Sunday, June 30, 2019

Summit of Speed Day

Saturday June 29th

Today was THE big day of the Spring/Summer Meet at Gulfstream, literally the only day between Florida Derby Day and Opening Day of the Championship Meet in December that you have real quality racing from top to bottom like we enjoy throughout the winter.  The original Summit of Speed Day was created by Calder Race Course as a way to drawn national attention to South Florida during the summer and the niche they found was for sprinters.  Over several years multiple champions shipped in with big name trainers and jockeys and it was always a day to look forward to at the Miami Gardens track.  But once Calder disappeared Gulfstream has picked up the baton and they have also done a wonderful job creating a "Super Saturday" experience which rivals most big days from January through March.  Today's program featured five stakes races, two of them graded and one of those a prestigious "Win and You're In" Breeders' Cup Challenge Race.  I knew I'd play both Gulfstream and Monmouth - because I handicap all Monmouth live cards, but the question for me was should I play any other tracks?  Last weekend, Ohio Derby Weekend, if I'd played just Monmouth and a couple of the big races I'd have had a stellar day, so I didn't want to "tarnish" a good day of racing at GP and the Jersey Shore by playing too many tracks.  In the end I decided to play Woodbine, where it was Queen's Plate Day - the start of their 3yo Triple Crown series and where there were multiple stakes, and Belmont which had two strong stakes events.  I also reached out to one of my now best friends, and formerly favorite student, Kimmy Westmoreland, who lives very close to Gulfstream Park and invited her to join me for some racing and/or dinner afterwards.  The day could not have worked at better!

The first "issue" came early in the week when the weather forecast called for a lot of rain through the end of the week, but clearing weather for the weekend.  But then the weather system slowed and by late Thursday all the weather forecasts were terming Saturday a "washout."  Great - the one big day and it's going to not only rain, but all the forecasts called for heavy rain and thunderstorms.  But I never really wavered in my commitment to go to the races, I go so infrequently I wasn't going to let the inclimate weather ruin MY day.  Early in the morning it did pour, but by the time I left the house around 10:30 am it was just raining.  Not enough to have the windshield wipers on regular, but definitely raining.  And as I approached Hallandale Beach I could see off to the east the skies looked "better," rather than dark and ominous.  The conditions were "sloppy" and all races were off the turf.  But from my handicapping I only lost one race play locally.  And fortunately and the other three tracks I was playing it was sunny, with fast & firm track conditions.  In the Gulfstream opener I passed - it was a MSW on the turf and who'd run and how they'd run was a toss-up.  I was a little interested in a first time starter - he stayed in the race and won for fun as the favorite.  The second race featured a short priced favorite who'd won last time out by 13 1/2 lengths and now moved into the leading barn which had big numbers first off the claim.  But to me I thought he was a likely bounce candidate - the new barn stats were offset I thought by him stepping up in class and the fact he'd never run within 20 points of that big number he earned.  I preferred what turned out to be the second choice in the wagering, Doc Kane.  He too had been claimed out of his last, but two things about that were big win angles.  First trainer Elizabeth Nobles is 31% first off the claim, and second she'd lost him to a claim several months ago and now had re-claimed him.  I always like that.  The two favorites moved together on the turn but it was Doc Kane who opened up and easily ran away from the favorite!  WHOOO HOOO - one bet, one win!

Next up was the first stakes from Woodbine, the Charley Barley going a mile on the turf.  Global Access had never been on the turf but had the Tomlinson figures to indicate he'd like it AND he was the 1/1 program favorite.  Sent off at the same even money he rallied, but without a strong stretch kick and was only third.  The third at Gulfstream was the Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint, named for the then Calder Racing Secretary who'd helped create this special program AND notably, Calder had been one of the first racing venues to offer sprinting on the turf.  With the weather this one was now moved to the main track.  On the inner course I thought 14x winner Pay Any Price would speed right to the front and wire the field, but he would not run on the dirt.  I did note however in the past performances and in my handicapping analysis that IF it was moved to the main track, it looked to me like jockey Emisael Jaramillo would STILL be in the winner's circle and with trainer Georgina Baxter as they had main track only Lady's Island.  True, she was a mare facing the boys, but she looked to be the LONE SPEED and from a cozy outside draw she looked to get away cleanly and be LONG GONE.  She broke slowly but recovered instantly and within the first five jumps had cleared the field easily and was cruising on a daylight lead.  Opened up turning for home and handily kicked the boys' butts!  I was delighted I'd stuck with my triple investment and now I was 2-for-2 at Gulfstream - oh it's good to be back at the races!


