Breeders' Cup Weekend

November 1 - 2:  Breeders' Cup Weekend 2019

Future Stars Friday
All year I handicap and play the races with an eye towards the year-end world championships.  I've been fortunate enough to have attended many of these, including the previous three editions at Keeneland in 2016, Del Mar in 2017, and Churchill Downs last year.  I've been to Santa Anita for two different Breeders' Cups and just didn't have the desire to head to Los Angeles again so I took this year off.  Ironic because as it turns out my oldest son Jeff is out of college football this season AND is located just about 45 minutes from Santa Anita where he could have joined me this year.  Sigh.... I just hope that he stays at the same high school for two more years because in 2021 the Breeders' Cup is at Del Mar about an hour south of where he is now.  Speaking of which - I already have plans to attend the Breeders' Cup 2020 at Keeneland - one of my favorite venues - and then in '21 at Del Mar.  So this year's edition followed the format started last year at Churchill Downs where the Friday card is strictly for the juveniles.  Of the five Breeders' Cup races I only had plays in three of them.  In the first of the championship events it was the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint.  Looked to me like an all-Wesley Ward affair, but how to separate them?  All the "experts" were enamored with Four Wheel Drive, which I had made my second choice.  I just didn't trust a debut winner from Colonial Downs in this event; and turf sprints are notoriously difficult to predict.  Right to the front and never looked back as the 3/2 favorite.  Next up was the BC Juvenile Turf.  Three different times I've scored, at a nice price, with Europeans trained by Aidan O'Brien.  And this year he sent Arizona who'd run second, twice, to in my opinion the best 2yo in training Pinabuto.  My second choice was Chad Brown's Structor who was 2-for-2.  Arizona broke poorly and was quickly out of contention....Structor won at a generous 5/1 price.  Next up was the one race I was really looking forward to.  Donna Veloce was an $800K sales grad and had debuted at Santa Anita in a MSW sprint going 6 1/2 furlongs.  She was electrifying - enough so that I was willing to make her my bet despite facing winners and two turns for the first time.  She dueled the length of the stretch before just getting beat by two-time graded stakes winner British Idiom (who was my fourth choice).

Donna Veloce (#1 inside) just misses in BC Juvenile Fillies

In the BC Juvenile Filly Turf I thought it was just too wide open and passed.  Good thing, the winner scored at 13/1 and wasn't even on my list of contenders.  Then in the finale, the BC Juvenile I thought it was basically two horses, either Bob Baffert's Eight Rings who I'd had in the Grade 1 American Pharoah when he ran away at 1/5 or midwest invader Dennis' Moment.  I just didn't think Eight Rings was as good as advertised, but I had questions about Dennis' Moment after his two electrifying runs.  I was convinced he was the right one after hearing on TVG that trainer Dale Romans was saying that he was "the best horse I've trained at this stage of his career."  Dennis' Moment left the gate as the 4/5 favorite.  But he stumbled out of the gate and then stumbled again.  He was not persevered with and didn't finish.  But the race was well worth the price of admission for the day because the 45/1 upset winner - who'd been beaten eight plus lengths in the American Pharoah by Eight Rings - was trained by So Cal conditioner Peter Eurton and his daughter (a real hottie) Brittney is a reporter for TVG and NBC and her reactions watching the race were caught on camera.  Her subsequent interview with her Dad was priceless.  Well done, gotta love thoroughbred racing for stories and moments like this.

Championship Saturday
Saturday dawned and it was as Caton Bradar, analyst for TVG noted at the top of the telecast, noted "A new day regardless of how you'd done on Friday!"  I was determined to do better today, but the way the Friday races played out I was afraid that we might be looking at a Breeders' Cup with results similar to 2017 at Del Mar where it was nothing but upsets - none of the races playing out to form.....the winners ran races they'd never run before and the betting choices didn't run to any of their previous best tries.  And I'd thought after handicapping the two days' races that EITHER the races would produce a largely formful Breeders' Cup or it would be like Del Mar.  I also was reluctant to have as much confidence because of the way the track was playing.  On the turf you just needed to be on the lead or close to it, and my turf selections today were NOT front-end types.  Then on the main track it wasn't so much about how you ran prior to the far turn, but as the field turned for home you'd better be on or near the lead because NO ONE came from off the pace through the lane.  I felt better about my dirt selections but still was apprehensive.  With this in mind as I watched College Game Day I wondered if any other tracks had selections I could use to boost my winnings.  Several years ago it was very common for me to spend all day Friday handicapping the Racing Form, then play multiple tracks on Saturday.  But because I was at the races on Saturday I didn't have time to handicap for Sunday.  So I used to "Handicap the Handicappers" and had become fairly proficient at reading between the lines.  So I decided to look over the entries for Saturday.  I found three races from Aqueduct, two from Gulfstream Park West ("Calder-stream"), and one from Parx.  All were considered very short priced program favorites, with the exception of one of the GPW runners who was handicapper Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the day.  I went back and forth about playing these six runners so I decided to just watch the first one, and he won.  So I decided I'd go with my gut and play the other five out-of-town races.  The first of the Breeders' Cup races was the 4th, the BC Filly & Mare Sprint.  I did NOT like the favorite, Covfefe who was a 3yo with blazing speed.  But she was a 6f specialist and I'd played against her in a LISTED event off a big effort against older, and she'd run third that day.  She was coming off a huge effort - where I'd had her - against 3yo - and today she faced older again AND stretched out to 7f.  I liked the So Cal runner Spiced Perfection who was 6/1 at post time.  Made a menacing move turning for home then hung to finish fourth while Covfefe rated off the pace and blew by at the top of the lane to win convincingly as the favorite.  The next was the BC Turf Sprint and it too was a toss-up.  But I'd had Imprimis earlier in the year when he rallied convincingly to score from off the pace.  This went against the track profile from Friday and early on the day Saturday, but I liked that he was third off the layoff and had international superstar rider Frankie Detorri on board.  As they approached the gate the TVG broadcasters talked about the mare posted on the outside, Belvoir Bay, who they said was as talented as the rest but the post was difficult.  She broke sharply and wired the field at a big 14/1 price....again, get to the front on the turf.  Imprimis went off at a huge 11/1 and rallied to within less than four lengths (6th) without threatening.

