close. Still got the win and after missing with a minimum play in the finale I finished a strong four for six with a tidy profit for the night!
Saturday August 31
This is the final weekend of the Summer Racing Season and it coordinates well with my personal schedule as next Tuesday I leave for Europe with my sister for two weeks. Then I'll "take a break" with some spot plays up to the Breeders' Cup and then be ready to go Opening Day at Gulfstream the first weekend of December. With the Labor Day holiday on Monday Monmouth changed their schedule to race on Sat-Sun-Mon, and in keeping with my schedule, this is their last weekend of having racing three days a week, so I'll no longer handicap their every card. Well, the plan was for me to fly to Columbus on Sunday evening so I could enjoy college football and racing on Saturday. But those plans had to be changed when Hurricane Dorian came calling. The forecast late in the week put it in the vicinity of So Florida Sunday and I didn't want to take a chance having the flight cancelled, so I left Saturday at 5:30. I was able to watch the first four selections of the day at home before Kim and I jumped into our Uber ride to the airport. In the opener at Saratoga I had Chad Brown's Structor who was debuting in this 2yo MSW on the turf. The $850K sales grad had a slew of works and I knew he'd probably be favored, but also knew he was a likely winner. The TVG analysts both thought he was overbet, but for me you either find the winner or you don't. He was....and he did.
The opener at Monmouth was on the turf and Paco Lopez was riding the probable favorite, Devoted Kitten. This one had begun his career for Chad Brown but now ran for Danny Gargan. He'd been a best of the rest second last time out and just looked way too good for this group. He was.... 2-for-2! In the minutes leading up to Monmouth's second I was thinking how I so often have the favorite, but here I had Playwright who was a more-than-fair price. Paco Lopez for Danny Gargan again. But one of my favorite angles was in play - leading up to this race Playwright had posted a best-of-82 bullet work. YOWZA. He rallied on the far turn, came with a determined and sustained bid to wear down the leaders in deep stretch and post a generous $10.40 upset! I'm three-for-three.
I missed in the Grade 2 Prioress at Saratoga when 6x, unbeaten filly Break Even was caught fifty yards from the wire. And then we headed to the airport in our Uber ride. As we arrived at the airport I was disappointed that I'd been wrong about the terminal Kim's flight originated in. Our plan had been to have lunch together and then head to our gates, but she was flying out of Terminal 3 and I was in Terminal 1. We said our good-byes and I watched college football while I ate. I pulled up the next three races on my sheet as I sat there and in Monmouth's fourth I had Gadget Man who'd finished in front of five of seven rivals today and the other two had finished behind horses he'd beaten. Easily at 3/5 odds. Next up was the featured Presious Passion going a mile and half on the turf. Presious Passion was one of my MOST favorite runners for years. His "thing" was to play "catch me as you can" and ALWAYS went soooo fast that everyone knew he'd never last. But he almost always did, including a near miss in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf. Near the end of his career I'd made this collage to commemorate all the money I'd made on him. Good times....
Today's race looked to go through Postulation who had Paco Lopez in the irons. He was the only one in the field with a win at the distance and that came in a graded event. I found it ironic that as the field hit the back stretch the 10/1 front runner was WAY out in front, a la Presious Passion. But I knew he'd never last. Postulation rated in second to the turn, made his move to catch him and then drew clear at the furlong marker. And now I'm four-for-five on the day. Oh it's a good day my friends!
I missed two straight after this, watching them while I was in the waiting area of the terminal. My first flight took me from Fort Lauderdale to Baltimore and as I touched down I pulled up the replays and watched my picks in Monmouth's 11th and 12th BOTH win. Anytime Anyplace went wire to wire in a turf sprint at even money - nice with a double investment. And in the last play of the day on the Jersey Shore Oceanographer ran to his 2/5 odds and scored easily. For the day at Monmouth I was an amazing six-for-seven. WOW. I missed in back-to-back Saratoga graded stakes and as I arrived at the gate in Baltimore it was three minutes to the post of the final play of the day, the Grade 2 John Mabee at Del Mar. Vasilika has been a win machine for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer but disappointed last time out a month ago. How much of that had to do with the race being away from her favorite/home track at Santa Anita and/or that regular rider Flavian Prat was out of town is up for debate. But I thought today she would redeem herself. She sat mid-pack to the turn, began inhaling them, but in mid-stretch seemed to have a lot of work still to do. One final acceleration.......PHOTO FINISH! As I stood at the gate and watched at least eight different angles of slow motion replays I was very uncertain, but then the numbers came up......