I didn't have anything until the next live race and when I looked at the runners it was obvious to me that this $10K maiden claimer was a complete toss-up.  Probably best to avoid this one and move on, but then, wait a tic......on the rail was WW Handsome who had only been out five times, but some numbers jumped off the page.  His trainer Scott Becker was winning at a big 36% clip.  Last time out 'Handsome had come off a layoff and tried the turf for the first time, obviously hated it.  Now we were turning back from a two-turn turf to a one-turn dirt mile for a winning barn.  Hmmmm, and he was getting blinkers OFF.  That was a 40% win angle for Becker and 2nd off the shelf was a strong 32% win angle.  Underrated jockey Sammy Camacho was winning at a 50% clip for Becker from limited mounts.  At ten-to-one, it was worth a shot.  He got some mention from the public handicappers and some people played in knocking his price down, but he was quickly in position racing third into the turn.  Made "the move" to the front, opened up turning for home and just walked with it!  THREE-FOR-THREE at Gulfstream.

His $11.20 payoff led to a near $30 payoff with just a minimum play!  The second race at Monmouth was coming up next and it was a claiming race that looked to be an "instant replay" of the same class and distance event held June 1st.  On that day Wrong Ben had left the gate as the 1/2 favorite while coming off a layoff.  He dueled through wicked fractions (:44.4 half mile) with Johnny U - who was back today as well - but after putting away that pace rival he was run down late but was 2nd while three clear of the field.  Not only did I think he'd improve just being off the shelf, but I also thought that Johnny U would regress on a barn change that's 0-for-13.  The gates opened and the two went at it for about two-hundred yards, then Johnny U cleared off.  But it didn't look to me that it was because he'd outrun 'Ben, but rather that he let him go on.  Sure enough on the turn, Ben inhaled him and set sail for the wire a daylight winner.  I'd tripled the bet and would cash for nearly $35 on my four win from five selections.  My GP pick was scratched (off the turf) and I lost at Monmouth and Belmont before heading to the windows to put down my money on Monmouth's fourth, a second level allowance race with sprinters going six furlongs.  The main concern most would have would be that Lasting Legacy was coming off a long layoff and would be a short price.  BUT she ran for Jason Servis who wins with 43% of his layoff runners and when top jockey Paco Lopez is up, they team up for 44% winners.  She was sent off as the 3/5 favorite but when the gates sprung open she was caught flat-footed and spotted the field about five or six lengths.  After gathering her feet under her and getting her into stride Paco moved up the rail to reach third.  But mid-way on the turn a wall of four horses were in front of him and he had no where to go.  A seam appeared to be opening outside and he began to move, but got shut off.  Then one-off-the-rail another seam opened and he accelerated.  We were only a furlong from home and the new leader was in full stride.  Lasting Legacy seemed to come to even terms, then drop back.  But in the final 100 yards she re-surged again.....PHOTO FINISH!  Live and on replay I wasn't sure......

YES!  Another winner and I'd collect over $15!  The most likely winner on the Gulfstream card appeared to be Well Defined in the Carry Back.  He'd won the Grade 3 Sam Davis before failing to repeat in the Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby.  This 7f listed event seemed ideal, and in a situation I have rarely seen, both GP handicapper Ron Nicoletti and the DRF's Mike Welsch made him their Best Bet.  He loomed boldly into the stretch and stopped a well-beaten 5th at even money.  Nothing until the seventh at Gulfstream which was originally carded as an entry level turf sprint.  I liked Go Gone Gone who moved into a 31% barn today and had hot-riding apprentice Cristian Torres.  I liked it a lot that he'd shown real ability on the main track so no matter what I was betting here.  He pressed the pace for a quarter of a mile from his outside post, said "I've had enough of this" and cruised to a clear lead, opened up and sprinted home by daylight.  Cashed for almost $25 as I ran my local record to 5-for-6.  It's a good day indeed.