My "confidence" that I was going to get a BC winner sooner or later was sustained by my out of town selections.  In the first of the five I played, Shanghai Superfly was much the best in the Parx maiden claiming sprint.  As I told Kim, hard to believe that a Parx maiden claiming runner could be worth a bet at 2/5 but he was.  I came right back at Aqueduct where Dark Money was easily best in a nw2L allowance.  Prior to the race I was encouraged to see that both NYRA analysts liked him and they commented that on figures alone he was a legitimate single in the multi-race wagers.  I considered upping the bet, but didn't.  Also a winner at 2/5.  My first of two picks at Gulfstream Park West was Catquick in another maiden claimer.  I had a lot of mixed emotions watching the race as the races during October and November from "Gulfstream" are run at what was formerly Calder Race Course.  This was always "home" to me during the racing year from Kentucky Derby Day until December when Gulfstream's winter meeting opened.  But once GP went to year-round racing Calder racing faded away until their ownership - Churchill Downs Incorporated - sold the 40 racing dates in the fall to Gulfstream.  This IS a good thing because it allows Calder Casino to stay open under the state law that requires forty live racing dates in order to operate a casino, and it's good for Gulfstream in that it allows the facility/track to be refurbished and brings a real "opening day" feel to the return to the Hallandale Beach track.  Catquick stalked the pace and blew by late to win going away.  The one pick that was NOT odds-on in the program, Nicoletti's Best, didn't win.  But I closed the out-of-town plays with another score at Aqueduct when Payne wore down the leader in deep stretch.  So I was happy with my four-for-five "handicapping the handicappers" plays.

Next up on the Breeders' Cup schedule was the first of my "best" bets - Omaha Beach in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.  In the lead-up to the race nearly everyone agreed that Omaha Beach might be the best thoroughbred, in talent, who was running on the card.  And he looked very strong.  He'd come back off a long layoff to run down one of the top two choices in the BC Sprint to be run later today in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, and just looked to be better going a route of ground today.  He broke sharply as the even-money favorite, but then Mike Smith allowed him to settle near the back of the field.  "That's not good" I thought with the way the track was playing.  And sure enough, as they turned for home and Omaha Beach was gobbling up ground, the long-time leader under Irad Ortiz at 9/1 just kept right on going.  Second.  Very disappointing.  My BET of the Weekend was next in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.  Sistercharlie was unbeaten this year and clearly the best North American female on turf.  BUT she too came from off the pace.  Still, I had confidence that jockey John Velazquez wouldn't let them get too far away.  The on-air analysts kept talking about the European Iridesa who was trained by young conditioner Joseph O'Brien, son of the internationally acclaimed trainer Aidan O'Brien.  Joseph O'Brien had the distinction of being the youngest jockey every to win a Breeders' Cup race when he rode St. John's Abbey to an upset victory in the 2012 Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs - I was there and had that one when he won as an 18yo.  He was interviewed prior to the race and it was brought out that if Iridessa won O'Brien would be the youngest TRAINER to ever win a BC race.  She got the jump on Sistercharlie and won at 13/1 while I ran third.  I wish I'd paid more attention to John Velazquez prior to the race as apparently he'd said several times that Sistercharlie might not like the firm going as she liked some give to the ground.  And sure enough in the interview afterwards he remarked that she just didn't care for the ground - she ran well, tried hard, but didn't like the going at all.

Race 8 was the Breeders' Cup Sprint and in terms of talent it was clearly the deepest and most competitive event of the two days.  But I thought that Steve Asmussen's Mitole was just a standout, my third straight "prime time" bet.  The analysts on television kept talking about him maybe falling victim to a pace duel, but in all the races he'd won for me (nearly every one this year) he was a pace presser and I thought he'd sit just off the speed.  That was exactly what happened and as they turned for home he had dead aim on the 3yo speedy sensation Shancelot.  I felt bad for that one because after starting his career 3-for-3, including a track record-breaking effort in the Grade 2 Amsterdam he'd been a heart-breaking second twice in a row, being nailed in the shadow of the wire.  But today I knew, I just KNEW that Mitole was the better sprinter and was certain he'd catch him.  At the 16th pole Shancelot was hanging on begging for the wire, but Mitole had all the momentum and he rolled on by to win going away.  I gladly cashed for nearly $60 on my first Breeders' Cup winner of the weekend.

Next was the Breeders' Cup Mile.  This has traditionally been one of my favorite races and I've enjoyed good success in picking the winners.  Now to be fair I had two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan in both his wins and I had Goldikova in all three of her victories.  This year the field looked very well matched but still I had a pick that I felt fairly good about.  The first factor in my selection was that none of the Europeans looked really strong.  Several people liked Aidan O'Brien's Circus Maximus, who would leave the gate as one of the favorites.  But I just wasn't that impressed.  When I handicapped the card for the final time to make selections I did reconsider that one because he was DRF handicapper Brad Free's BEST BET, and Free is the only public handicapper still on the job who's picks make me think twice if I don't agree with him.  But still, I wasn't convinced.  Secondly, I was against the likely favorite Got Stormy.  She'd been sensational when she won the Grade 1 Fourstardave at Saratoga, prompting her trainer Mark Casse to publicly say she might be their next Teppin - who'd won this race and won at Royal Ascot.  But unlike Teppin, Got Stormy could not beat the boys again in her final prep at Woodbine in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile.  I thought perhaps she was just a tad over the top.  So that led me to who I'd bet in the Fourstardave, Chad Brown's Uni.  I had her in her first start in the Perfect Sting, then she was too far back (and encountered trouble) in the 4stardave.  Missed her in her sensational prep winning the Grade 1 First Lady at Keeneland when we were cruising.  But what really caught my eye was Brad Free's comments that in her last three starts her closing times.  When you see a runner run the final furlong in :12 they are flying, so to go the last quarter mile in :24 is really booking it.  Well, in turf racing it's all about that final half mile and in Uni's last three races she'd blitzed the final quarter in an amazing :22.1, :22.1 and in her most recent an unbelievable :21.7.  My lone concern was not her wide draw (post 11) but the fact that the turf had been so speed-oriented.  Down the backstretch she was 10th of 13 runners, but the pace was quick.  She began picking off runners into the far turn and had a full head of steam as she turned five wide, with Got Stormy just inside of her 4-wide, for home.  The two raced head-and-head for about a 16th of a mile before Uni found another gear and drew off.  She'd run the final quarter mile in :11.3, and best of all she paid a nice $9.20 so I cashed for nearly $50 on my second consecutive BC winner.  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO.