I WIN! For the day I was a remarkable 8-for-13 and again had a big profit.
Sunday September 1
I watched the races from my Mom's today and only played the Monmouth card, but it was a good one with not one but FOUR stakes including the Grade 3 Red Bank. Through the first seven races I only had two picks and they both ran fourth. Included in there was the first stakes event, a 2yo racing going a mile on the turf - no way. The ninth began a string of three straight stakes where I DID have selections that I liked quite a bit. In the seventh it was the Safely Kept Stakes going five furlongs on the turf. I thought it was oh-so-obvious that the winner would be Goldwood. She has had a sensational summer on the Jersey Shore, having gone three-for-three, all in stakes company winning the Politely Stakes in May, the Unbridled Essence in June, and then the Incredible Revenge three weeks ago. But I was surprised when listening to the two Monmouth analysts online prior to the race when BOTH went against her saying it was a bad draw, not her distance, and that she wouldn't was vulnerable. Really? I get the "value" argument, but hardly that she was vulnerable. Right to the front and wired the field paying a more than generous $4.60 allowing me to cash in for almost $35.
It was appropriate that she won as well, as her owners (and thus the colors she sported) were from the Colts Neck Stable who campaigned champion Safely Kept, one of the best sprinters of all time. She, yes a filly, beat the boys in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint as a highlight of her career. Missed in the tenth when 7/5 favorite, and unbeaten 2yo Liberate stopped turning for home after pressing the pace going long for the first time. The eleventh was the featured stakes and it had one of my most favorite warriors, Divisidero.......
In 2015 after running a very close third in a graded stakes at Gulfstream early in his three-year-old campaign I made him my UPSET Special at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day. Went off at 9/1, paying $19.20 and WON! That's the picture at the top left. In 2016, now a 4yo, he came back in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve and that day and again Divisidero was the UPSET Special. Flying from the back (bottom right photo above) to score going away and paying $15.40. In 2017 I thought there was no way he pays double digits again, but he was a prime time play for me as he left the gate at odds of 7/2 and paid an even $9 bailing me out for the day as I cashed for nearly $90. Since then he'd raced FOURTEEN times, very often as my top choice and had managed to score only once (in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap in July 2018, when I did NOT have him). Yet over that span he was always close with only loss by five lengths and with six losses by less than two lengths, one of which was a 4th place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile beaten only 3/4 of a length at 43/1 odds, and I had a $5 ticket on him!!!! This summer he was second as the 6/5 favorite in a Laurel stakes and most recently missed by a head here as the 3/5 favorite, both times when I had him. Both times I thought he SHOULD win, but didn't have a lot of confidence. Today, I just felt it was his day. And while he went off at 8/5 he was NOT the favorite. I tripled the bet on him.......me sat patiently about three lengths off the lead in a short field then made his move. Swooped to the front as they turned for home and drove to the wire clear by more than a length. I was more happy for "my old friend" to get back in the winner's circle than for cashing the ticket, but that also made me happy as I closed the day 2-for-6 and about even for the day.
Monday September 2
The final day of the summer season; the final day of the Monmouth Handicapping Project; and the last day before heading off to Europe on a Viking River cruise! Bit of a let-down today as I only won with one selection, but reasonably it would have been hard to continue to win at the big percentage that I was operating at. For the weekend I was a sharp 45% - wow :)
And for the summer I had the highest winning percentage that I've ever had in the twelve plus years that I've kept records. Just a great summer.