Summit of Speed Day Highlights
Part 1


I went through my only real "losing" spell as I missed on four in a row with my runners hitting the board only once (2nd at 1/5 at Belmont).  The eighth at Monmouth was a claiming event going six furlongs and I thought there were two ways to look at Distinctive Lady.  IF you were willing to look past her ugly last race she'd run five straight numbers that would all win here.  But off that bad effort the connections were plunging her from a $12.5K tag to this basement level $5K.  That's not a good sign.  But, Paco Lopez was riding.  I interpreted this as the connections were willing to lose her, but wanted to pick up the purse today and the claiming price.  And if no one took her it would be a confidence builder and she could begin to climb back up the ladder.  She came away sharply and dueled on the inside of the even money favorite.  Midway on the turn that one edged clear by more than a length and my first thought, honestly, was that Paco always has something left - don't give up yet!  Sure enough, once they turned for home he asked 'Lady to turn it up a notch and she got into the bit and fought back gamely.  Got to even terms a hundred yards out and edged clear.  Cashed on my 7th winner of the day and third from Monmouth Park!  Within minutes it was post time at Woodbine for the Grade 2 Dance Smartly going the marathon mile and a quarter distance.  Holy Helena had won the Queen's Plate, beating the boys two years ago and has since become a multiple graded stakes winner on the grass.  Her specialty is this kind of race.  She sat comfortably just off the leaders into the far turn, and then Javier Castellano refused to ask too soon knowing that the Woodbine stretch is the longest in North America.  About 3/16th out he asked and she began to inhale those in front of her.  Caught the long time leader at the 16th pole and edged clear!  I had my first graded win of the day and my eight winning ticket while collecting nearly $25.

I went back and forth about betting the tenth at GP, a MSW for 2yo but Genghis had run big numbers while second twice.  Was he just the victim of bad luck or was he just good enough to be second best?  Sent off at even money he looked good into the turn, then gave way willingly and ran second again.  The 7th at Belmont was their co-feature, the Perfect Sting going a mile on the turf.  You HAD to like Uni in spite of the almost certain short price.  She'd won a Grade 1 last time out, but that was last fall - so you KNOW trainer Chad Brown has bigger targets down the road.  Still, he excels with layoff runners - especially on the grass.  And the fact was, Uni had won four in a row, five of her last six (three in graded events).  She laid over this field on class and speed figures.  And then, oh yeah, she is a perfect 4-for-4 at the mile distance.  Midway on the far turn she was last in the short field and behind a wall of horses, but I could tell jockey Joel Rosario was riding very confidently.  He picked the ideal moment to steer her clear to the outside and accelerate at the same time.  He literally shook the reins once and she was on the hip of the leader, shook them again and she was long gone under a hand ride.  WOW, she's good.

The feature at Monmouth was a disappointment as my pick, the 6/5 favorite was no where to be found in sixth.  Then it was time for the featured Grade 2 Mother Goose at Belmont - a one-turn mile for three-year-old fillies.  As soon as I'd seen Dunbar Road in the entries I knew I wanted to play the card today.  She'd debuted at Gulfstream early in March and was a runaway winner.  Trainer Chad Brown immediately late-supplemented her to the Kentucky Oaks and entered her in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks for her first try against winners.  She came with a flying rally, but on the speed favoring Hallandale track she couldn't get there in time - didn't help we had a first finish line / short stretch that day.  Brown gave her time and plotted a path to the major 3yo filly features of the summer.  He brought her back in an easy allowance tune-up last time and if she showed even some of her ability she looked tough to beat today.  It wasn't without some drama though as she was in and among fillies all the way to the far turn, and then had no choice but to be shuffled to the back of the compact field.  Ortiz eased her into the clear as they came out of the sweeping Belmont turn and said "GO" and go she did.  In the blink of an eye she'd caught the leaders and in the final 16th she drew off as easily, EASILY the best.  This filly has a big future I'm telling you.  She was the BEST of the Day.

The Woodbine featured $1 Million Queen's Plate had a full field of fourteen and I thought that probably the best colt in the lineup was the 2yo Canadian Champion Avie's Flatter.  But, (a) he'd only had one race - a turf win in a Keeneland stakes - and was drawn in post 14.  Too much to ask.  So I went with the second choice.  Missed the break, checked early and was done.  No, the favorite didn't win.  Menaced at the top of the lane, but ran out of gas.  The twelfth at Gulfstream was the featured Grade 2 Princess Rooney, a seven furlong sprint which was a "Win and You're In" Breeders' Cup Challenge event.  Last year Stormy Embrace had won this race and went on to the Breeders' Cup.  She was overmatched (outrun at 45/1 odds) and she'd run well to be 2nd and 3rd in two GP Championship Meet graded events.  But she looked formidable today.  Last year she used the Musical Romance as a prep - won then scored in this Gr 2 with a career best 97 Beyer.  Well, she took the same route this year, but aired with authority in the Musical Romance earning a new career high 99 speed figure.  Anything even close to that and the rest were contesting the minor prizes.  As the field hit the far turn she cruised to the front before the rising 3yo star made a move.  Briefly, oh so briefly you had that "uh oh" feeling, but then....NO, she was long gone.  My FIFTH win locally.  She's earned a spot in the BC World Championships again!