Next was, in my opinion, the second most likely winner on the day:  Midnight Bisou in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.  She sported a perfect 7-for-7 record for the year (and I'd had her in ALL SEVEN), and she'd won from well off the pace to pressing the leader.  She looked really hard to beat unless, as I remarked "someone runs a 'rock star' kind of race."  Of all those in the field the one and only one I'd NEVER have bet was Keeneland specialist Blue Prize.  She'd won last year's Grade 1 Spinster and then was fourth in the BC Distaff, behind Midnight Bisou.  She'd won this year's Spinster and she just didn't figure to me.  But as I watched the race unfold (while sitting at center ice of the BB&T arena watching our Panthers drill the Detroit Red Wings 4-0, yay!) I knew there could be problems because much like his ride on Omaha Beach, Mike Smith had her near the back running eighth of eleven.  She made a menacing move and seemed to have dead aim on Blue Prize who'd emerged with the lead.  But through the final 16th she couldn't make up any ground and ran second.  WOW.  The Breeders' Cup Turf was next and my pick was Chad Brown's Bricks and Mortar.  He'd won every start this season, kicking it off with the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf, where he was my choice, and I'd cashed on him every time.  He was the favorite for "Horse of the Year," but of all my "best" bets he was the one I was most concerned about.  He'd never been a mile and a half, and this was such a concern Brown his his ownership had debated (a) not running in the BC, (b) running in the Mile - which admittedly was probably too short, or (c) running here which was probably beyond his best distance.  But they settled here and I decided that much like the BC Mile there wasn't any European who looked outstanding so I went with the best horse.  He made his patented big move on the turn and got to the leader, 50/1 longshot United.  But it wasn't until the final two jumps that he edged clear.  Probably locked up HOY unless Mitole is given consideration (after winning Gr 1 wins at 6f, 7f, and a mile).

In the final race, the Classic, my pick Elate ran fourth in what I considered not only a wide-open race, but a less than formidable group of older handicap runners.  So for the day Saturday I was a solid 7-for-17 on the day, I'll take that and as I remarked on my web page, I'm satisfied with that.  And so begins the countdown to the 2020 Breeders' Cup at Keeneland!

Some fashion shots from the big weekend - next year I'll be sporting my best racing fashion wear :)

Canadian Millions Night / Labor Day Weekend

Wednesday August 28:  Canadian Millions Night

One of my favorite things about Woodbine racing is their Wednesday night racing programs under the lights.  And of those my MOST favorite is in late August when they have six Ontario-bred stakes races.  I've always seemed to have good luck on that night and my original plan was to be in Toronto on this particular Wednesday night.  But when my European river cruise adventure with my sister was cancelled last fall and re-scheduled for this upcoming Labor Day weekend I knew I couldn't fit both trips in, and enjoy them.  When I read an article about the upcoming stakes I KNEW who my "Bet of the Night" would be, but as I began handicapping the card I thought that in the opener, a maiden event, there was a very strong win candidate.  The bad news was that Get The News was already an 8x maiden - I have an "unwritten rule" that after six tries it's time to look somewhere else or pass the race.  But in this race (and the most important rule in handicapping is, "there are NO RULES in handicapping") the rivals facing the favorite had career BEST figures of 56, 53, 58, 56, and 53.  By contrast Get The News had earned Beyers of 69, 71, 73, 80, and 76 in her LAST SIX starts.  It would seem highly unlikely she would lose.  I tripled the bet and she rolled handily.

The second was the first of the stakes, the OLG Halton Stakes going a mile and a half on the turf and it looked very wide open to me.  Three of the runners had never been a mile and a half and four others had zero wins at the distance.  Only English Illusion had a win, and he had two.  Didn't think he was a clear winner, but enough of an edge to bet.  Fifth at 8/5 odds.  The third was the BET of the Night with 20x winner Pink Lloyd.  He's a multiple graded stakes winner and has won the last two editions of this Kenora Stakes at six furlongs.  AND he was 15-for-16 at this sprint distance.  Never going to get rich but he was a near certain winner and he demolished the field under wraps.

In both the next added money event I couldn't find anyone with an edge.  In Race 5, the OLD Simcoe Stakes for two-year-olds I thought Goldmine Cat was worthy of a play.  Went favored at 7/5 but was just third.  The sixth was the OLG Miskoka Stakes for fillies and mares.  And I said this in the analysis, if it weren't for reading DRF handicapper Ron Gierkink's analysis I would not have bet this race, much less had this top choice.  But, as I've said many times, when handicapping you have to use all the tools available to you.  There isn't any single tool that will consistently put you on the winner.  Gierkink commented that Blessed Truly had such a troubled trip last time that it was too detailed to list in the space allotted.  So I watched the replay and indeed she had MANY excuses.  She broke inward, rushed up and then was sawed off not once but twice.  Fell to the back of the field, re-rallied four wide on the turn and blew by nearly the entire field and was second closing in on the leader.  But then she evened out.  Tonight she had top rider Eurico Rosa DaSilva and with a clean break I thought she'd outrun her 15/1 odds.  I decided to make her a "Daymaker" and doubled the bet.  She was razor sharp out of the gate, went right to the front and never looked back.  Didn't get nearly the 15/1 price in the DRF program but I did get a very nice $9.40 payoff which led to collecting nearly $50 on this upset pick.  Good job Grandpa, as my grandson Oliver would say :)

Race 7 was the OLG Elgin Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.  Kingsport was even money in the program and looked REALLY hard to look past.  He'd paired figures in his last two and BOTH would beat the combined 102 Beyers earned by the rest of the field.  With scratches the field was reduced to only three runners and that concerned me.  Funny things happen with the flow of the race in situations like that.  Kingsport came with his run, but it was desperately close.  Still got the win and after missing with a minimum play in the finale I finished a strong four for six with a tidy profit for the night!

Saturday August 31
This is the final weekend of the Summer Racing Season and it coordinates well with my personal schedule as next Tuesday I leave for Europe with my sister for two weeks.  Then I'll "take a break" with some spot plays up to the Breeders' Cup and then be ready to go Opening Day at Gulfstream the first weekend of December.  With the Labor Day holiday on Monday Monmouth changed their schedule to race on Sat-Sun-Mon, and in keeping with my schedule, this is their last weekend of having racing three days a week, so I'll no longer handicap their every card.  Well, the plan was for me to fly to Columbus on Sunday evening so I could enjoy college football and racing on Saturday.  But those plans had to be changed when Hurricane Dorian came calling.  The forecast late in the week put it in the vicinity of So Florida Sunday and I didn't want to take a chance having the flight cancelled, so I left Saturday at 5:30.  I was able to watch the first four selections of the day at home before Kim and I jumped into our Uber ride to the airport.  In the opener at Saratoga I had Chad Brown's Structor who was debuting in this 2yo MSW on the turf.  The $850K sales grad had a slew of works and I knew he'd probably be favored, but also knew he was a likely winner.  The TVG analysts both thought he was overbet, but for me you either find the winner or you don't.  He was....and he did.

The opener at Monmouth was on the turf and Paco Lopez was riding the probable favorite, Devoted Kitten.  This one had begun his career for Chad Brown but now ran for Danny Gargan.  He'd been a best of the rest second last time out and just looked way too good for this group.  He was.... 2-for-2!  In the minutes leading up to Monmouth's second I was thinking how I so often have the favorite, but here I had Playwright who was a more-than-fair price.  Paco Lopez for Danny Gargan again.  But one of my favorite angles was in play - leading up to this race Playwright had posted a best-of-82 bullet work.  YOWZA.  He rallied on the far turn, came with a determined and sustained bid to wear down the leaders in deep stretch and post a generous $10.40 upset!  I'm three-for-three.

I missed in the Grade 2 Prioress at Saratoga when 6x, unbeaten filly Break Even was caught fifty yards from the wire.  And then we headed to the airport in our Uber ride.  As we arrived at the airport I was disappointed that I'd been wrong about the terminal Kim's flight originated in.  Our plan had been to have lunch together and then head to our gates, but she was flying out of Terminal 3 and I was in Terminal 1.  We said our good-byes and I watched college football while I ate.  I pulled up the next three races on my sheet as I sat there and in Monmouth's fourth I had Gadget Man who'd finished in front of five of seven rivals today and the other two had finished behind horses he'd beaten.  Easily at 3/5 odds.  Next up was the featured Presious Passion going a mile and half on the turf.  Presious Passion was one of my MOST favorite runners for years.  His "thing" was to play "catch me as you can" and ALWAYS went soooo fast that everyone knew he'd never last.  But he almost always did, including a near miss in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf.  Near the end of his career I'd made this collage to commemorate all the money I'd made on him.  Good times....

Today's race looked to go through Postulation who had Paco Lopez in the irons.  He was the only one in the field with a win at the distance and that came in a graded event.  I found it ironic that as the field hit the back stretch the 10/1 front runner was WAY out in front, a la Presious Passion.  But I knew he'd never last.  Postulation rated in second to the turn, made his move to catch him and then drew clear at the furlong marker.  And now I'm four-for-five on the day.  Oh it's a good day my friends!

I missed two straight after this, watching them while I was in the waiting area of the terminal.  My first flight took me from Fort Lauderdale to Baltimore and as I touched down I pulled up the replays and watched my picks in Monmouth's 11th and 12th BOTH win.  Anytime Anyplace went wire to wire in a turf sprint at even money - nice with a double investment.  And in the last play of the day on the Jersey Shore Oceanographer ran to his 2/5 odds and scored easily.  For the day at Monmouth I was an amazing six-for-seven.  WOW.  I missed in back-to-back Saratoga graded stakes and as I arrived at the gate in Baltimore it was three minutes to the post of the final play of the day, the Grade 2 John Mabee at Del Mar.  Vasilika has been a win machine for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer but disappointed last time out a month ago.  How much of that had to do with the race being away from her favorite/home track at Santa Anita and/or that regular rider Flavian Prat was out of town is up for debate.  But I thought today she would redeem herself.  She sat mid-pack to the turn, began inhaling them, but in mid-stretch seemed to have a lot of work still to do.  One final acceleration.......PHOTO FINISH!  As I stood at the gate and watched at least eight different angles of slow motion replays I was very uncertain, but then the numbers came up......

I WIN!  For the day I was a remarkable 8-for-13 and again had a big profit.

Sunday September 1
I watched the races from my Mom's today and only played the Monmouth card, but it was a good one with not one but FOUR stakes including the Grade 3 Red Bank.  Through the first seven races I only had two picks and they both ran fourth.  Included in there was the first stakes event, a 2yo racing going a mile on the turf - no way.  The ninth began a string of three straight stakes where I DID have selections that I liked quite a bit.  In the seventh it was the Safely Kept Stakes going five furlongs on the turf.  I thought it was oh-so-obvious that the winner would be Goldwood.  She has had a sensational summer on the Jersey Shore, having gone three-for-three, all in stakes company winning the Politely Stakes in May, the Unbridled Essence in June, and then the Incredible Revenge three weeks ago.  But I was surprised when listening to the two Monmouth analysts online prior to the race when BOTH went against her saying it was a bad draw, not her distance, and that she wouldn't was vulnerable.  Really?  I get the "value" argument, but hardly that she was vulnerable.  Right to the front and wired the field paying a more than generous $4.60 allowing me to cash in for almost $35.