No bet until the Grade 3 Smile Stakes and I liked the lightly raced Jalen Journey.  He went off at 6/5 and surged to the front turning for home but paid the price for dueling through the first five furlongs, second best under the wire.  At about this time I got a text from Kimmy asking what I wanted to do for dinner.  Pretty excited we were going to get together - we have such a great connection and never run out of things to talk about.  I told her I was already here and unless she had a better idea to join me here and we'd eat at one of the many places here.  I ran third at 4/5 in the 11th at Woodbine before Kimmy arrived.  We asked someone to take our photo and went into the Yardhouse for the evening.  We were there from 6:30 until almost 11:30 and shared stories and caught up.  Just great fun.  I had planned to buy her dinner but her big news was SHE had gotten a big promotion and now makes more than twice the money I do every month.  I grudgingly agreed, which made her happy and she said it should make me proud that I'd help "mold her" into such a success :)  Awwww shucks.  While she was paying the bill I checked my last race - the finale at Woodbine......another winner and at a nice $6.70 price with a double investment to net a return of nearly $35.  Finished 12-for-25, nearly 50% on the day......five for nine at Gulfstream.......won multiple out of town graded stakes......met with one of my most favorite people on the planet.....what could have been better?  What a day!

Summit of Speed Highlights
Part 2 

Monday, June 10, 2019

Belmont Week / Alaska

June 1 - 8 
Alaska Cruise / Belmont Festival

On Thursday May 30 Kim and I left Orlando to fly to Anchorage, to begin our "Alaska 5.0" adventure.  It marked our fifth trip the the "Last Frontier" and this time we were meeting our great friends Claudia & Gary Wanlin there for the trip.  You can check out the trip by visiting our Alaska website, click HERE

I had decided prior to the trip that I would take the nearly two weeks off from handicapping and playing the races, but while we were in Denali National Park for the first weekend I saw online that two of my favorite runners were racing on Saturday.  So from our hotel at the park I was able to bet the races through my xpressbet app.  The first was the re-scheduled Greenwood Stakes from Woodbine where Horse-for-the-Course Pink Lloyd looked to be formidable at a very short price.  He stalked the pace in fourth to the far turn of the sprint stakes, then swung up on the outside and powered home a winner!
The second race I liked was the Grade 2 Santa Maria from Santa Anita where Paradise Woods looked to be as formidable.  She moved too early to the front, I thought, and was caught on the wire, second.


The second week of our trip was Belmont Festival Week with big stakes races on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  And while I DID decide I wouldn't "play the races," I also had figured - because I knew I had time on the ship - that I'd look over the big stakes races and maybe make a few spot plays.  I thought by Tuesday the past performances for the stakes events on Thursday would be up, but when I went to check I discovered that all of my racing sites (drf.com, brisnet.com, and xpressbet.com) were blocked by the Holland America Cruise line server.  Why?  Go figure?  But for some reason the link to the Bloodhorse magazine website was not blocked.  I wasn't able to access the past performances, not could I get the entries for all the races on the card but I could see who was running in the stakes races.  At this point I figured I'd make my spot play selections, and post them on my website (a couple of people who follow my racing selections had inquired about that).  But I figured I wouldn't be able to bet them.  On Thursday June 6 there was only one race that I liked, the Grade 3 Wonder Again where Newspaperofrecord looked to be the easiest of winners at a minuscule price.  She'd disappointed in her seasonal debut in the Grade 3 Edgewood on Kentucky Oaks Day, but afterwards the comments by the trainer and jockey led me to believe that they knew she wasn't 100% but that her next start we'd see the "real" Newspaperofrecord.  We got off the ship for our excursion that afternoon and because we were in Alaska, a US state, I could turn the WiFi off and use the basic phone signal at no cost.  I tried my xpressbet app and sure enough, it worked!  ALRIGHT, I can bet the race!  Unfortunately, she went off at a meager 1/9 price and had a daylight lead into the stretch, but was run down by her stablemate.  Whether she was one of "those" two-year-olds that are so good as a juvenile but don't carry it into their three-year-old season, or it was the 9f distance of today's race we don't know, but she was second for the second time after having what looked like a commanding lead turning for home.  The races on Friday only had one that appealed to me.  It was the Grade 2 True North Stakes and I liked Catalina Cruiser.  He'd been a real terror last year out west and came into the Breeders' Cup Mile as a short-priced favorite.  He didn't fire that day.  And this was his first start back.  I thought that the fact that trainer John Sadler shipped him across the country to run today spoke to how serious they were and I bet him, but just the minimum.  On the bus ride back from our excursion I checked the results and I'd won!