It was appropriate that she won as well, as her owners (and thus the colors she sported) were from the Colts Neck Stable who campaigned champion Safely Kept, one of the best sprinters of all time.  She, yes a filly, beat the boys in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint as a highlight of her career.  Missed in the tenth when 7/5 favorite, and unbeaten 2yo Liberate stopped turning for home after pressing the pace going long for the first time.  The eleventh was the featured stakes and it had one of my most favorite warriors, Divisidero.......

In 2015 after running a very close third in a graded stakes at Gulfstream early in his three-year-old campaign I made him my UPSET Special at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day.  Went off at 9/1, paying $19.20 and WON!  That's the picture at the top left.  In 2016, now a 4yo, he came back in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve and that day and again Divisidero was the UPSET Special.  Flying from the back (bottom right photo above) to score going away and paying $15.40.  In 2017 I thought there was no way he pays double digits again, but he was a prime time play for me as he left the gate at odds of 7/2 and paid an even $9 bailing me out for the day as I cashed for nearly $90.  Since then he'd raced FOURTEEN times, very often as my top choice and had managed to score only once (in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap in July 2018, when I did NOT have him).  Yet over that span he was always close with only loss by five lengths and with six losses by less than two lengths, one of which was a 4th place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile beaten only 3/4 of a length at 43/1 odds, and I had a $5 ticket on him!!!!  This summer he was second as the 6/5 favorite in a Laurel stakes and most recently missed by a head here as the 3/5 favorite, both times when I had him.  Both times I thought he SHOULD win, but didn't have a lot of confidence.  Today, I just felt it was his day.  And while he went off at 8/5 he was NOT the favorite.  I tripled the bet on him.......me sat patiently about three lengths off the lead in a short field then made his move.  Swooped to the front as they turned for home and drove to the wire clear by more than a length.  I was more happy for "my old friend" to get back in the winner's circle than for cashing the ticket, but that also made me happy as I closed the day 2-for-6 and about even for the day.

Monday September 2
The final day of the summer season; the final day of the Monmouth Handicapping Project; and the last day before heading off to Europe on a Viking River cruise!  Bit of a let-down today as I only won with one selection, but reasonably it would have been hard to continue to win at the big percentage that I was operating at.  For the weekend I was a sharp 45% - wow :)

And for the summer I had the highest winning percentage that I've ever had in the twelve plus years that I've kept records.  Just a great summer.

NJ Festival Extended Weekend

Wednesday August 21 - Sunday August 25

The "weekend" started off with racing on Wednesday night from Woodbine (haven't done that in a while, and next week is Woodbine Millions Night) and continued Thursday from Europe before the usual Friday card from Monmouth.  Then Travers Day from Saratoga highlighted Saturday's card and finally it was New Jersey Breeders' Festival Day on Sunday at Monmouth.  The weekend was also highlighted by the start of the college football season as my Florida Gators took on the Miami Hurricanes in a "Pre-Season Kickoff Classic" from Orlando.  Wasn't the best-played game, but opening games rarely are, but it was exciting with the Mighty Gators winning 24-20.  

Wednesday August 21:  Night Time Racing From Woodbine

First post was at 6:45 pm and I had six selections from the eight races.  When I logged on about 10 pm to watch the replays, I opened the first race and as the final horse loaded in the gate I noticed there was no one in stall #1 - my horse.  Scratched.  Sigh.....  On to the second, a MSW going five and a half furlongs for two-year-olds.  One of the only ones with experience Avie's Samurai had broken in the air then contested a :45 and change pace before weakening.  The experience and early speed should spell the difference.  Drew off with authority as the 3/2 favorite.  In the fifth (no bets in races 3 or 4) my pick faded to 6th at 4/1.  The sixth was the night's feature, the third leg of the "Woodbine Turf Sprint Series" and I liked Reconfigure.  Six of the eight had raced against each other, the perfect situation for a "new shooter."  There were two:  one was a 20/1 outsider who was beaten a combined 39 1/2 lengths in his last three and my pick Reconfigure.  He had rallied to be third against second level allowance rivals first off the claim last out.  Drops today and is lightly raced (6/4-1-1) who's never run poorly.  The pace HE faced in his last three were all much faster than anything anyone else in here has raced.  Sat near the back on the rail through the turn, swung five wide into the lane but was still sixth at the furlong pole.  Then found another gear and swept by in the final 100 yards to win going away as the "best" of the night.

In the seventh Subzero Plus went right to the front in a claiming sprint and easily wired the field.  And in the eighth and finale Dulcibelle followed the strategy employed by Reconfigure....saved ground on the rail to the stretch, swung out four wide and blew by in an instant then drew off by multiple lengths to cap a wonderful 4-for-5 evening of racing!  Whoooo hooooo.

Thursday August 22:  York Race Course Ebor Festival
I had read in online publications that on Wednesday Crystal Ocean was running in the 10 furlong Group 1 Juddmonte International and on Thursday Enable was running in the 12 furlong Group 1 Yorkshire Darley Oaks.  After the two had dueled in a dramatic stretch run a month ago with Enable winning her 12th of thirteen career starts somehow Crystal Ocean was still ranked as the World's #1 race horse.  As much as I didn't agree I thought enough of the ranking to play him Wednesday and he was nailed on the wire.  Made me wonder if Enable would be vulnerable.  She faced only three others, but one of them was the multiple group winner Magical whom she'd had a dramatic stretch duel with at Churchill Downs in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf where the two fillies beat all the best males in the world.  She'd topped Magical earlier in this year also.  My only concern with the short field was the race flow....who would lead, would Enable have a target?  But the day of the race I read that she'd been on the lead previously and I thought world-class jockey Frankie Detorri might just use that strategy.  Indeed, right to the front and a mile and a half later she was widening away from Magical as a "prime time" winner for me.

Friday August 23
An unusually low percentage win day for me at Monmouth as I went 2-for-7, but I hit with the day's "best" in the 2nd with Lasting Legacy and again with a double investment so that for the day it was a minuscule loss.  And I took heart in the fact that for the week I was still 6-for-13, almost 50%.  Truly, you can't expect to win them all.  Friday night was also the opening game for our son Jeff's team in California, the Santa Margarita High Eagles.  They came away with a resounding win which made Daddy and both boys very happy!

Saturday August 24:  Travers Day at Saratoga
For several summers it's been my experience that I do far, far better handicapping at Monmouth than at Saratoga so that's where I do my daily selections.  With today's stakes-laden card - seven graded stakes including six Gr 1 events - I wondered how the day would turn out.  To my surprise it was another low percentage day at Monmouth, but I had a good day at the Spa.  With it being such a big day first post was at 11:35 am.  Today was also the first day of college football so I watched "College Game Day" from 9 am to noon, with there being the initial overlap.  But I was glad that the only game today was the Gators' game which didn't kick off until 7 pm so I could focus on the racing.  In the Saratoga opener, a nw2x allowance on the turf EITHER of the Chad Brown-trained, Klaravich Stable-owned runners would have been odds on.  But as an entry they were tough to go past.  Still, turning for home they were at the back and just beginning to run....at the sixteenth pole and still not in front yet, but Frontier Market had momentum and was up in the final strides as my first winner on the day.

Look closely at jockey Irad Ortiz - hard to tell, but he'd dropped his whip at the furlong marker and I'd thought it odd watching the first slo-mo replay that he was adjusting his goggles in the final yards, but upon further review, he took them off and used them as his whip.  THAT is why he's world class.  No play in the second and missed in the third.  Monmouth's opener, oddly, was the feature race of the day - the Unbridled Essence going a mile and a half on the turf.  My top pick was Sky Full of Stars, but he scratched.  I was going to pass the race but noticed my second choice, Homeland Security was the odds-on favorite in the betting.  Re-read my analysis/comments and re-examined the pp's then went with him.  He collared the leader in mid-stretch and drew off for my second win, first stakes winner of the day.

I was second at 3/5 in the second at Monmouth and then the first of all the graded stakes began at Saratoga.  The fifth was the Grade 1 Forego.  I'd had big wins with Mitole earlier in the spring/summer, but last time out he disappointed.  I thought that race came with excuses and I was hopeful that I'd get a more "fair" price than what I thought he should be which was about 1/5.  Sure enough the crowd let him slip away at 4/5 and he was dominant, allowing me to cash for nearly $30.

I'm off to a good start with three wins from five picks!  But it was to be a long afternoon with the next thirteen selections over a span of nearly four hours only producing one more winner.  AND there were an inordinate amount of second place finishers..... the fourth at Monmouth saw me run second at 3/2 odds; the fifth at Monmouth I was 2nd at 4/5 after leading into the stretch.  And in the ninth I ran second at Monmouth at 5/2 odds.  The Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga I wasn't convinced that any of them were clear-cut choices but I went with an improving Chad Brown runner, 5th at 2/1.  In the Grade 1 Jerkens EVERYONE was excited to see Jorge Navarro's Shancelot who was going to be odds-on and clearly a wire-to-wire winner after earning the best sprint Beyer (121) any three-year-old had earned in the 47 year history of Beyer speed figures.  I thought he WAS a bounce candidate, but even if he digressed to his previous, a 100 BSF he'd win by daylight.  Clear into the lane at 1/5 he got tired and was caught in a blanket finish by four runners.  The winner of the photo ironically had been my pick in a $75K listed event at Laurel when Keith and I were there and the owner was so livid we saw him come storming down the stairs inside to go berate the rider.  And here he wins a $600 Grade 1 at double digit odds.  Wow.  I was ninth in the Gr 2 Ballston Spa on the turf with a Chad Brown runner at 2/1 - his "other" horse won at 7/1 odds, wow-squared.  I missed in two races where I zigged when I should have zagged.  I went back and forth in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign between Midnight Bissou who was unbeaten this season and Elate who had been my Bet of the Weekend when Keith and I were on our Track Trip in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap.  In the end I went with Elate despite the fact she'd lost to 'Midnight twice this season because today's race was at 9 furlongs and 'Midnight was a perfect 9-for-9 at 8 1/2 furlongs - the distance of those two wins over Elate - and 0-for-3 at today's 9f trip.  It was an epic stretch duel with Elate getting the jump, getting caught and then the two going head-up and head-down to the wire.  Soooo close.  Then in Monmouth's 11th I went back and forth between Proper Manners and She's So Shea D.  I'd bet the latter earlier in her career and it would make a great story because the name reminds me of one of my all time favorite ex-students, Christy Shade (who's Facebook "name" is Sea Shadey).  I was third behind 'Shadey.

In the Grade 1 Travers, the highlight of the day I thought it could go any of six or seven ways and my third choice won when I finished fifth at 7/1 odds.  Ironically two of the three next wins to close the day came with horses I originally didn't plan to bet.  In the twelfth at Saratoga it was a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint in second level allowance company.  Looked wide open to me, but I noted that IF the also eligible runner, #13 Dowse's Beach were to draw in I'd like him despite the wide post.  Sure enough, there were four scratches and the Jason Servis runner got in.  All winter he'd been nearly unbeatable with jockey Irad Ortiz up and the two scored here in a tight photo on the wire.

The double-investment returned nearly $35.  The 13th at Saratoga had originally been a "PASS" for me.  But early Saturday morning I was going through various web sites and ran across Jeff Siegle's "Day-Maker" video picks for Saratoga.  His second one was my top choice in the finale at the Spa, a maiden special going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  I liked Chad Brown's filly, Magic Star who'd drawn a $500K sales bid and looked to be any kind with solid works.  Well, Siegel's video pointed out that she'd been working with the top 3yo filly in the country, Dunbar Road and running stride for stride with her.

I decided to triple the bet.  She got bet down to favoritism and as they spun into the lane I thought maybe I'd made a bad decision....