The $5.60 payoff meant I'd get back nearly $15.  After I closed the app and I told Kim I'd won I remarked that it was too bad that all day tomorrow, on Belmont Day - where I had five selections - we'd be at sea.  So I wouldn't be able to bet.  But within a couple minutes the thought occurred to me that often on big event days like this there is advanced wagering.  I re-opened my app and sure enough, there was a "Belmont Advanced" wagering menu.  I plugged in all five wagers before we arrived back at the ship, and I knew I'd be able to check the results on the Bloodhorse page later in the day Saturday.  The first bet came in the fourth race, it was the Grade 1 Just A Game for older fillies and mares going a mile.  Chad Brown's Rushing Fall had only lost one time - due to a very poorly judged ride I believe - and she just looked really strong.  As I remarked in my analysis not only did she simply look like the best horse in the field but the rivals lining up to face her were less than formidable.  Javier Castellano took her right to the front, set moderate fractions and when the field began to pick up the pace turning for home his filly had plenty left and she accelerated home a daylight winner!

Next up was the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps going a mile and a sixteenth, and the distance was a key part of my selection.  Midnight Bissou has won nine of her last thirteen starts, and in three of the four losses she was beaten by Monomoy Girl, one of which was the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff.  Well, Monomoy Girl has yet to begin her 2019 campaign so Midnight Bissou is the divisional leader by default.  To be fair, she is unbeaten in three starts this year, including a win in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom last time out.  BUT it was also significant that she was a perfect 8-for-8 at this 8 1/2 furlong distance.  She rode the rails in fourth to midway on the far turn, swung out and collared the 4/5 favorite - how 'Bissou wasn't the public choice I'll never know - and drew off as much, MUCH the best.  Two for two on the day :)

The Grade 1 Jaipur Invitational was next on my sheet.  This six furlong turf sprint has been owned the last two years by Disco Partner and he was in the field today.  But this afternoon he'd have to face World of Trouble who has been just a beast this year.  He's won in off-the-turf sprints, on the turf, and event took down a 7 furlong dirt sprint last time out.  Just white-hot form and I didn't see anyone capable of running with him.  He burst from the gate and rattled off wicked splits of :21.4 and :43.4 which going five furlongs might have made him susceptible to a closer like Disco Partner but at this six furlong distance those kind of fractions could be troublesome.  Not for World of Trouble!  He continued to pour it on and drew off in a dazzling display of speed stopping the teletimer in a remarkable 1:06.2.  He was my first "big" bet of the day, and I was cashing for the third consecutive time!  I'm having a very good day.

The ninth race was the Grade 1 Met Mile and it was a star studded affair with a field.  It was considered a great betting race and I could have easily seen any one of six horses win, but I have been very impressed with the improving Mitole who won the 7 furlong, Grade 2 Churchill Downs last time out in impressive fashion.  I liked him here in this one-turn mile.  He pressed fast fractions into the stretch and edged to the front.  To be fair McKenzie was probably the best horse but he was buried behind horses through the turn and midway through the stretch AND had to check and alter course.  But Mitole held them all off and won paying a generous $9 :)  And now I'm four-for-four with my BET of the Day coming up.

That big bet came in the tenth, the Grade 1 Manhattan carded for a mile and a quarter on the turf.  I picked Chad Brown's Bricks and Mortar to win the richest turf race in North America, the Pegasus World Cup Turf, and he won decisively.  I won right back with him in the Grade 2 Muniz on the Louisiana Derby Day card and then again when he won the Grade 1 Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby Day.  He's clearly - in my opinion - the best turf horse in North America.  And I also think we have yet to see him at his best, that's bad news for all the other turf runners pointing for the Breeders' Cup.  He sat patiently under Irad Ortiz to the top of the lane, swung out about five wide and mowed them all down.  Ironically trainer Chad Brown finished 1 - 2 - 3 in the race, he is really loaded in his turf stable!  Somehow the crowd let Bricks and Mortar go off at 3/5 so I cashed for over $30!

So for the day I was a perfect 5-for-5....while sailing through the Inside Passage of Alaska no less....and finished 6-for-7 for Belmont Week with a clear profit of more than $60.  WHOOO HOOOO.

Belmont Festival Highlights
(from Alaska!)