But she found a seam, got outside and blew by under a very confident hand ride.  Mark this one down as a future stakes star!  The triple investment resulted in a payoff of nearly $40.  So in two races I collected over $70 with two bets that originally I had no intention of making.  Gotta love the racing game :)  Post time for that last race in New York was 6:54 pm.  My last bet of the day came at Del Mar where the feature race was the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien.  Last year Catalina Cruiser had become the first thoroughbred ever to win the two-turn Grade 2 San Diego Handicap and come back to win the one-turn, 7 furlong Grade 2 O'Brien.  He'd won the San Diego a month ago in a workman like effort and I thought he'd step up and run huge today.  But when he made his move turning for home he was immediately challenged by the second choice, Giant Expectations who had good numbers, but had not won a race in two years - compared to Catalina Cruiser who sported a 7-for-8 career mark with five graded stakes wins over the last two years.  At about the furlong marker 'Giant got his head in front and I thought it was over, but the champion battled back and won in a gutsy performance.

So for the day, closing with three straight wins, I finished a good 35% (7-for-20).

Sunday August 25:  NJ Thoroughbred Festival Day
Topped the long weekend off with wight selections on the 12-race NJ state-bred card.  The three race winning streak continued from the end of Saturday with not one but FOUR straight wins at Monmouth.  When I was handicapping the card I was hesitant after the first four races because I really try to evaluate each race and each bet independently of the others.  So if I like a horse, like Bramble Bay in the opener enough to play a triple-investment, that SHOULDN'T affect how much I want to play on the next race.  But after passing the second I felt as strongly about the third race play.  Then when I handicapped the fourth, I thought that I'm Listening was an even stronger play.  Am I over-evaluating and playing too much money?  Then when I came to the 10th race I liked Dial Operator enough to go "prime time."  Well if that's the case, I honestly can say I don't like him as much as I'm Listening in the fourth, so I upped that bet.  As the day began I hoped that I wasn't throwing all my money away, but I've learned that it's the long run that counts.  One day to the next I can't worry about how much I'm betting or winning/losing.  I know over the long haul that I'll win consistently.  And so in the first Bramble Bay left the gate as the prohibitive 1/5 favorite and won for fun.  In the third Kodiak Katie was well off the pace into the turn, but came running in the lane.  Caught the leaders inside the furlong marker and edged clear to win by daylight.  Also a short price at 4/5, and I couldn't help but think that I could lose with I'm Listening with my $30 investment and be sitting here 2-for-3 and behind for the day.  But full speed ahead.  The fourth was an entry level allowance going a mile on the turf.  Of the combined seventy-seven Beyers earned by the rest of the field, there was one, count them ONE figure that could top the LAST FIVE earned by my pick, I'm Listening.  The field had a 6-for-77 record on the turf, while 'Listening was 2-for-7 and 1-for-3 at the distance.  And she was the DRF best of the day.  Turning for home Paco Lopez had him in hand and came to the leader at the furlong pole, asked for a spurt of acceleration.  He cleared and was geared down to a bigger than it looked win.

In the fifth, it was the first of the three state-bred stakes, the Charles Hess Handicap.  As I began looking at the runners I thought it was obvious when I got to #3 Golden Brown.  Big Beyers, big wins here vs. state-breds and exiting a strong try at Saratoga.  But then I came to the six horse, Sunny Ridge who also was a strong candidate and he'd won the Gr 3 Salvatore Mile, HERE (for me).  I thought they were pretty evenly matched but I just "felt" like Golden Brown was the better play.  And as I noted in my analysis, maybe I was making too big a deal of it, but Paco Lopez had once ridden Sunny Ridge and while he had not been up recently, the most recent win jockey was at Saratoga, but Lopez stuck with Golden Brown.  Sure enough Golden Brown was closer to the front than Sunny Ridge, moved first and cleared first.  Then Sunny Ridge was flat through the lane.  SCORE!

Just my "luck" that even though I went against the 3/5 favorite, my "upset" pick only paid 7/5.  The last four picks of the day, ALL of them, ran second.  At 4/5, 1/5, 9/5 and 3/5.  Still, who can complain about a 4-for-8 day at the track?  And for the week.....43% wins!!!!

Next week, being Labor Day Weekend there's no racing at Monmouth on Friday, but live racing Saturday, Sunday and Monday.  I leave Tuesday for Europe with my sister so next weekend will be the official end of the Summer Racing Season.  Once I return I'll back off for the Fall Championship Season and begin to "rest and recharge" for the Gulfstream Championship Meet beginning in December.  Are we really talking about that already?  WOW.

NJ Festival Weekend Highlights

Alabama Weekend / Oliver Bday Party

August 16 - 18

It was another highly successful handicapping weekend, highlighted by the birthday celebration for the now 3yo Oliver (our youngest grandson) and a milestone win for me on Sunday.  Here's how the weekend played out from Orlando.

Friday August 16

I had completed handicapping selections and analysis for all three days of the weekend prior to our heading to Orlando Friday morning.  So before driving to O-town I made my bets and then later in the evening I watched the replays.  In the very first race of the day, with my very first bet of the weekend Mission Driven came from last to first to score on the grass at a nice $6.20.  In the hunt with the next four bets but no money which brought us to the ninth and Friday finale.  As I wrote in my analysis, that it seems like nearly every day there's a virtual "single" which runs away at minuscule odds, and this was the one for today.  Somehow the DRF early line made Whyruawesome a 4/1 pick in this Starter Optional Claiming sprint.  But I knew he'd never be even close to even money.  He was exiting a big win over SECOND LEVEL ALLOWANCE foes and today was dropping all the way down to an $8K starter with a huge 96 Beyer in his pocket.  Seriously, 4-1?  Sent out by Jorge Navarro with jockey Angel Suarez (a 32% winner for the barn), he just looked overwhelmingly like the winner.  Added to the appeal that hot-riding Paco Lopez was sitting out the finale so no magical form reversal was in the works.  Dueled for about a quarter of a mile and then opened up under a confident ride to win without taking a deep breath as the "prime time" play of the day.

Saturday August 17:  Alabama Stakes Day / Del Mar Oaks Day
To be fair, full disclosure, today was Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar, their signature race and big day headliner.  But I knew before I even looked at the Form for Del Mar that there was no big play there.  It was a wide open field in a wide-open division where both the heavy hitters from the handicap division on the west coast were sitting it out.  I had handicapped the Monmouth card, the Saratoga card, and Del Mar.  Once the birthday party was over, the guests had left and the birthday boy had headed off to bed I again opened up the laptop and watched the replays track by track.  At Monmouth I missed in the opener but watched Colorado Grandslam easily wire the third going a two-turn mile.  In the fifth I knew, and I mean I KNEW that Jaywalk was going down in flames.  How?  Because I'd never liked her, even after she won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies off a win in the Grade 1 Frizette.  But when she made her 3yo debut at Gulfstream in the Gr 2 Davona Dale as everyone's single, I was on board and she didn't finish in the money.  I knew I'd been right so in the Grade 1 Ashland and Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks I avoided her - she lost both.  Went against her in the Gr 3 Delaware Oaks and she reappeared, looking super under new jockey Joe Bravo.  So here she was as the prohibitive favorite and I decided to back her.  Of course you know that she didn't win.  Had an easy lead but when asked to finish, she couldn't hold off the second choice and was second.  I closed out the Jersey Shore card with wins in the sixth and twelfth - both with triple investments to salvage the day at Monmouth.  At Saratoga I ran 3rd twice and 4th twice before the Smart and Fancy, a five furlong turf sprint.  Morticia was the odds-on choice and coasted on the lead, in hand into the stretch.  Asked to sprint away turning for home she spun her wheels and was run down to finish off the board.  Wow.  We now came to the tenth and featured Grade 1 Alabama for 3yo fillies.  I'd seen and won with Point of Honor at Tampa and in the Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan.  But as I noted in my analysis, she was simply cleverly managed - winning both those against less than overwhelming foes.  Today she faced a real star in Dunbar Road.  Chad Brown had entered this filly into the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks off a debut maiden win.  Despite going two turns for the first time, facing winners for the first time, and giving up a ton of experience WITH a short stretch she rallied to just miss in 2nd.  She couldn't get into the Gr 1 Kentucky Oaks so she took some time off and won an allowance for fun.  I had her on Summit of Speed Day. Dunbar Road had blew by the Gr 2 Mother Goose field while really only running about a furlong of the race at full speed.  She was the real deal.  She was mid-pack to the turn, then Point of Honor made her move five wide.....Dunbar Road swung six wide and accelerated past the field to win going away.  I had listed her as the "BET of the DAY" with a $50 wager, but on Saturday morning I wavered thinking maybe I should scale back.  But then I decided I knew she was as good as the wager and that if the crowd did NOT send her off at even money or less I'd make a nice score.  Well, they let her get away at 8/5 odds so I cashed for nearly $140 and was secured a profitable Saturday at the races!

On to Del Mar.....the third was the Grade 3 Green Flash going five furlongs on the turf and 2x BC Turf Sprint champion Stormy Liberal was looking for his first win of the year.  He has run really well on this course and I thought today was the day but I wasn't going all in.  Good thing, an even third.  The fifth was an interesting MSW on the grass.  Parsimony has multiple STAKES placings but cannot get home in front, currently at 0-for-14.  And most of the field had run against each other previously - just the kind of race I like to avoid.  BUT....Successandsurpass had run fifth against several of these despite bobbling at the start, coming off a long break AND making his first North American start.  Today Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was in town and he took the mount.  Looked blocked and too far out of it coming out of the turn but came flying up the rail, through a narrow opening and JUST up in time to win!  The generous $6.80 price led to nearly $35 more to my bankroll.  The ninth was my "best" of the day in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks.  Chad Brown ALWAYS has his turf runners primed for big efforts and if he ships to So Cal from NY you had better watch out.  I'd had Cambier Parc at Gulfstream this winter on Holy Bull Day.  She'd been outrun in the Gr 3 Edgewood, then won a Grade 3 in NY.  Her most recent was another loss to the suddenly amazingly talented Concrete Rose, but it also was going a mile and a quarter which just might have been outside her reach.  I thought today's nine furlongs trip was ideal, and not coincidentally that was the distance of her last win.  As the field hit the far turn she looked too far back but was picking off horses.  Then she swung wide, oh-so-wide she had to have lost a half dozen lengths, and that's that I thought as I watched the live feed late Saturday.  Then suddenly with a furlong left she found another gear and blew by the field to win going away!  The Gr 1 Pacific Classic was a toss-up and I was nearly positive it would result in a big-priced winner.  I had a small bet on Tenfold at 12/1 and he was a good fourth behind the 9/1 winner.

And so it was a wonderful Saturday at the races, after a great birthday party.  I thought this "Saratoga at Sunset" photo was a great way to end the day!

Sunday August 18
Last week when I was writing up the final numbers for the weekend it occurred to me that I was closing in on a milestone win.  Counted them up and saw that when I got my tenth win of the weekend I'd hit it.  I was nearly certain I'd get it this weekend, but both Friday and Saturday saw me win at a "good" 33%+ but below the last few weeks where I'd scored at better than 40%.  So it came down to Sunday where I had six picks.  I just needed two wins to hit the magical number.  I got the first one in the seventh when Guns of Steel "...embarrassed the competition..." as track announcer Frank Mirahmadi called it.  Thought for sure I'd get it in the next when I'm A Cool Man (would have been appropriate I thought, ha ha ha) at 3/5, but he was just second.  The last race of the day was the Jersey Derby and I had Chad Brown's Standard Deviation.  Jersey Joe Bravo rode him behind the speed and then made a bold move on the turn.  Quickly swept by, circling the embattled leaders and drawing off to WIN!

And with that win I had victory NUMBER 8000 since I began keeping detailed statistics and journaling my adventures. back in 2005-6.  So Sunday night after I'd watched the replays I went back through my stored files and found a photo of me with Kim at Calder one afternoon where we'd gone out for lunch in the clubhouse and to watch a couple races.  I won the race we saw - funny, I remember that afternoon so vividly - and I made this "commemorative collage" .....

An another excellent summer weekend was complete!

Racing Highlights
(Bday Cake Candles Included)

Birthday Party Pics